The Seabed Mining Issues
Background
Humans are entering an era of depleting environment, energy and resources.
Environment is depleting due to the human use of fossil fuels that produce greenhouse gases and so accelerate the effects of global climate change.
Energy is depleting due to the excessive use of fossil fuels by humans to the point where the fuel supplies are depleted.
Renewable sources of energy are being created but only through the use of fossil fuel technology.
Alternative energy sources are not yet developed enough to replace fossil fuel supplies.
Resources are depleting due to the excessive consumption of humans of natural resources to produce consumer goods.
Food and Water resources have depleted to the point where not all the humans on Earth can survive.
Human population is still increasing and accelerating all of these depletions.
Depletion State and Need
Several key minerals have been identified as being in a depletion state that indicates a peak point between 2011 – 2061 after which they will no longer be viable to be mined, processed and sold. This when adjusted to allow for the reduction in fossil fuels has a critical effect around the year 2044.
The minerals in question are Manganese, copper, cobalt, nickel, iron, tellurium, bismuth and platinum.
These all play major roles in the human economy in key areas such as steel, alloys, electronics, batteries, medicines and pigments.
Manganese Depletion State Example
World mine production of Manganese 2006 = 31,200,000 tonnes
World mine production of Manganese = 16,000,0000 tonnes
Source: USGS 2012
World reserves of Manganese = 630,000,000 tonnes
Source: USGS 2012
Depletion timescale = 39 years = 2051
Peak timescale = 19 years = 2031
Response
Mining of mineral resources depletes the environment, fossil fuel energy sources and fossil resources.
It is however vital to the ongoing survival of humans on the planet and their technological evolution. Mineral resources will deplete as fossil fuels deplete and cheap energy declines.
Some resources have depleted to the point where alternative mining locations are being considered.
One location is the mining of the sea bed for minerals.
This analysis examines the nature of Sea Bed mining.
The Sea Bed Mining Solution
The land resources of these critical elements are depleting.
The remaining resources are on the ocean floor, seamounts and abyssal hills.
A proposal has been ongoing since the 1960’s to mine the ocean seabed for these minerals.
The original proposal was discontinued in the 1980s but is now being legislated for and developed as a technology.
Occurrence of Sea Bed Minerals
Surface Manganese is only 1000 ppm or 0.1% of the Earths total crust.
In 510,072,000 sq km you would only find 51,072 sq km of Manganese
In 354,344,066 sq km of seabed you would only find 35,344 sq km of Manganese.
The deposits of seabed minerals are in several forms.
At depths of 3,000m to 6,000m ( 2 to 4 miles ) Poly metallic Nodules of 30% Manganese that also contain 1.5% copper, 0.3% cobalt and 1.5% nickel.
At depths of 3,700m ( 3 miles ) Poly metallic Sulphides of copper, zinc, lead, galena, gold, silver
At depths of 800 to 2,400m ( 0.5 to 1.5 miles ) Ferrow Manganese crusts of Manganese, cobalt, iron
At depths of 800 to 2,400m deposits of tellurium, bismuth and platinum
Administration of Sea Bed Mining
The areas of possible exploration and extraction of minerals are licensed for by United Nations Charter through the establishment of the International Seabed Authority.
Scope of Sea Bed Mining
The International Seabed Authority has established a total area
for exploration = 770,000 sq km
Source: www.isa.org
This as a percentage of the total seabed 354,344,066 sq km = 0.2%
Source of seabed area: Topography statistics for the surface and seabed area, volume,
depth and slope, 1 of the world’s seas, oceans and countries Mark John Costello,
Alan Cheung, Nathalie De Hauwere
The International Seabed Authority has established a total area
for nodule exploration of = 75,000 sq km
Source: www.isa.org
The International Seabed Authority has established a total area
for sulphide exploration of = 10,000 sq km
Source: www.isa.org
The total Manganese reserves are estimated at = 10,000,000,000 tonnes
Source: www.isa.org
These figures can also be linked to the Manganese production levels in 2012
Manganese Occurrences, and Depletion Example With Sea Bed Mining
Seabed Reserves of Manganese = 10,000,000,000 tonnes
Source: www.isa.org
World mine production of Manganese = 16,000,0000 tonnes/yr
Source: USGS 2012
Depletion timescale = 625 years = 2637
Peak timescale = 313 years = 2325
The total mining area = 770,000 sq km
Allowing for seabed Manganese at only
1000 ppm or 0.1% of the Earths total crust and
at seabed level. = 770,000 x 0.1%
Total potential Manganese in total exploration area = 0 sq km to 77,000 sq km
Total mining exploration area for Manganese
nodules at same %
= 75,000 x 0.1%
Total potential Manganese in total nodule area = 0 sq km to 7,500 sq km
Total sulphide exploration area = 10,000 sq km
Total potential Manganese in total sulphide area
at same % = 10,000 x 0.1%
Total potential Manganese in total sulphide area = 0 sq km to 1,000 sq km
Total seabed reserves at same % = 10,000,000,000 x 0.1%
= 1,000,000,000 tonnes
Allowing for same mine production of Manganese = 16,000,000 tonnes /yr Depletion timescale = 63 years = 2075
Peak timescale = 31 years = 2043
Financing of the Sea Bed Mining
Based on the original, discontinued, mining from 1960 to 1982
the total cost of the operation to mine the seabed would be = $650,000,000
This at 2014 values equates to = $936,000,000
Source: Wikipedia and associated refs incl Glasby, G P. "Lessons Learned from
Deep-Sea Mining." Science Magazine 28 July 2000: 551-53. = $43,200,000 / yr
Given that alternative extraction forms such as jackup rigs,
semi-submersible rigs, or sea-bed rigs are unfeasible drilling
ships are considered the most effective, established technology.
Capital Costs of Sea Bed Mining
Allowing for exploration by remotely operated vehicle.
Allowing for 2 ships and a total crew of 160 at sea 24 hours a day
7 days a week in shifts
Allowing for 4 ore ships and a total crew of 128 at sea and land
24 hours a day 7 days a week
Allowing for ore processing facilities with 500 staff operating
24 hours a day for 7 days a week
Allowing for total crew = 780
Allowing for total labour costs = $324,000,000/yr
Allowing for recovery rate of minerals = 1,500,000
to 3,000,000 tonnes /yr
Capital Cost Allowance per Year = $3,000,000,000
Total capital cost over one year = $3,324,000,000 /yr
Source: www.lib.noaa.gov/about/news/antrim_10252012
On the Verge, Deep Seabed Mining Opportunities and Hurdles Caitlin Antrim
Sales per Year
Allowing $2.20 per kg / 1000kg / tonne = $2,200 / tonne
Source: http://www.infomine.com/investment/metal-prices/Manganese/
Allowing for 1,500,000 tonnes extraction / year sales = $3,300,000,000
Allowing for 3,000,000 tonnes extraction / year sales = $6,600,000,000
Profit or Loss per Year
Over 1 year potential loss = -$24,000,000
Over 1 year potential profit = $3,276,000,000
Combining Resource and Finance Information
Total seabed reserves at Manganese occurrence % = 10,000,000,000 x 0.1%
= 1,000,000,000 tonnes
Allowing for current mine production of Manganese = 16,000,000 tonnes /yr Depletion timescale = 63 years = 2075
Peak timescale = 31 years = 2043
Allowing 2 drilling ships that can recover Ore at
1,500,000 to 3,000,000 tonnes / yr 2 ships to maintain
24hr recovery rate in shifts = 333 years reserves
Conclusions
Taking the same percentages relating to the location and mining of Manganese on the sea bed and making a land area analogy. Searching and mining for Manganese is like trying to search the whole Earth in pitch darkness for an area the size of Hong Kong Island containing a potato sized piece of rock in it and then to repeat the exercise.
The percentages of Manganese available on the seabed from extraction would only slightly alleviate the current resource problem since its extraction rate is less than current production rate needs.
The initial capital value requires a resource of about 1 to 2 years value to be a worthwhile investment.
The payback for the total capital cost post investment would be optimally at 1 to 2 years.
If increased above this level with more ships, bases and crew then the capital cost would exceed sales value and produce an ongoing financial loss per year for several years.
The seabed mining will not stop the ongoing depletion in Manganese production and so manufacturing ability will not increase because of it.
Even though the area for seabed mining is less than 0.2% of the total seabed there is also the ecological damage that will occur to be considered.
The resource to be extracted took 20 million years to evolve.
Humans are going to extract it all in 333 years.
The use of fossil fuel resources will deplete during the mining period to comply with the UN Climate Agreements and so this will reduce the effectiveness of the seabed mining operation.
These conclusions indicate that the mining operation is viable in a very short term timescale.
Without the seabed mining operation humans will still endure environment, energy and resource depletion.
Humans will be faced with having to mine the oceans eventually but by then the resource and energy to achieve it will not be available.
Therefore for the sake of human survival and technological progression the seabed mining project should take place.
It will be an heroic enterprise.
Something to lift humanity from the ordinary into the extraordinary.
Ian K Whittaker
My websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
20/08/2014
14/10/2020
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