Health
‘Hominem ad deos nulla re propius accedunt quam salutem hominibus dando,’
‘In nothing do men more nearly approach the gods, than in giving health to men.’
Source: Marcus Tullius Cicero Henry Thomas Riley, Dictionary of Latin Quotations, Proverbs,
Maxims, and Mottos (1866), 152.
In our society we would paraphrase Cicero.
‘In nothing do humans more nearly approach their best nature, than in giving health to humans.’
But the intended meaning and emphasis on the character of humans is the same.
Health is the one of the key needs of humans.
What then is the current and future state of the health system in the UK. ?
Origin
The NHS was created in 1946.
It was intended to support a country recovering from the effects of fighting a global war. A society that would take generations to recover. A society that could only be rebuild through each individual contributing to the welfare of the whole nation and so assuring greater incentive and prosperity for all.
It is still regarded as one of the symbols of our nations character.
The current nature of the NHS can be described in more detail using the data from the NHS Confederation.
Current Size of the NHS
In 2012 our National Health Service was the fifth largest employer in the world.
Source: BBC 20 March 2012 Last updated at 00:19 Which is the world's biggest employer? By Ruth Alexander
Current Economics.
In 2013 - 2014 the Capital Budget for the NHS was £ 109,721,000,000
In 2014 - 2015 the Expenditure for the NHS was £ 113,035,000,000
This indicates that the NHS is going bankrupt.
Current Per Capita Expenditure.
In 2012 - 2013 the Expenditure per capita of the NHS was stated as £ 1,912
In 2012 - 2014 allowing for the population of Britain of approx. 64,100,000 the expenditure can be calculated as £ 109,721,000,000 / 64,100,000 which is £1,711 or £ 113,035,000,000 / 64.100, 000 which is £1,763.
Therefore actual per capita expenditure quoted for the NHS are questionable.
Over 1 year the per capita expenditure works out at approx. £1,763 / 365 which is £4 per day per capita.
Allowing for the basic form of health care, painkillers, at approx. 50p per packet this equates to 8 packets of painkillers as a potential health care ability per capita by the NHS.
The ability of the NHS to look after the population is the same as can be obtained from a supermarket.
If the amount in contributions from National Insurance is also compared to the per capita expenditure then.
The base contribution of £2.70 to get between £1711 to £1912 treatment back is exceptionally generous.
Or over a year.
The base contribution of £2.70 per day could buy an individual 5 packets of painkiller tablets from a supermarket and this would achieve the same level of treatment as provided by the NHS.
Current Surplus
The NHS apparently operated a monetary surplus in 2012 – 2013 of £2,100,000,000.
But the surplus cannot exist within the figures previously noted for Capital Budget and Expenditure since this leaves a net loss of £3,314,000,000.
Even if the surplus existed this would reduce the expenditure per capita previously indicated.
Therefore the surplus amount of money indicated in the NHS is questionable.
Current Organization
The organization of the NHS includes.
211 managerial and service organizations.
156 secondary managerial and service organizations.
56 mental health managerial and service organizations.
34 community providers managerial and service organizations.
10 ambulance trusts managerial and service organizations.
Approx.8,000 GP practices.
Current Total Employees
In 2012 the NHS had approx. 1,700,000 employees
source: telegraph 11:28AM GMT 20 Mar 2012 and assoc. sources
In 2013 the NHS has approx. 1,364,000 employees.
source nhsconfed.org
Therefore the NHS has been shrinking in employment size between 2012 - 2013 by 336,000 people.
The total staff numbers in the NHS allow a ratio in 2013 - 2014 of approx. 1 staff in the NHS to look after 46 of the total population.
Current Employee Types
There are 147,087 doctors. Allowing for 1 doctor for approx. 435 of the total population.
There are 371,777 qualified nursing staff. Allowing for 1 nursing staff for approx.172 of the population.
There are 154,109 qualified scientific, therapeutic and technical staff. Allowing for 1 staff for approx. 415 of the population.
There are 36,360 managers. Allowing for 1 manager to look after 1762 of the population. Allowing for 1 manager to look after 37 total staff.
Therefore at each level of the NHS the workload is interpreted differently by each type of worker.
Current Patient Rate
In terms of time allowance per patient.
In 2013 – 2015 the NHS apparently dealt with 1,000,000 patients every 36 hours, 466 per hour, 7 patients per minute, 1 patient every 8 seconds.
This rate indicates a rate of patient treatment that is apparently in operation 24 hours a day at such a speed that the Health Service is driving staff and patients beyond human endurance levels.
Since the Health service exists and operates, despite reported issues, then this data must also indicate an overlapping data distortion.
If this rate is further extrapolated out for a year the total number of patients would be.
8760 hours per year / 36 hours = 243 x 1,000,000, 243,000,000, approx. 4 times the total UK population.
The only interpretation of the data is that the whole population of the UK can potentially making approx. 4 visits to the NHS per year.
Current Detailed Patient Rate
Breaking the numbers down for the NHS types of service and identifying a patient rate.
In 2012 – 2013 there were approx.10,595,000 operations.
In 2013 – 2014 there were approx. 21,779,000 accident and emergency admissions.
In 2012 – 2013 there were approx. 75,456,000 hospital emissions.
In 2012 – 2013 there were approx.1,590,000 specialist mental health services.
In 2012 – 2013 there were approx. 50,408 people detained under the mental health act.
In 2011 – 2014 the number of people on the NHS waiting list was 3,006,000.
This allows for a total number of services of approx. 112,476,408.
This allows for approx. 2 times the total UK population number of services.
This is interpreted as the whole population of the UK potentially making approx. 2 visits to the NHS per year.
Therefore unless the detailed data numbers are examined at individual NHS locations the patient rate time is distorted by overlapping patient rates and is meaningless.
The only meaningful rate from both the NHS data and the calculations is a potential average visit to the NHS of 2 to 4 times a year for each person in the UK population.
Current Waiting and Response Times.
In 2011 – 2012 there is apparently an ambulance call response time of 8 minutes.
This indicates a driving range for ambulances of 10 miles if a speed of 50mph is allowed.
Allowing for a rate per hour quoted by the NHS of 466 patients per hour, 7 per minute, 1 per 8 seconds.
The ambulance service is apparently in operation 24 hours a day at such a speed that the patients cannot get from their homes into the ambulances or out of the ambulances into the hospitals.
However unless the numbers are examined at individual NHS locations the average ambulance call response time is distorted by the overlapping ambulance response rate and so is meaningless.
In 2014 the NHS waiting time in accident and emergency was regarded as 4 hours per patient.
In 2013 – 2014 the accident and emergency numbers indicated approx. 21,779,000 patients in one year. This indicates that only approx. one third of the total UK population per year use accident and emergency.
In terms of hours 4 hours x 21,779,000 = 87,116,000 hours. Approx.10,000 times the number of hours in a year.
Therefore unless the numbers are examined at individual NHS locations the average rate of waiting time and accident and emergency patients in one year is distorted by the overlapping rate in each NHS area and so is meaningless.
In 2012 the average stay per patient in the NHS was 7 days
Allowing for the 2012 – 2013 number of 75,456,000 hospital emissions this indicates
75,456,000 x 7 = 528,192,000 stay days. 1,447,101 times the number of days in a year.
Therefore unless the numbers are examined at individual NHS locations the average rate of stay in days is distorted by the overlapping rate in each NHS area and so is meaningless.
Future NHS
The future projection of the NHS is a service having to cope with constantly increasing population, reduced energy, resources and finances whilst having to reduce in size to maintain its original intention.
Conclusions
The NHS is going bankrupt.
At each level of the NHS the workload identified by each type of employee will be interpreted differently.
Allowing for the basic form of health care, painkillers, at approx. 50p per packet the expenditure per capita of the NHS equates to 8 packets of painkillers as a potential health care ability per capita per day.
The ability of the NHS to look after the population is the same as can be obtained from a supermarket.
The surplus amount of money in the NHS is questionable.
The NHS has been shrinking in employment size between 2012 - 2013 by 336,000 people.
It is trying to become more efficient and remain operational.
The numbers indicating the total NHS organizations, staffing, operations, accident and emergency, hospital emissions, hospital departments, specialist mental health services, people detained under the mental health act, people on waiting list, response times and length of stay are meaningless unless they are considered at a local level with each NHS location and population.
The only meaningful data indicates the potential level of healthcare that allows an average visit to the NHS of 2 to 4 times a year for each person in the UK population.
The data indicates an NHS having a positive benefit on the public health but having to constantly expand to cope with increasing population numbers and also to reduce to remain viable.
In view of the likely changes to the world up to 2050 the NHS will reach a point where welfare provision for the whole population is impracticable and the NHS will have to be broken up into localised Health Care Centres possibly even linked to retail chains to allow the general public to treat themselves.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
31/01/2015
14/10/2020
1736 words over 4 pages