Britain Future Climate and Architecture
Britain is a group of islands split by rivers and surrounded by seas.
Its current climate is temperate. This is a model of its climate.
Current climate model.
Minimum UK temp -22.3 °C (-8.1 °F)
Maximum UK temp 38.5 °C (101.3 °F)
England temp range 1.1 deg c (34 deg F) to 20.6 deg C (69.1 deg F) per month
England sunshine hours 43.9 to 192.8 per month
England rainfall 54.1 mm to 90.4 mm per month
Northern Ireland temp range 1.2 deg C (34.2 deg F) to 18.4 deg C (65.1 deg F) per month
Northern Ireland sunshine hours 31.9 to 175.9 per month
Northern Ireland rainfall 68.1 mm to 119.1 mm per month
Scotland temp range -0.2 deg C (31.6 deg F) to 16.9 deg C (62.4 deg F) per month
Scotland sunshine hours 24.7 to 173.2 per month per month
Scotland rainfall 79 mm to 170.5 mm per month
Wales temp range 1.1 deg C (34 deg F) to 19.1 (66.4 deg F) per month
Wales sunshine hours 35.4 to 186.8 per month
Wales rainfall 78.3 mm to 173.1 mm per month
North sea temperature 6 °C to 17 °C (2008)
Irish sea temp 7 °C to 16 °C (2008)
The climate in Britain is changing due to the effects of greenhouse gas emissions causing global temperature increases. This will create the following climate model.
Future climate model
Minimum UK temp -19.3 °C (-2.1 °F)
Maximum UK temp 41.5 °C (107.3 °F)
England temp range 4.1 deg c (40 deg F) to 23.6 deg C (75.1 deg F) per month
England sunshine hours 43.9 to 192.8 per month
England rainfall 34.08 mm to 124.12 mm per month
Northern Ireland temp range 4.2 deg C (40.2 deg F) to 21.4 deg C (71.1 deg F) per month
Northern Ireland sunshine hours 31.9 to 175.9 per month
Northern Ireland rainfall 42.90 mm to 163.52 mm per month
Scotland temp range 2.8 deg C (37.6 deg F) to 19.9 deg C (68.4 deg F) per month
Scotland sunshine hours 24.7 to 173.2 per month per month
Scotland rainfall 49.77 mm to 234.10 mm per month
Wales temp range 4.1 deg C (40 deg F) to 22.1 (72.4 deg F) per month
Wales sunshine hours 35.4 to 186.8 per month
Wales rainfall 49.33 mm to 237.67 mm per month
North sea temperature 8 °C to 20 °C (2050)
North sea temperature 11 °C to 23 °C (2085)
Irish sea temp 10 °C to 19 °C (2050)
Irish sea temp 13 °C to 22 °C (2085)
Sea levels will increase by 120mm to 760mm by 2100
Source: Met Office (1971–2000 averages)
Source: UKCP Map The Met Office 2009
Source: Environment Agency 2013
Source: About the North Sea: Key facts".
Safety at Sea project: Norwegian Coastal Administration. 2008.
Source: http://www.met.ie/marine/marine_climatology.asp
Future climate model indications
A comparison of the climate models indicates changes from the current climate.
The year round climate will be warmer.
The summer temperatures will increase.
The winter temperatures will increase.
The rainfall will be reduced in summer and increased severely in winter.
The variance between the seasons temperatures will increase.
The sea temperatures around Britain will increase.
The sea levels around Britain will increase.
Effects of climate model indications on Architecture.
Population
Population levels will increase, that is the current trend.
Increased levels of population will need more water, food, shelter, health care, communications, transport and an incentive to produce products for each other.
This will become increasingly difficult as energy, natural resources and environment deplete.
Water
Water allows for seven days of human survival.
Currently Britain imports more water than it retains, filters and distributes.
This needs to alter; to preserve the life of the population and secondly to preserve the food producing areas of the south of Britain; if the climate model predictions of summer drought and additional winter water resources occur.
Flood control measures need to be linked to water collection reservoirs and then filtration reservoirs in each locality to allow for climate change.
Dwellings need to retain, filter and distribute rainwater.
Dwellings need to collect, filter and re-use grey water from washing and cleaning.
Food - Land
Food allows for at least four weeks of human survival after a meal.
Current eating habits allow for three meals a day plus snacks.
Britain is currently only 60% self-sufficient in agricultural produce.
Source: Food and Drink Federation 2012.
To produce the variety and amount of food products on sale Britain needs to import food. This will not be possible as climate change, energy depletion and resource depletion, occurs.
In Britain in 2013 arable, irrigated land accounts for only 22% of its land area. Less than 1% of this has permanent crops on it. To allow for the increase in population the arable land, permanent crops, irrigated land, renewable water potential and freshwater potential will have to be increased by at least another 22%. This will not be nationally possible but it is locally possible if the growing areas and water collection are located at each dwelling in the country by creating new forms of habitat. This allows for adaptation to the increased variation in the climate where it is needed, where each individual lives and works.
The effect the future climate model will have on our current crops will be initially depletion then food shortages. Those farms that survive the drought and severe winter conditions will have to add in new tropical crops to there yearly output to maintain supply. Others will adapt into aboriculture, hydroponic, air, soil, seed libraries, organic pesticide controls, wine, fruit, maize, soya, and energy crops. Crop locations will also move to the urban areas and around the dwellings of the population reducing picking, delivery and storage time and placing the control for the future crop into the hands of the individual.
The need to grow food will become an ever increasing incentive of life.
Food - Sea
The effect of the future climate model will have on our seafood resources will be initially an increase in species available to the fishing industry due to the warmer waters around the coast then a depletion of resources as these new species are farmed to make up a surplus in product supply.
Aquaculture farming will also be created inland near the urban areas as a new resource.
The current fishing fleet vessels will be reduced to smaller types of craft to save energy and resources.
The time the fish is stored before use will also reduce; due to the removal of refrigeration equipment as energy supplies decrease; allowing for a fresher produce to the customer but also an ongoing need to manage the stocks in a seasonal sustainable manner to avoid depletion.
Shelter – Location
Current urban areas will form the basis for all future habitation. They will however adapt by shrinking in area suitable for pedestrian travelling distances, approx. 1 hour walking distance, say 1 mile, 1.6km maximum distances. 3sq miles in area or 8 sq km in area.
Outlying suburban areas without a resource will become unoccupied and then derelict awaiting demolition or strip out.
In 2012 Britain had approx. 6500 settlements, 26,000,000 dwellings and 63,000,000 inhabitants. This allowed for approx. 2 to 3 people per dwelling and gave an average settlement size of approx. 9600 people.
By 2050 the population is projected to rise to 77,000,000. This needs to allow for approx. 4 to 5 people per dwelling and a new settlement size of approx. 12,000 people.
It is likely that the settlement total number will remain around 6500 settlements since they are already located around historic resource locations and so form a cultural map identifiable to the population.
Shelter – Existing buildings
The existing building stock of Britain will remain relatively unchanged except for the addition of excretion forms such as awnings, shelters, umbrella covers and window screening. They will be retained until they become uneconomic to update or more valuable as a material resource for recycling.
Shelter – New Build
The new build designs In Britain will have to reflect the changes in climate and also the depletion of energy and natural resources.
The new build dwellings will be delivered as self build properties on land purchased by a cooperative group of local residents. This allows for the timescales, economic funding, resources and seasonal workforce to be brought together as and when they are needed to maximum effectiveness.
The new build areas will concentrate around existing sustainable resources to increase chances of becoming established.
New build Architecture should have a compact volume, be single storey, have minimal opening in walls, have external and internal green walls, flat garden roof areas, rainwater recycling to irrigate the green walls and garden, grey water recycling, potable water storage, minimal interiors, passive heating, cooling and ventilation, wood burning stoves to cook on and heat water, no mains electrical system, portable solar charged lighting, communications and media systems, minimal furniture, minimal compact utility areas, manual washing machine systems, solar heated shower systems, battery powered domestic plastic recycling systems, 3d printing systems and minimal water supply and a minimal sewerage system.
Food storage will need to be part of the fabric of the building and be manually preserved, picked and stored since refrigeration will consume so much energy that it will become uneconomic to produce and install.
Shelter - Occupants
The climate also has effects on the occupants which then changes the form of the Architecture.
The clothes worn by the public will change, lighter in summer, perhaps longer and of simpler, localized materials. The number of hats worn by people will increase. The use of parasols and umbrellas will increase. The need for less clothing space in summer and more in the winter, including a form of indoor drying area will be needed.
Shelter – Population Movement
The effect of flooding in the winter will cause a migration pattern around the areas of the Eastern coast, ‘The wash’, the Thames area, The Severn Estuary, the Mersey Estuary and Deeside.
This will involve the displacement of five million people by the year 2050 which will need to be absorbed into the urban core areas of cities.
The present effects of the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, on the British climate is to warm it and to increase its precipitation levels. If the slow down of the Gulf Stream, North Atlantic Current, due to the additional melt water from the Northern Polar cap keeps increasing then the effect on Britain will be a lowering of the winter temperatures by a further 10 deg C (18 deg F), below habitability levels along the western coast of Britain during winter months.
This will create a seasonal migration to the city core areas.
All of the population in Britain by 2050 will live and migrate to urban areas.
Health Care
The likely hood of Hyperthermia; temperature rise related illness; to life-threatening levels during the summer will increase and so variations in the daily life pattern of occupants will change to allow them to be sheltered during the day in the warmer summer months and the colder winter months as is common in parts of Portugal and Spain currently.
The treatment of other diseases from the effects of contaminated water supply will also need to be allowed for as well as quarantine areas for the sick to reduce transmittance of disease by migration.
Triage health units will need to be located on the outskirts of each urban area and treated as border points.
Communications
Communications requires energy to operate and consequently as energy depletes this will not be available in the future at the current levels. Localized radio communication networks, such as those common in Australia, will have to be formed through the domestic wi-fi network to maintain a portable communications and media system as energy depletes. International internet will be replaced by localized free networks of open, unlicensed, communications that the authorities can monitor and add information to as needed to guide the population. A form of permanent civil defense militia with a communications wi-fi will need to be established for emergency purposes for the protection of local energy and natural resources.
Transport
Vehicle numbers will reduce as energy and natural resource depletion increases and the new urban core areas form.
Transport beyond these local areas will become a special event, probably seasonal, to ensure maximized use of available energy and resources.
Air transport will decrease due to its intense energy consumption.
River travel in smaller craft will increase since this can access large area of the islands of Britain.
Sea travel will increase but with a change over to coastal sailing ships.
Rail transport will decrease after temporarily reverting back to steam power.
Road transport will decrease due to its intense energy consumption.
Incentives
Incentives form the economy and social structure of Britain currently.
Britain preserves the last stages of its empire through a lattice of consumerism and mass production and mass media linked by a money supply.
The advent of energy, natural resource and environmental depletion will disrupt this framework.
Incentives will have to be directed with a new set of controls to prevent the public from moving from a group incentive to one of individual preservation. Work will localize at the dwelling. Recycling, food and water gathering will become part of the incentive system.
Britain will need to alter its current political borders. The simplest solution being the establishment not of a country known as Britain but a series of regional areas based around the county boundaries. These have historic meaning for each area of the country and so create a local heritage, need, value, quality, beauty, society, culture incentive.
The Sovereign of Britain will change at least twice in the next fifty years and so the stability of the country can be maintained by a localization of authority under a Sovereign state. This policy also allows for the potential independence of Scotland in 2014.
In the future the issues relating to the depletion of energy, resources, and environment
will have to be acknowledged and addressed and they will all alter our needs, values, quality levels, appreciation of beauty, our society and our culture.
Our Architecture.
Ian K Whittaker
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
14/10/2020
2381 words over 7 pages