Why Britain will become a renewable green and pleasant land.
Britain has a system of energy generation that is almost 100 years old.
75.4% of it relies on burning fossil fuels.
Electricity from fossil fuels 75.4% of total installed capacity (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
It generates energy but does not store it so that the potential energy of the fossil fuel source is lost by the trillions of watts every hour of generation.
It energises and transports energy across a national grid to allow a single light to be lit in a single room in a single home,
It looses energy in transporting energy.
It has been a wonder, a resource.
It is now antiquated and in need of radical replacement.
This process of change has; in the past; been gradual due to our limited island resources and reliance on imports.
Due to external factors the method of generation of energy in Britain will change to a completely fossil free state over the next 37 years.
The external factors involved are Climate change and Fossil Fuel depletion
These changes influence each other.
However it appears that the greatest influence is not climate change but the depletion of fossil fuels reserves that is the dominating factor.
The following is an examination of this change in terms of climate change and fossil fuel reserve influence on the changes to the energy strategy of Britain.
Britains Current Energy status in 2013
Electricity – production: 352,700,000,000 kWh (2010 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Electricity - consumption: 325,800,000,000 kWh (2009 est.)
Source: CIA World Factbook 2013
Britains reserves of fossil fuels and converting them into Tonnes CO2 equivalent in 2013
Oil Britain crude oil reserves were
310,100,000,000 bbl/day x 0.317 T CO2 / barrel
= 98,301,700,000 T CO2
Gas Britain’s natural gas, proven reserves stood at
253,000,000,000 cu m in 2012.x 0.002043 T/m3
= 516,879,000 T/m3
Coal Britain total coal reserves in 2011 stood at
3196,000,000 tonnes x 2.383 T CO2 / tonne
= 7,616,068,000 T CO2
Shale Gas Britain’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at
5,521,800,000 cu m x 0.317 T CO2 / barrel
= 1,750,410,600 T CO2
The total emissions of fossil fuels if all reserves burnt
= 108,185,057,600 T CO2
Sources:
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
http://numero57.net/2008/03/20/carbon-dioxide-emissions-per-barrel-of-crude/
http://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/What%20we%20do/A%20low%20carbon%20UK/crc/1_20100122101538_e_@@_crcconversiontable.pdf
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/pages/conversion-factors.aspx
http://www.carbontrust.co.uk/cut-carbon-reduce-costs/calculate/carbon-footprinting/pages/conversion-factors.aspx
NB: 2,860 Gt CO as a comparison quoted as total carbon embedded in the world’s indicated fossil fuel reserves by http://carbontracker.live.kiln.it/Unburnable-Carbon-2-Web-Version.pdf
Changes due to Climate Change - The Climate Change Act 2008
This Act sets the baseline for carbon emissions at the 1990 levels of Tonnes of CO2 and greenhouse gas output.
It then required a 26% reduction below the 1990 baseline by 2020.
This became a 34% reduction below the 1990 baseline in the 2009 budget statement.
It then requires an 80% reduction below the 1990 baseline by 2050.
Changes due to Climate Change - The effects of the Climate Change Act and the UN Climate Agreements
If all of the current fossil fuel reserves were burnt the T CO2 emission potential would be
= 108,185,057,600 T CO2
The 1990 Greenhouse gas incl. CO2 emissions were
= 771,900,000 T CO2
Reducing the CO2 emissions by 34% of from the 1990 baseline
= 262,446,000 T CO2
Reducing the CO2 emissions by 80% from the 1990 baseline
= 617,520,000 T CO2
It becomes apparent from this comparison that Britain has the potential to currently burn 140 times the T CO2 from 1990 levels.
It is however restricted to achieving levels T CO2 emissions below the 1990 T CO2 production baseline.
Therefore Britain is faced with several choices.
Britain can reduce its total T CO2 output to the 1990 levels and then make percentage reductions on these levels.
This however means that it cannot burn all of the remaining fossil fuel reserves since this already exceeds the 1990 T CO2 levels.
If Britain cannot burn all of the remaining fossil fuel reserves the economy will then revert to a pre-1990 level of manufacture and energy use.
Therefore the remaining fossil fuel reserves will remain unused initially and then only used to manufacture renewable energy sources until the renewable energy level of generation is high enough to assist in the manufacture of renewable energy sources.
Britain can use the fossil fuel reserves at the current 2013 production and consumption rates. This however means that Britain will exceed the 1990 T CO2 levels.
Britain can use the fossil fuel reserves at the 1990 T CO2 level of production and consumption. This however means that Britain will not be able to burn all of the remaining reserves since this will exceed the 1990 T CO2 levels.
Britain can reduce the dependency on fossil fuels by replacing it with renewable energy sources. This does necessitate the use of some fossil fuels to allow construction of the renewable energy sources.
All options alter the electricity generating and production capacity of Britain and its economy.
Changes due to fossil fuel reserves.
Excluding the climate change factors the time span for fossil fuel resource depletion will also drive the economy towards a fossil fuel free level.
Britains own oil reserves will run out by 2018-2020 based on the 2011 production rate and it will be totally reliant on imports which will be reducing world wide.
Britains own gas reserves will run out by 2016-2020 based on the 2011 production rate and it will be totally reliant on imports which will be reducing world wide.
Britain’s own coal reserves, divided by 2012 production, gives a total lifespan of coal reserve of 190 years up till the year 2201.
Britain’s recoverable shale gas reserves are estimated at 10-15% of the assessed drilling license area and volume, this gives a reserve of 5,521,800,000 cu m
Britain’s shale gas reserves divided by 2011 natural gas production gives a total lifespan of less than a year up to 2014.
Therefore even excluding the climate change agreements Britain; which currently has 75.4% of its total installed electrical generating capacity run by fossil fuels; must move towards a fossil fuel free economy before fossil fuel resources deplete.
Ian K Whittaker
Website: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
25/09/2013
14/10/2020
1040 words over 3 pages