The Increasing UK Energy Gap
This essay examines the UK energy gap. It states the problems, compares the 2014 - 2050 energy generation levels, the 2014 - 2050 energy production levels, the 2014 - 2050 energy consumption levels, the influence of the 2014 to 2050 population increase and the 2050 energy reduction factor to only renewable and hydro energy generation.
The energy gap is then identified.
Conclusions are then drawn.
The Problems
The UK is dependent on fossil fuel use to the level of 76% of its generating capacity.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
The dependency on fossil fuels is growing and not decreasing.
The dependency is overcome by importing fossil fuels.
To comply with UN Climate Agreements the UK will need to reduce its fossil fuel use to 34% below 1990 levels by 2020 and then by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050.
If fossil fuels are removed the energy generation in the UK will drop by 76% by 2050.
Current nuclear energy stations are due to be phased out by 2035 in the UK.
This would remove another 12.3% of total installed capacity (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
This will leave renewable energy and hydro as the main generation source.
7.3% of total installed capacity (2009 est.) is from renewables.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
1.9% of total installed capacity (2009 est.) is from hydro.
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
This would leave a total generation capacity in the UK by 2050 of 9.2% of the 2014 generation levels.
The 2014 - 2050 Energy Generation Levels
In 2014 the total installed generation capacity was 88.02 million kW (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
Allowing for only renewable and hydro generation at 9.2% maximum
In 2050 the total installed generation capacity would be 8.1 million kW.
The 2014 - 2050 Energy Production Levels
In 2014 the total energy production was 352.7 billion kWh (2010 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
In 2050 the total installed energy production would be 32.4 billion kWh.
The 2014 - 2050 Energy Consumption Levels
In 2014 the total energy consumption was 325.8 billion kWh (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015
This is for a population of 63.4 million would be 5138 kWh per head of population.
The 2014 to 2050 Population Increase.
In 2050 the UK population is estimated to be 77,000,000.
The energy generation consumption at 2014 levels results in a predicted total energy
consumption for 2050 of 395.6 billion kWh.
The 2050 Energy Reduction Factor
Allowing for the reduction in generating capacity to only 9.2%.
This would mean that the population would need 395.6 billion kWh but only get 32.4 billion kWh.
The Energy ‘Gap’.
There is a shortfall in energy; a ‘Gap’; of 363.2 billion kWh.
Conclusions
The size of the generation gap indicates that a national energy system larger than the existing national grid is required to be built at the same time that the existing national grid is reduced to approx. 10% of its generation capacity.
This is impossible to achieve.
A completely revised energy strategy is therefore needed for the UK to ensure that the population retain electrical supplies.
Since the data predicts that a national generation system cannot be maintained or constructed a localized solution of energy generation is needed for each household to allow each person in the UK to generate and consume the energy they need by themselves.
This solution removes all the national and private generation companies, grids, fuel provision, fuel bills by 2050 and replaces them with manufactured energy kits sold to the general public as consumer items.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
08/05/2015
14/10/2020
622 words over 2 pages