Architectural Change. World Changes 2017 to 2050 to 2100
Theory
The Earth will be undergoing environment. Resource and energy changes up to the year 2100 due to increases in human population.
These changes will fundamentally alter the relationship between human beings and the environment.
Method
For the years 2017, 2050 and 2100. The following will be examined in order to establish the current and evolving status of the Earth and the human relationship to its environment, resources and energy.
World Population, Refugees, Climate Refugees, Population Undernourished, Water Scarcity, Energy Scarcity, Temperature Increase, Surface Area, Ocean Area, Ocean Area After Sea Level Rise, Land Area, Agricultural Area, Dessert Area, Inhabited Area and Urban Area.
References are given in the text.
Conclusions are then drawn.
Data
2017
World Population 2017 = 7,500,000,000
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Refugees in 2017 = 68,250,000. 0.91 % of 2017 population.
Source: UNHCR
Source: http://www.unhcr.org/uk/statistical-yearbooks.html
Source: http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/
Climate Refugees = 112,500,000. 1.5% of 2017 population.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_migrant
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth
Population Undernourished = 825,000,000. 11% of population.
Source: https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/land-use-4905
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats UN World Food Programme.
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats 2015
Total renewable water resource on Earth. = 55,895 km3
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_renewable_water_resources
Water for total world population = 5.5895e+16 litres for the total world population.
Water for per person / year = 7,452,666 litres each per year.
Water per person / day = 20,418 litres / day.
Total available energy for population = 721,357,500,000,000 kWh (2014 est.) of electricity. .
Source: CIA World Fact book 2016
Total available per person / year = 96,181 kWh per person per year.
Total available per person / day = 264 kWh per person per day.
Temperature Increase = 0.99 deg C. (2016)
compared to -0.20 deg C (1880) annual mean
Source: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature
Earth Total Surface Area = 510,000,000 km2. 100%
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#safe=strict&q=world+land+area&spf=1499861658601
Less oceans (71% of surface) = 362,100,000 km2
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean
Ocean area after sea level rise = 362,100,000 km2 + 14,850,000 km2
= 376,950,000 km2
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/living-ocean
Source: www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/...sheets/...coasts/pop_coastal_areas.pdf
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean
Source: NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1
Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Source: National Climate Assessment 06/12/2012 Table ES-1.
Source: USGS, NOAA, SERDP, US Army Corps of Engineers
Source: Science 4 May 2012:
Source: Vol. 336 no. 6081 pp. 550-551 DOI: 10.1126/science.1220366
Source: Josh K. Willis Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Source: John A. Church Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Total ocean area as a % of surface area = 74%
Total land area as a % of surface area = 26%
Total land area Surface - Ocean = 133,050,000 km2
Agricultural Area = 37% of 26%
Allow Agricultural Areas = 0.007 km2 / person
Source: https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/land-use-4905
Excl. Agricultural Area = 49,228,500 km2
Dessert Areas = 33% of 26%
Excl. Desert Areas = 43,906,500 km2
Source: https://www.universetoday.com/.../what-percentage-of-the-earths-land-surface-is-desert/
Inhabited land area = 39,915,000 km2
Inhabited area allowance per person = 0.005 km2
Inhabited land area % total surface area = 8 % of 100%
Inhabited land area % of total land area = 30% of 26%
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 1,154
Area per person in urban areas = 0.0008 km2 per person
= 800 m2 per person
The total land area used as Urban Areas is = 3,510,000 km2
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth#Natural_resources_and_land_use
Percentage of urban to total land area = 3% of 30% of 26%
Percentage of urban to inhabited land area = 9%
Percentage of population in urban areas = 54%
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015.
Total Population in urban areas = 4,050,000,000
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 1,154
Area per person in urban areas = 0.0008 km2 per person = 800 m2 per person
2050
Environment
World Population 2050 = 9,600,000,000
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Refugees in 2050 at same percentage as 2017 = 88,360,000. 0.91 % of 2050 population.
Climate refugees = 150,000,000. 1.5% of 2050 population.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-climate-refugees
Population Undernourished = 1,056,000,000 people. 11% of population
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats UN World Food Programme.
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats 2015
Total renewable water resource on Earth. = 55,895 km3
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_renewable_water_resources
Water for total world population = 5.5895e+16 litres for the total world population.
Water for per person / year = 5,822,395 litres each per year.
Water per person / day = 15,951 litres / day.
Total available energy for population = 923,337,600,000,000 kWh (2014 est.) of electricity. .
Source: CIA World Fact book 2016
Fossil Fuels phased out = 64% of all generating capacity
Revised total available energy for population = 592,782,739,200,000 kWh of electricity.
Total available person / year excl. fossil fuels = 330,554,860,800,000 kWh of electricity.
Total available per person / year = 34,433 kWh per person per year.
Total available per person / day = 94 kWh per person per day.
Temperature Increase = Up to 2.6 deg C. warmer (2050)
compared to -0.20 deg C (1880) annual mean.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=29
Earth Total Surface Area = 510,100,000 km2
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#safe=strict&q=world+land+area&spf=1499861658601
Less Oceans after sea level rise = 376,950,000 km2
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/living-ocean
Source: www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/...sheets/...coasts/pop_coastal_areas.pdf
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean
Source: NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1
Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Source: National Climate Assessment 06/12/2012 Table ES-1.
Source: USGS, NOAA, SERDP, US Army Corps of Engineers
Source: Science 4 May 2012:
Source: Vol. 336 no. 6081 pp. 550-551 DOI: 10.1126/science.1220366
Source: Josh K. Willis Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Source: John A. Church Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Plus increase on 2017 levels = 388,258,500 km2
Total ocean area as a % of surface area = 76%
Total land area Surface - Ocean = 121,841,500 km2
Total land area as a % of surface area = 24% of 100%
Excl. Agricultural Areas = 0.007 km2 / person
Source: https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/land-use-4905 = 67,200,000 km2
Agriculture as a % of land area = 55% of 24%
Dessert Area = 33% of 24%
Excl. Desert Areas = 40,207,695 km2
Source: https://www.universetoday.com/.../what-percentage-of-the-earths-land-surface-is-desert/
Inhabited land area = 14,433,805 km2
Inhabited area allowance per person = 0.002 km2
Inhabited land area as % of total surface area = 3 %
Inhabited land area as % of total land area = 12% of 24%
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 1,477
Area per person in urban areas = 0.0006 km2 per person
= 600 m2 per person
The total land area used as Urban Areas is = 3,510,000 km2
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth#Natural_resources_and_land_use
Percentage of urban to total land area = 3%
Percentage of urban to inhabited land area = 24% of 12% of 24%
Percentage of population in urban areas = 54%
Source: CIA World Factbook 2015.
Total Population in urban areas = 5,184,000,000
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 1,477
Area per person in urban areas = 0.0006 km2 per person = 600 m2 per person
2100
Environment
World Population 2100 = 11,200,000,000
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population
Refugees in 2100 at same percentage as 2017= 101,920,000. 0.91 % of 2016 population.
Climate refugees = 150,000,000. 1.5% of 2100 population.
Population Undernourished = 1,232,000,000 people. 11% of population
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats UN World Food Programme.
Source: https://www.wfp.org/hunger/stats 2015
Total renewable water resource on Earth. = 55,895 km3
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_renewable_water_resources
Water for total world population = 5.5895e+16 litres for the total world population.
Water per person / year = 4,990,625 litres each per year.
Water per person / day = 13,673 litres / day.
Total available energy for population = 385,649,600,000,000 kWh (2014 est.) of electricity. .
Source: CIA World Fact book 2016
Fossil Fuels phased out = 64% of all generating capacity
Total available person / year excl. fossil fuels = 138,062,556,800,000 kWh of electricity.
Total available per person / year = 12,327 kWh per person per year.
Total available per person / day = 34 kWh per person per day.
Temperature Increase = 1.4 to 5.8 deg C= Up to 2.6 deg C. warmer (2100)
compared to -0.20 deg C (1880) annual mean.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=29
Earth Total Surface Area = 510,100,000 km2. 100%
Source: https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#safe=strict&q=world+land+area&spf=1499861658601
Less Oceans after sea level rise = 376,950,000 km2
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/living-ocean
Source: www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/...sheets/...coasts/pop_coastal_areas.pdf
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean
Source: NOAA Technical Report OAR CPO-1
Source: Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
Source: National Climate Assessment 06/12/2012 Table ES-1.
Source: USGS, NOAA, SERDP, US Army Corps of Engineers
Source: Science 4 May 2012:
Source: Vol. 336 no. 6081 pp. 550-551 DOI: 10.1126/science.1220366
Source: Josh K. Willis Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA.
Source: John A. Church Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Plus increase on 2050 levels = 397,878,000 km2
Total ocean area as a % of surface area = 78% of 100%
Total land area Surface - Ocean = 112,222,000 km2
Total land area as a % of surface area = 22% of 100%
Excl. Agricultural Areas = 0.007 km2 / person
Source: https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/-/land-use-4905 = 78,400,000 km2
Agriculture as a % of land area = 70% of 22%
Dessert Areas = 0% of 22%
Excl. Desert Areas (0% of total land) = 0 km2
Source: https://www.universetoday.com/.../what-percentage-of-the-earths-land-surface-is-desert/
NB: Inhabited land must increase to allow for increased population and increased agriculture.
Dessert areas are reclaimed to allow for this.
Inhabited land area = 33,822,000 km2
Inhabited area allowance per person = 0.003 km2
Inhabited land area as % of total surface area = 7 %
Inhabited land area as % of total land area = 30% of 22%
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 331
Area per person in urban areas = 0.003 km2 per person
= 3000 m2 per person
The total land area used as Urban Areas is = 33,822,000 km2
Percentage of urban to total land area = 30%
Percentage of urban to inhabited land area = 100% of 30% of 22%
Percentage of population in urban areas = 100%
Total Population in urban areas = 11,200,000,000
Humans per km2 in urban areas = 331
Area per person in urban areas = 0.003 km2 per person
= 3000 m2 per person
Conclusions
World Population
This will increase from 2017 to 2050 by 28% and by 17% from 2050 to 2100.
There will be 3,700,000,000 extra human beings on the planet by 2100.
Refugees
The number of refugees increases at the same percentage of the total populations from 2017 to 2050 and to 2100. 33,670,000 extra human beings by 2100 will be classified as being of concern to the UNHCR.
Climate Refugees
The number of refugees increases at the same percentage of the total populations from 2017 to 2050 and to 2100. 1,119,500,000 extra human beings by 2100 classified as being of concern to the UNHCR.
Population Undernourished
The number of refugees increases at the same percentage of the total populations from 2017 to 2050 and to 2100. 407,000,000 extra undernourished people by 2100.
Water Scarcity
Water available per person per day reduces by 33% by the year 2100.
Energy Scarcity
Energy available per person per day reduces by 87% by the year 2100.
Temperature Increase
The annual mean temperature of the Earth is projected to be 1.4 to 5.8 deg. warmer by the year 2100.
Temperature increase globally between 2017 and 2100 of 2 deg C places the majority of the counties on the planet in a human heat stress temperature near 40 deg c at some time in the year. This makes the hottest temperatures in each country possibly life threatening to human beings. This causes migration, and energy, food and water resource scarcity.
Surface Area
The total surface area of the Earth remains constant.
Ocean Area
The total ocean area of the Earth increases by 7% from 2017 to 2100.
This is parallel to a projected 45% increase in population in the same time period.
‘The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we can expect the oceans to rise between 11 and 38 inches (28 to 98 centimetres) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the U.S. East Coast. More dire estimates, including a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet, place sea level rise to 23 feet (7 meters), enough to submerge London.’
Source: http://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/global-warming/sea-level-rise/
‘There are about 620,000 kilometres (372,000 miles) of coastline. Over one-third of the total human population, nearly 2.4 billion people, lives within 100 km (60 miles) of an oceanic coast.’
Source: https://science.nasa.gov/earth-science/oceanography/living-ocean
If the estimate of the population affected; 2.4 billion; is taken as a percentage of the 2017 world population then 32% of the total world population would be affected.
If the 28% population increase up to 2050 is allowed for then the total population living by the coast could rise to 3,2 billion.
If the 17% population increase from 2050 to 2100 is allowed for then the total population living by the coast could rise to 3,7 billion.
Land Area
The total land area of the Earth decreases by 7% from 2017 to 2100.
This is parallel to a projected 45% increase in population in the same time period.
This is parallel to a projected 7% increase in the ocean area in the same time period.
Sea level rise and loss of land area could potentially displace 32% of the total human population in 2017. 33% of the total human population in 2050 and 38% of the of the total human population in 2100.
Dessert areas will need to be reclaimed as inhabitable area to allow for population increase, sea level rise and loss of land area.
Agricultural Area
The total agricultural area of the Earth has to increase to allow for an increased human population, sea
level rise and loss of land area. The increase can be estimated as being from 37% of the land area to
70% of the land area.
Dessert Area
The total dessert area of the Earth has to decrease and be converted to habitable and agricultural land to allow for an increased human population, sea level rise and loss of land area. The increase can be estimated as dessert reducing from 33% of the land area to 0% of the land area.
Inhabited Area
The total inhabited land area decreases from 2017 to 2050 as land is lost to sea level rise.
The total inhabited land area increases again from 2017 to 2100 as land is reclaimed from dessert.
The area per person in the inhabited areas reduces from 2017 to 2050 by 60%.
The area per person in the inhabited areas increases again from 2050 to 2100 by 50%.
The difference in area per person in the inhabited areas between 2107 and 2100 is 0.002 km2.
This is a drop from 5000m2 to 2000m2 per person by 2100.
Urban Area
The percentage of population living in urban areas increases from 54% in 2017 to 100% by 2100.
The humans per km2 in urban areas increases from 2017 to 2050.
The humans per km2 in urban areas decreases from 2050 to 2100.
The area per person available in urban areas decreases between 2017 and 2050 by 25%
The area per person increases by a factor of 5 between 2050 and 2100.
This is because the dessert areas are reclaimed as habitable areas.
The Earth will be undergoing environmental, resource and energy changes up to the year 2100 due to increases in human population.
These changes will fundamental alter the relationship between human beings and the environment.
The future for humans is one of ongoing depletion of environment, resources and energy.
The data indicates Humans face an environmental, energy and resource paradox within this century.
The nature of human existence on Earth from 2017 onwards from the data necessarily involves less environmental use, less energy use and less resource use to allow human society to survive.
However in order for Human society to survive the loss of mineral extraction to develop technology to allow them to achieve fusion energy levels also indicates that humans must deplete all available resources in order to develop technology to leave the Earth and colonize other planets.
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/Article 225 Status of the Mineral Resources of the Earth 2017
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-236---the-human-save-the-planet-conceit
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
06/02/2018
14/10/2020
2692 words over 7 pages