The 2 Lifespan 5 Billion Year Plan
The Problems
Longevity
The Sun, Solar System and Earth have existed for 4,500,000,000 years.
The duration of the Sun is estimated at 10,000,000,000 years before it runs out of energy.
It will then expand into a Red Giant and engulf the Earth.
This leaves approx. 5,000,000,000 years of time left for the Earth and humans.
Approximately 100,000,000 lifespans of 50 years each left.
Biosphere
If humans are consider the Earth and all biological life as part of a single support system then another view is that in 2,800,000,000 years the Earth will become uninhabitable due to the expansion of the dying Sun causing a resulting increase in temperature on the Earth and cellular life to be endangered.Source: Swansong Biospheres: Refuges for life and novel microbial biospheres on terrestrial planets near the end of their habitable lifetimes Authors: J. T. O'Malley-James, J. S. Greaves, J. A. Raven, C. S. Cockell 21 Oct 2012
Approximately 56,000,000 lifespans of 50 years each left.
Climate Change and Fossil Fuels
Climate Change dictates that for humans to survive they will have to reduce their use of fossil fuels in order to reduce their output of greenhouse gases. If humans do this they will have to reduce their dependency on fossil fuels by 34% below 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
In 1990 Electricity capacity was 2,838,680,000 kW.
Source: CIA World Factbook 1990
In 2009 Electricity - from fossil fuels was 66.6% of total installed capacity (2009 est.)
Electricity - installed generating capacity: was 5.144 billion kW (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2011
The 2009 generation capacity was therefore 1.8 times the 1990 generation capacity.
Therefore the first thing that will occur will be for generation capacity to reduce to 1990 levels.
This is approximately half that of current generation capacity.
This will also create a need for less fossil fuels to be used.
Climate control restrictions on the amount of fossil fuels will then be applied to the remaining 1990 level of generation capacity.
The end result of this is that humans will be operating on 80% less of 1990 energy levels by 2050.
This severely restricts the ability of humans to use energy, gather resources and adapt environment to survive.
Population, Land, Water
Human population levels are increasing.
The current population; in 2014 - 2015; of the World is approximately 7,000,000,000.
If the population continues to expand at the current rate up to the year 2100 AD then resources, energy and environment would have to be shared amongst 24,800,000,000 people.
Source: "Key Findings". Long-Range Population Projections (PDF). Proceedings of the United Nations Technical Working Group on Long-Range Population Projections (New York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2003. Retrieved July 3, 2010.
The current surface area of Earth is 510,072,000 km².
Approx. 0.6% of the land66 - 351 million ha, 660,000 km², – 3,510,000 km², is human habitation, urban, areas.
Source: Lambin, Eric F.; Meyfroidt, Patrick (1 March 2011
In 2014 the world population is approx. 7,000,000,000.
This equates to 0.0005 km², 500 m² per person.
In 2100 the world population is estimated at approx. 24,800,000,000.
This equates to 0.00014 km², 140 m² per person.
Water is fundamentally necessary for life to exist. Humans can last for 7 days without fresh drinking water.
There is currently a fresh drinking water shortage on the Earth.
The UN predicts that by 2030 half of the worlds population will be in trying to live in areas of high water stress.
Source: http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml
Extrapolating this 2100 AD causes the whole population of the Earth to be placed in high water stress areas.
Summary
There is increasing energy, resource and environment depletion coupled with human population increase that will reduce the human ability to exist on the Earth up to 2100 AD.
Humans have therefore 85 years left to define how long they will survive on Earth or expand out to make a second home elsewhere in the Universe.
Approximately 2 lifespans of 50 years each left.
Solution 1: Stay on the Earth, Evolve, Cope and Die Out.
Considering that humans have existed for 200,000 years an estimation of what humans can achieve in the remaining time can be established.
If a linear evolution is allowed for then there is approximately 85 / 200,000, 0.04% of human comparable evolutionary time remaining.
This timescale would apparently not allow humans to achieve a very high mass to energy to mass technology. Even if they did move from a fossil fuel, carbon, to a Lithium, or Helium 3, or Hydrogen energy economy, it would still be Earth based and their survival level will still deplete.
Solution 2: Colonize the Solar System.
The same longevity issue relating to the Sun, Solar System and Earth necessarily exists for all of the other planets in the solar system. Therefore the planets of the solar system offer no long term survival location for humanity.
Based on current technology, energy, resource and environment use humans will only be able travel to another planet in small numbers. Once they arrive there they will have even more limited resources than they enjoyed on Earth.
Water; the fundamental necessity of life; is less available on all of the other planets in the solar system.
Therefore human survival will be more at risk if they decide to colonize the solar system.
Solution 3: Colonize the nearest Earth like Planet.
The longevity issue relating to the Sun, Solar System and Earth are removed for extra-solar Earth type planets orbiting another star. Therefore they offer a potential long term survival plan for humanity.
Humans will only be able to travel to and exist on another extra solar planet in small numbers. Initially they will have to carry their survival habitats with them, but once landed on the new environment they will have more energy, resources and environment that they can exploit.
The nearest currently identified extra solar planets are
Tau Ceti e. This exo-planet is 11.9 light years away. It is Earth like but about twice its size. Its surface temperatures are estimated at 70 deg c. It appears to have little atmospheric composition.
and
Kepler 298d. It is thought to be an ocean planet with a thick atmosphere.
Neither of these are suitable replacements for an Earth Colony due to their mass, gravitational changes, temperature, land mass and atmospheres.
There is also the problem of travel time.
Our current technology can carry 4 humans over 13.3 AU (Earth to Sun distance) per year.
Source: Boing, Aerojet Rocketdyne, Lockheed Martin, ATK Single Launch System SLS_Mission_Booklet_Jan_2014 – Interstellar Explorer
The trip to Tau Ceti e or Kepler 298 would take
11.9 light years = 11.9 x 63 239.7263 Astronomical Units = 752,553 AU
752,553 AU / 13.3 per year = 56,583 years one way travel.
Therefore whilst humans could extend their survival if they could colonize the nearest Earth like planet they do not have the technological ability to travel to the nearest extra-solar planet and colonize it.
Solution 4: Colonize Space.
It is conceivable for a human habitat to be constructed in space, based around the current International Space Station model.
It could not however remain near the Earth. It would have to travel to the next Earth like planet to replenish its crews survival ability.
Given the length of space travel required even to reach the nearby stars and their exo-planets a multi-generational capability is required.
The space craft and crew would have to generate their own light, heat, food, atmosphere, water, health control, education, parenting and hierarchy to survive.
It would have to be a small guided Earth.
Solution 5: Colonize space with Human DNA
If human evolution could be replicated from its most basic chemical nature and then stored in an environment container attached to a space transport system it is conceivable that could be directed to a nearby exoplanet.
This would be an evolutionary capsule for human DNA development. Once landed it could initially be protected from the new environment and then it could gradually filter in the exo-planet environment to allow adaptation of the human genome sequences to suit the new planet.
Solution 6: Colonize Space with Human Knowledge.
Humans are mass turned into energy and back into mass again. They are energy in an organic container processing, analysing and adapting the environment to survive and reproduce.
They produce knowledge artefacts that contain all of their nature.
These artefacts could be transmitted as digital data over a radio astronomy network to a nearby exoplanet to colonize it by proxy through dissemination of human knowledge to an alien culture.
Conclusions
There is increasing energy, resource and environment depletion coupled with human population increase that will reduce the human ability to exist on the Earth up to 2100 AD.
If humans remain on Earth their survival level will inevitably deplete.
Humans will be more at risk if they decide to colonize the solar system due to the same energy, resource and environment depletion issues.
Whilst humans could extend their survival if they could colonize the nearest Earth like planet they do not yet have the technological ability to travel to the nearest discovered extra-solar planet and colonize it.
Colonizing space in multi-generational ships is possible but infinitely expensive in terms of energy, resources and environment.
Colonizing space with a multi-generational ship, human DNA and human knowledge is possible and practical.
Humans have therefore 85 years left to define how long they will survive on Earth or expand out to make a second home elsewhere in the Universe.
Approximately 2 lifespans of 50 years each to make a choice.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
10/02/2015
14/10/2020
1626 words over 4 pages