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The Greenland Ice Sheet Effect on the UK
Purpose
This essay examines the effects of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the UK and its Architecture.
Definitions
Architecture
In the context of this essay the Architecture refers to the total current nature of the UK.
Surface Mass Balance
The Surface Mass Balance of an Ice sheet; such as the Greenland Ice Sheet; is calculated as.
2/3 the amount of snow and ice that accumulates and melts each year.
1/3 the ice that is lost through calving icebergs and ocean melting.’
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-2016
Source: www.kylesconverter.com/mass/gigatonnes-to-tonnes
Source: http://sciencenordic.com/how-greenland-ice-sheet-fared-2017
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-greenland-ice-sheet-2017
Source: Polar Portal
Scope
The effect of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the UK is tested by examining the confirmation of global warming and its causes, the nature of the Greenland Ice Sheet, influences over sea level rise, historical changes in sea level in terms of years ago, total sea level change, rate of sea level change per year and causes of historic sea level change, future projections of sea level rise caused by the Greenland Ice Sheet for the years 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100, the effect of the complete loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the UK and the additional components of ice sheet melt rate.
The results for the UK of the slow melting and calving of Greenland Ice Sheet are then established.
The results for the UK of the total melting and total calving of Greenland Ice Sheet are then established.
Conclusions are then drawn.
Confirmation of Global Warming and its Causes
‘The amplitude and spatial pattern of warming that has evolved over the 20th century matches the predictions of climate models that incorporate natural and human factors combined, but not natural factors alone (IPCC, 2014).’
Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.
‘The global climate is changing, leading to rising temperatures and sea levels, retreating ice, and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions.’
Source: UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017. P15.
The Nature of the Greenland Ice Sheet
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the second largest ice body on Earth and so has the potential; through changes in its Surface Mass Balance; to increase global ocean sea levels.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenland_ice_sheet
The Greenland Ice Sheet has the further potential to increase global temperatures and so precipitation levels indirectly by the following sequence.
As ice melts there is less ice sheet coverage on the Earth.
Less solar radiation is reflected from the surface of the Earth.
More radiant energy is absorbed by the surface of the Earth.
The surface of the Earth increases in temperature.
More ice sheet melt occurs.
Global sea levels increase.
More sea volume is available to absorb more solar radiation.
Global temperature increase.
Less ice sheet coverage is formed on the Earth.
This sequence continues until all of the ice is melted.
Source: 'Climate Change - Britain Under Threat'
Influences over Sea Level Rise
The major influences over sea level rise are temperature and the mass of water locked up on land and sea as fresh water in rivers, lakes, glaciers and polar ice caps.
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Past_changes_in_sea_level
Historical Changes in Sea Level.
Yrs ago ttl change rate /yr cause
200,000 125m 1/10th mm to +10mm melting ice sheets
19,000 to 8,000 10m 20mm
14,600 to 11,100 13.5m 21mm melting ice sheets
14,300 to 11,000 6mm to 9.9mm
11,400 to 11,000 7.5m 21mm melting ice sheets
8,200 to 7,600 6.5m 22mm melting ice sheets
3,000 to 1900 0.07mm
1880 to 2009 0.210m 0.61mm
1800 to 1900 0.6m 0.17mm
1900 to 2000 0.19m 0.53mm
1900 to 2000 0.8mm to 3.3mm melting ice sheets
1.8mm av
1998 to 2017 11mm melting ice sheets
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise#Past_changes_in_sea_level
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/science-environment-20551086/rate-of-polar-ice-sheets-melting-has-accelerated 2012
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-greenland-ice-sheet-2017
Source: Credit: Polar Portal
Source: https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-greenland-ice-sheet-2017
Future Projections of Sea Level Rise Caused by the Greenland Ice Sheet
From 2002 to 2017 the Greenland Ice Sheet accounted for a sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
Projecting forward in time at the rate of 1.5mm per year of melting; including an SMB made up of snowfall and calving yearly data; the Greenland Ice Sheet will have added the following to the global sea levels.
Yrs ahead ttl change rate /yr cause
By 2020 0.03m 1.5mm melting of Greenland ice sheet
By 2050 0.05m 1.5mm melting of Greenland ice sheet
By 2080 0.09m 1.5mm melting of Greenland ice sheet
By 2100 0.12m 1.5mm melting of Greenland ice sheet
The Effect of the Complete Loss of Greenland Ice Sheet
‘Were all the ice on Greenland to melt, it would raise global sea-levels by 7.42m (24.34ft).
This is one of the refined statistics to come out of the new compilation of data. It is a simple calculation: if you know the elevation of the top of the ice sheet and you subtract from that the height of the bedrock - you get a volume:
2.9 million cubic km.
The 7.42m figure is seven cm more than previous estimates.’
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-42260580 2017
Additional Components of Ice Sheet Melt Rate.
Impurities
‘Melting point (m.p.) analysis can also provide information about the purity of a sample. A substance (solid) containing soluble impurities usually melts at a lower temperature than the pure compound. It can also melt over a wide range of temperatures and is called the “melting point depression.” In general, the smaller the range of melting temperatures, the higher the purity of the sample.’
Source: http://kirsoplabs.co.uk/lab-aids/impure-solids-melt-lower-temperatures/
Any impurities in the atmosphere trapped in rain or snow that falls onto the ice sheet vary the melting rate of the layers of the ice sheet.
Specific Heat Capacity
‘The specific heat capacity of a substance is the amount of energy needed to change the temperature of 1 kg of the substance by 1°C. Different substances have different specific heat capacities.’
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/aqa/heatingandcooling/buildingsrev3.shtml
The specific heat capacity of water ice and water vapor are all different.
Water in snow, dense ice glaciers or sea water will have a different specific heat capacity.
The freezing and melting rates of water vary in different states and different environmental conditions of impurities, density and depth.
Results for the UK of the Slow Melting and Calving of Greenland Ice Sheet.
The historic and current sea levels in the UK can be established from measurement records.
The future sea level rise in the UK can be established by extrapolation from precipitation levels allowing for a sea level increase of 3mm per year including the melting and calving of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
This precipitation would add snow layers to the SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet and perpetuate its lifespan and so its effect on the sea levels and loss of land in the UK.
Source:https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/584281/uk-climate-change-risk-assess-2017.pdf
The projections for the effect of the Greenland Ice Sheet melt and calving on the UK sea levels and so land levels can be calculated for the years 2020, 2050, 2080 and 2100.
In 2018
The sea level rise in the UK has a range of 4,886mm to 7,125mm including the Greenland Ice Sheet global sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
This sea level range allows 3,800km2 of land to exist in the UK approx. 2,750mm below sea level. ’The Fens’.
This is a sea level range to land ratio of 4,886mm to 7,125mm to 3,800km2.
1.2 to 1 and 1.9 to 1 ratios.
By 2020
The sea level rise in the UK has a range of 4913mm to 7167mm including the Greenland Ice Sheet global sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
The sea level has increased by 69% from 2018 measured levels.
There is therefore an increase of 69%; 2622km2; in the natural land lost to flooding from the 2018 level.
This gives a total of land lost to sea level rise of 3800km2 + 2622km2 = 6422km2
Source: See Data at end of essay with associated refs.
By 2050
The sea level rise in the UK has a range of 5003mm to 7257mm including the Greenland Ice Sheet global sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
The sea level has increased by 67% from 2018 measured levels.
There is therefore an increase of 67%; 2,584km2; in the natural land lost to flooding from the 2018, 2020
levels.
This gives a total of land lost to sea level rise of 6,422km2 + 2,584km2 = 9,006km2
Source: See Data at end of essay with associated refs.
By 2080
The sea level rise in the UK has a range of 5093mm to 7347mm including the Greenland Ice Sheet global sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
The sea level has increased by a further 67% from 2018 measured levels.
There is therefore an increase of 67%; 2,546km2; in the natural land lost to flooding from the 2018, 2020, 2050 levels.
This gives a total of land lost to sea level rise of 9,006km2 + 2,546km2 = 11,552km2
Source: See Data at end of essay with associated refs.
By 2100 and Beyond
The sea level rise in the UK has a range of 5153mm to 7407mm including the Greenland Ice Sheet global sea level rise of 0.01m, 1.5mm per year.
The sea level has increased by a further 66% from 2018 measured levels
There is therefore an increase of 66%; 2,508km2; in the natural land lost to flooding from the 2018 level.
This gives a total of land lost to sea level rise of 11,552km2 + 2,508km2 = 14,060km2
Source: See Data at end of essay with associated refs.
Results for the UK of the Total Melting and Total Calving of Greenland Ice Sheet.
The projections for the effect of the Greenland Ice Sheet melt and calving on the UK sea levels and so land loss can be calculated for the year 2100.
By 2100
If the total sea level increase from 2018 to 2100 is 267mm to 627mm.
Source: See Data at end of essay with associated refs.
This can be given as a ratio of sea level rise to natural land lost.
0.627m sea level rise = 14,060km2 of natural land lost.
This ratio can be extrapolated to identify the land lost to sea level rise of 1m above 2018 levels.
1m of sea level rise = 22,424km2 of natural land lost.
If the total Greenland Ice Sheet melted then it would equate to a 7.42m sea level rise globally.
This would equate to 7.42 x 22,424km2
166,386km2 of natural land lost globally.
The loss of land only to the UK would be any land below the sea level after the Greenland Ice Sheet had totally melted and totally calved into the ocean.
This is mainly around the areas of the Fens where the land is already 2,750mm below sea level and there is a high tidal range.
The amount of natural land elevation lost would be the difference between the sea level after the Greenland Ice Sheet had totally melted and totally calved into the ocean and the 2018 sea levels.
2018 sea levels 4,886mm to 7125mm.
2100 sea levels with total loss of Greenland Ice Sheet. 7,420mm.
7,420mm + 4,866mm = 12,534mm.
7,420mm + 7,125mm = 14,545 mm.
This gives a new sea levels of between 12,534mm.and14,545mm in the UK.
If the Fens are; in 2018; at a level of 2,750mm below sea level and have an area of 3,800km2.
The likely effect of a sea level rise of 7,420mm can be calculated as.
12,534mm – 2,750mm = 9,784mm
14,545mm – 2,750mm = 11,795mm
The ‘Fens’ would be 9,784mm to 11,795mm under the new sea levels.
This would obliterate the original Fen area of 3,800km2 and add an additional loss of natural land to sea level rise based on the sea level to land ratio of 1.9 to 1 of 11,795 / 1.9 = 6,207km2
The total area of sea flooding with the total loss of the Green land Ice Sheet can be calculated as 3,800km2 + 6,207km2 = 10,007km2. Three times the current area of the Fens.
Conclusion
The data indicates that increased historic and current temperatures have always increased the melting of the ice sheets releasing larger amounts of water into the oceans and so increasing sea level rise.
The Greenland Ice Sheet has therefore the historic and current potential to change the sea levels globally.
The Greenland Ice Sheet as a continuous, reforming, component of a global weather sequence has the ability to flood 14,060km2 of the UK over a period of 82 years.
If the Greenland Ice Sheet is lost totally it has the current potential to flood 10,007km2 of the UK over a short time period.
The data indicates that the Greenland Ice Sheet; because it is being constantly increased in SMB by the global climate; has the potential cause more UK land loss in the longer term than if it was totally lost as a smaller volume of ice sheet over a short period of time.
Loss of land coupled with an increasing population and depleting environment, energy and resources means that the Greenland Ice Sheet has the current and future ability to fundamentally influence and change the nature of the Architecture of the UK.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
27/01/2018
14/10/2020
2203 words over 5 pages
Data
UK Climate
Sea Level Rise
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