From Paper to Paperless
Is our society paperless and will it change to a paperless society up to 2050 ?
This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.
Populations
The user numbers possible for the post, paper electronic communications
system are.
Population 2013 = 63,395,574
Population 2020 = 63,746,151
Population 2050 = 77,000,000
Amount of communications
Number of papers posted each year = 330,000,000,000 – 430,000,000,000
Number of parcels each year = 6,000,000,000 - 6,100,000,000
Number of postal outlets = 660,000
Number of postal services = 191
Number of postal service personnel = 5,000,000
Source: Universal Postal Union and CEPI
Number of Email accounts = 3,300,000,000 (2012)
= 4,300,000,000 (2016)
Number of Emails sent daily = 294,000,000,000 (2012) daily
= 107,310,000,000,000 (2012) a year
Internet data traffic = 1,000,000,000 MBytes
Source: http://www.radicati.Internet com and CEPI
Books and E-readers
Total books sold a year = 202,000,000
Source: http://www.theguardian.com/books/
2013/jan/09/printed-book-sales-2012
Ereader sales = 14,000,000
Source: Informa and CEPI
Comparison to populations
Numbers of papers to population = 6,783 to 1 (2013)
Numbers of parcels to population = 96 to 1 (2013)
Number of Emails to population = 1,692,705 to 1
Papers sent to Emails sent = 1 to 250
Carbon dioxide production
Postal services = 10,902,500 t Co2
Per letter = 20 – 25 grams CO2
Email services = 965,790,000 t CO2
Per Email = 4 – 9 grams CO2 per email
Source: Universal Postal Union and CEPI
Conclusion
Our society is not yet paperless.
Electronic postal systems are more popular than paper or parcel systems.
Electronic postal systems are more efficient than paper or parcel systems by a factor of 2 to 5,000,000 in people needed to operate them.
Books are still more popular than E-readers in terms of a single purchase.
Books are reproduced using recycled material.
However books still require an initial compilation of an electronic text to allow printing.
E-Readers by there technological nature can be re-used, recycled as a product by the user and can connect to the electronic text of the book directly from the publisher.
Paper, inks fuel, vehicles, jobs, do not need to be manufactured and therefore trees can be retained for other environmentally friendly purposes such as bio fuels.
The Carbon dioxide produced by the issue of a single letter is more than a single email.
The Carbon dioxide produced by all letters is less than that produced by all emails due to the bulk of emails being sent.
The analysis can be expanded to include public services.
If the internet link is allowed for then schools, higher education, religions, doctors consultancy, policing, military, transport booking stations, media studios, theatres, film studios, music studios, radio studios, art galleries, museums, science and development, manufacturers, publishers, libraries, administration offices in settlements, utility companies and there associated buildings, infrastructure, public realm, public identity, staff, supplies and energy can be reduced and made redundant.
This changes our world architecture to a domestic level.
It becomes a home totally connected to the world using communication and outputting for its inhabitants all their needs through 3d printing.
The home is also research, manufacturing and publishing centre.
The home is within walking distance of its settlement centre and so the occupants can obtain everything locally each day.
The devices used to send and view electronic media are becoming smaller.
It is envisaged that the mobile phone and the communications system will integrate into a device that is approx. the size of half an A4 sheet, A5, paper.
It is a free device issued to all the people on the planet.
It has a screen input and viewing area.
It downloads or uses the software on a permanent, free, internet link.
It will have keyboard, stylus, voice, and human bio-inputs.
It will be charged by the user merely carrying it around with them.
A paper society has existed since 200 BC from its origins in China.
A paperless society is the direction we are moving in.
Its direction is made more sure by the depletion of environment, resources and energy by human populations.
We will have a recycled packaging, paperless communication, society by 2050.
Ian K Whittaker
Website:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
16/10/2013
14/10/2020
706 words over 2 page.