HUMAN MANUFACTURING RELATED TO GLOBAL WARMING
The debate about Global warming ended with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Treaty, the Earth Summit, in Rio de Janerio in 1992. Since this agreement the debate has moved into defining the methods of achieving the reduction to safe levels of Greenhouse Gas emissions.
Out of the debate has also come the understanding that the Earth has very few fossil fuel sources remaining.
The problems are
How to stabilize the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human created interference with the climate system
Source: "Status of Ratification of the Convention". United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.1992
How to save the environment from human created interference.
How to reduce the use of fossil fuels such as coal, natural gas and oil.
How to create new energy sources with minimal use of the remaining fossil fuels before they run out.
How to create new technology with minimal use of the remaining Earth elements before they run out or become un-extractable due to the loss of energy sources.
How to stabilize society through these changes to energy, resources and environment.
This is the state of the natural systems of emissions and absorption relating to one of the Greenhouse gases Carbon Dioxide CO2. 2000-2013
Long term energy variations
Sun activity, Earth orbit, Earth axial tilt, Lunar influences.
Natural Systems of Emission and Absorption
Natural Carbon Sinks or Pools of carbon on earth
Atmosphere = 720 Gt Carbon
Oceans (total) = 38,400 Gt Carbon
Total inorganic = 37,400 Gt Carbon
Total organic = 1,000 Gt Carbon
Surface layer = 670 Gt Carbon
Deep layer = 36,730 Gt Carbon
Lithosphere (Outer crust 'land')
Sedimentary carbonates = > 60,000,000 Gt Carbon
Kerogens = 15,000,000 Gt Carbon
Terrestrial biosphere (total) = 2,000 Gt Carbon
Living biomass = 600 - 1,000 Gt Carbon
Dead biomass = 1,200 Gt Carbon
Aquatic biosphere = 1 - 2 Gt Carbon
Fossil fuels (total) = 4,130 Gt Carbon
Coal = 3,510 Gt Carbon
Oil = 230 Gt Carbon
Gas = 140 Gt Carbon
Other (peat) = 250 Gt Carbon
Total Natural Carbon Sink = 75,127,382 Gt Carbon
Source: "The Global Carbon Cycle: A Test of Our Knowledge of Earth as a System".
Science 290 (5490): 291–296. doi:10.1126/science.290.5490.291. PMID 11030643. edit ^ Crowley, T. J. (2000). "Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years". Science 289 (5477): 270–277
Natural Systems of Emission and Absorption
The relation of Carbon to Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere
Atomic Mass Mole of Carbon = 12.011 g
Atomic Mass Mole of CO2 = 44.009 g
1 Gt of carbon = 3.67 Gt of CO2
1ppmv of CO2 = 2.13 Gt Carbon
1ppmv = 7.81 Gt of CO2
400ppmv in atmosphere in 2013 (Mauna Loa, Hawaii) = 3124 Gt of CO2
The natural atmosphere sink level of Carbon = 720 Gt Carbon
The natural atmosphere sink level of CO2 = 2642 Gt of CO2
The natural atmosphere sink level of CO2 in ppmv
720 Gt Carbon x 3.67 = 2624 Gt CO2 / 7.81 = 338 ppmv of CO2
Natural Systems of Emission and Absorption
Concentration of Carbon Dioxide in Atmosphere in parts per million (ppmv)
Ice core samples CO2 concentration ppmv = 180 and 300 ppmv CO2
for the last half-a-million years
Pre-industrial human emission of CO2 1850 = 280 ppmv CO2
CO2 concentration measurements 2009 = 387 ppmv CO2
CO2 concentration measurements 2013 = 380 to 400 ppmv CO2
Source: "Carbon dioxide passes symbolic mark". BBC. 10 May 2013.
Source: "Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa". NOAA. 2013.
Non-Natural Systems of Emission and Absorption
Human Emissions of Carbon Dioxide
Human emissions of CO2 at pre-industrial 1850 levels = 12.35 Gt of CO2
Human emissions of CO2 1990s = 23.5 Gt of CO2
Human emissions of CO2 2003 = 26.8 Gt of CO2
Source: USA DOE CDIAC
Human emissions of CO2 2007 = 26.4 Gt of CO2
Source: IPC 2007
Human emissions of CO2 2010 - 2013 = 31.68 Gt of CO2
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013 (2010 est)
Human emission of CO2 entering oceans approx 40% = 10.56 Gt of CO2
Human emission of CO2 entering atmosphere
approx 60% = 89.44 Gt of CO2
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report in February 2007
Humans have added CO2 to the atmosphere
400-338ppmv = 62ppmv CO2
Humans have added CO2 in Gt to the atmosphere
3124-2642Gt = 484 Gt of CO2
The atmosphere can contain naturally = 720 Gt of Carbon
Humans have added to the natural atmosphere
sink of CO2 62ppmv x 2.13 = 132 Gt of Carbon
The current atmosphere sink level of CO2 = 720 + 132 = 852 Gt of Carbon
Conclusion
The natural solar activity, orbit, axial tilt, lunar influence, are the oldest drivers of greenhouse gas emission and absorption.
These were followed by the oceans and the increasing complexity of the atmosphere due to water becoming present on Earth.
Life then developed and altered the climate system of the Earth.
Humans, through the development of fire and then technology have increased the speed of the variation in climate causing the earth to increase in temperature over decades instead of thousands of years.
The earth systems of emission and absorption are not balanced or static. They are in flux and constantly balancing themselves through the interaction of the sun and volcanic activity.
The suns activity cannot be varied external to the Earth.
The volcanic action can be considered to be a natural, non-passive, system that causes the planets atmosphere and biosphere to interact. However the amount of Giga tonnes of Carbon Dioxide released by volcanic action in relation to the total is negligible and so is absorbed.
Human emissions are above those of volcanic origin.
The natural temperature systems of the Earth move in response cycles of cooling and temperature rise depending on the variations of the earths orbit and axial tilt. This in turn causes response changes to the natural sinks of carbon
This takes thousands of years.
Human emissions have reduced this timescale of responses to decades and the results are showing up in climate and ice core samples.
Therefore human emissions of Carbon Dioxide and other greenhouse gases are assisting in the accelerated rise of Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere that are not being absorbed.
Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere that are not absorbed trap infra-red radiation and assist and increase in the natural atmospheric and land temperatures.
THEREFORE HUMAN MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY USING FOSSIL FUELS IS ASSISTING IN ACCELERATING NATURAL GLOBAL WARMING.
The answer to the climate and environment questions is to reduce human output of Greenhouse Gases by reducing the use of those fossil fuels that output the Greenhouse Gases.
Looking forward the following questions have been asked.
What Fossil fuels are we still using ?
How long will they last ?
What will be the effects of the use of the remaining fossil fuels ?
What scenarios exist to control fossil fuel use ?
Human use of Energy Sources in 2013
Humans use Fossil Fuels as energy.
This is the current state of the fossil fuel reserves.
Coal
Total coal reserves of world 2010 = 861 billion tonnes
Total coal production of world 2012 = 7.2 billion tonnes
Source: http://www.ukcoal.com/why-coal/need-for-coal/world-coal-statistics
Total lifespan of world coal reserve 120 years = 2130
World coal peak point by production 60 years = 2070
Natural Gas
World Proven Gas reserves = 208.4 trillion cu m
World gas Production = 3.401 trillion cu m
World Gas reserve lifespan at current production level = 61 years
World Peak Gas Point in years 30 years = 2043
World Peak Gas total depletion point in years 61 = 2074
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Oil
World Proven Oil reserves = 1.532 trillion bbl
World Oil Production = 84.53 million bbl/day
World Oil reserve lifespan at current production level = 49 years
World Peak Oil Point in years 25 years
World Peak oil point = 2038
World Peak Oil total depletion point = 2062
Source: CIA World Fact book 2013
Total lifespan of all fossil fuel reserves = 230 years
Conclusion
Fossil fuel reserves are being used up by humans as their main energy sources.
Fossil fuel reserves will all be depleted in 230 years.
Humans need other sources of energy.
Fossil Fuel and CO2 release
Fossil fuels release Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gases as a bi-product of being reduced in density in oxygen by being burnt.
This is the current state of the fossil fuel reserves in terms of Carbon Dioxide.
Remaining fossil fuel reserves if converted to Gt CO2 as of 2011
oil = 1383,000,000,000 barrels x GTCO2
at conversion of 0.317 T CO2 / barrel = 438 Gt CO2
gas = 187,000,000,000,000 cu m x GT CO2
at 0.002043 T/m3 = 382 Gt CO2
coal = 860938,000,000 tonnes x GT CO2
at 2.383 T CO2 / tonne = 2052 Gt CO2
tar sands = 143,000,000,000 barrels x GTCO2 at conversion
of 0.317 T CO2 / barrel = 46 Gt CO2
Total Gt of CO2 = 2872 Gt CO2
Sources:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
http://numero57.net/2008/03/20/carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-barrel-of-crude/
http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/What%20we%20do/A%20low%20carbon%20UK/crc/1_20100122101538_e_@@_crcconversiontable.pdf
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/pages/conversion-factors.aspx
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/pages/conversion-factors.aspx
NB: 2,860 Gt CO as a comparison quoted as total carbon embedded in the world’s indicated fossil fuel reserves by http://carbontracker.live.kiln.it/Unburnable-Carbon-2-Web-Version.pdf
Total Reserves of fossil fuel in terms of Gt of CO2 = 2860 - 2872 Gt CO2
Applying the relation of Carbon to Carbon Dioxide
1 Gt of carbon = 3.67 Gt of CO2
1ppmv of CO2 = 2.13 Gt Carbon
1ppmv = 7.81 Gt of CO2
ppmv of CO2 remaining in fossil fuel reserves = 368ppmv
Gt of CO2 remaining in fossil fuel reserves = 2872 Gt CO2
if all burnt the final potential CO2 = 400 + 368 = 768ppmv of CO2
Scenario 1. Total fossil fuel use until depletion of fossil fuel reserves
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) embedded in the total
world fossil fuel reserves = 2,872 Gt of CO2.
Source:PB-unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-stranded-assets
Lifespan of all fossil fuels = 230 years
Ratio of carbon dioxide embedded in fossil fuels
to lifespan of fossil fuel reserves = 12.49 Gt of CO2 to 1 year
Increase in CO2 from 1850 to 2013 over 163 years
400ppmv – 280ppmv = 120 ppmv
Ratio of years (163) to ppmv (120) = 1.358 years to 1ppmv
Increase in CO2 at same rate for 230 years = 169 ppmv
CO2 levels in atmosphere 2013 = 400 ppmv
Source: Mauna Loa". NOAA. 2013.
Final CO2 ppmv after 230 years at same rate = 569 ppmv
So final CO2 potential release = 569ppmv - 768ppmv
Conclusion
This is a high level of Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that is not being absorbed and will assist in the increase in the temperature of the Earth.
There is a correlation between climate temperature rise and Carbon Dioxide Concentrations.
Source: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/temperature-change.html
280ppmv equates to approx 2 deg of temperature change over seasons
This allows for a ratio of 140ppmv to 1 deg
This CO2 ppmv of 569ppmv would put the temperature range above seasonal average of 4 deg
Applying this to a British seasonal average temperature range you will obtain
Minimum UK temp -22.3 °C (-8.1 °F)
Maximum UK temp 38.5 °C (101.3 °F)
This produces a new climate range of
Minimum UK temp -18.3 °C (-0.94 °F)
Maximum UK temp 42.5 °C (112.1 °F)
Hypothermia occurs 35.0 °C (95.0 °F) so the risk of hypothermia occurring is decreased
Hyperthermia occurs 37.5–38.3 °C (100–101 °F) so the risk of hyperthermia occurring is greatly increased.
The result after 230 years of a Carbon Dioxide concentration of 569ppmv is therefore unacceptable.
This CO2 ppmv of 768ppmv would put the temperature range above seasonal average of 6 deg
Applying this to a British seasonal average range
Minimum UK temp -22.3 °C (-8.1 °F)
Maximum UK temp 38.5 °C (101.3 °F)
This produces a new climate range of
Minimum UK temp -16.3 °C (2.66 °F)
Maximum UK temp 44.5 °C (112.1 °F)
Hypothermia occurs 35.0 °C (95.0 °F) so the risk of hypothermia occurring is decreased
Hyperthermia occurs 37.5–38.3 °C (100–101 °F) so the risk of hyperthermia occurring is greatly increased.
The result after 230 years of a Carbon Dioxide concentration of 768ppmv is therefore even more unacceptable.
Scenario 2. Fossil Fuel and CO2 release to Meet Kyoto or Cancun Agreements
These agreements set the carbon budget, the use of fossil fuel reserves, for a 2°C maximum temperature rise to meet up to 2050
Amount of fossil fuels allowed to be used = 565 – 886 Gt of CO2
Source:PB-unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-stranded-assets
Lifespan of all fossil fuels at same production rate = 71 years
Ratio of carbon embedded in fossil fuels to lifespan
of fossil fuel reserves = 12.49 Gt of CO2 to 1 year
Increase in CO2 from 1850 to 2013 over 163 years
400ppmv – 280ppmv = 120 ppmv
Ratio of years (163) to ppmv (120) = 1.358 years to 1ppmv
Increase in CO2 at same rate for 71 years = 96 ppmv
CO2 levels in atmosphere 2013 = 400 ppmv
Source: Mauna Loa". NOAA. 2013.
Final CO2 ppmv after 71 years at same rate = 496 ppmv
Conclusion
This CO2 ppmv would put the temperature range above seasonal average of 3.5 deg C
The effect of this is similar to the previous 569ppmv scenario 1 and so is unacceptable.
Scenario 3. Fossil Fuel and CO2 release better than Meet Kyoto and Cancun Agreements
These agreements together set the carbon budget, the use of fossil fuel reserves, for a 2°C maximum temperature rise to 2050 as a maximum control date.
Relating to 37 years between 2050 – 2013 and using the ratio of carbon embedded in fossil fuels to lifespan gives
Amount of fossil fuels allowed to be used = 460 Gt of CO2
Lifespan of all fossil fuels at same production rate = 37 years
Ratio of carbon embedded in fossil fuels to
lifespan of fossil fuel reserves = 12.49 Gt of CO2 to 1 year
Increase in CO2 from 1850 to 2013 over 163 years
400ppmv – 280ppmv = 120 ppmv
Ratio of years (163) to ppmv (120) = 1.358 years to 1ppmv
Increase in CO2 at same rate for 37 years = 50 ppmv
CO2 levels in atmosphere 2013 = 400 ppmv
Source: Mauna Loa". NOAA. 2013.
Final CO2 ppmv after 37 years at same rate = 450 ppmv
Conclusion
This CO2 ppmv would put the temperature range above seasonal average of 3 deg C
The effect of this is similar to the previous scenario 1 and 2 and so is unacceptable.
This level of 450ppmv also matches the International Energy Agency (IEA), 2007, World Energy Outlook Conference findings of 2007 in Paris.
Therefore the goal of a 2°C maximum temperature rise to meet up to 2050 as a maximum control date will not be achieved but it may act as a way forward to decreasing the use of fossil fuels.
Scenario 4. To achieve a 2°C maximum temperature rise
Carbon Dioxide (CO2) embedded in the total world fossil
fuel reserves = 2,872 Gt of CO2.
Source:PB-unburnable-carbon-2013-wasted-capital-stranded-assets
Amount of fossil fuels allowed to be used = - 2000 Gt of CO2
Lifespan of all fossil fuels at same production rate = -160 years
Ratio of carbon embedded in fossil fuels to lifespan
of fossil fuel reserves = 12.49 Gt of CO2 to 1 year
Increase in CO2 from 1850 to 2013 over 163 years
400ppmv – 283ppmv = 120 ppmv
Ratio of years (163) to ppmv (120) = 1.358 years to 1ppmv
Increase in CO2 at same rate for 0 (zero) years = -117 ppmv
CO2 levels in atmosphere 2013 = 400 ppmv
Source: Mauna Loa". NOAA. 2013.
Final CO2 ppmv after 0 (zero) years at same rate = 283 ppmv
Conclusion
This CO2 ppmv would put the temperature range above seasonal average of 2 deg C
This scenario would have to allow for a complete stop on the use of the fossil fuel reserves.
This reduces the energy ability of the world down to an 1850 level.
This reduces manufacturing ability of the world down to an 1850 level.
This is a pre-aviation, pre-mass radio communication, pre-mass transport, pre-mass energy world re-creation scenario.
This at the same production rate allows for a maximum end use date for fossil fuels of
283 ppmv = 2210 Gt of CO2
2872 Gt of CO2 - 2210 Gt of CO2 = 662 Gt of CO2
662 Gt of CO2 / 12.49 Gt of CO2 to 1 years = 53 years (up to 2066)
If the Atmosphere could absorb all of the CO2 added to it by humans then by 2066 the atmosphere should have returned to pre industrial levels.
This, based on previous paleoclimate records is however not the case as the Carbon Cycle can take thousands of years to recycle all of the CO2.
Therefore the effects of human burning of fossil fuels will last well into the next century and effect all life on Earth.
Environmental depletion will also cause resource depletion and it is not limited to fossil fuels. If Earth resources are to be used effectively through this next century to find new sources of energy then all natural Earth elements must be rationed.
End Summary
Humans have two choices.
They can continue to use fossil fuels at the same rate and allow temperatures to reach levels that will reduce human survival potential.
Alternatively they can stop using fossil fuels immediately and return to a pre-industrial civilization level until alternative non-fossil fuels can be developed within the next 53 years up to 2066 using the minimum amount of fossil fuel reserves to create these new technologies, and stabilize society through these changes to new energy, minimal resources and minimal environment depletion.
This is not occurring at the moment so the current 2013 estimate is that the climate change in temperature and its effects caused by humans will get worse.
Humans have to move towards a society form without manufacturing.
Towards an Architecture without Manufacturing.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
04/09/2013
14/10/2020
3024 words over 7 pages