Housing 1930 - 2050 in the UK
The following analysis examines the timeline of housing provision in the UK in order to establish the relationships between house values, wages, payment ability, house size, house type, tenure type, number of houses, total population and people per house.
The data is indicated in sequence to allow comparison.
Conclusions and effects from the data and the context in which it was collected are then made.
Year 1930
House Value £590
Annual wage £200
House value to wage ratio 3 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type local authority
Number of houses 10,000,000
Total population 45,870,000
People per house 5
Year 1946
House Value £1459
Annual wage £381
House value to wage ratio 4 to 1
House size 53 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type local authority
Number of houses 12,500,000
Total population 9,220,000
People per house 4
Year 1950
House Value £1940
Annual wage £497
House value to wage ratio 4 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type local authority
Number of houses 13,800,000
Total population 50,616,000
People per house
Year 1960
House Value £2530
Annual wage £949
House value to wage ratio 3 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type Private enterprise
Number of houses 16,000,000
Total population 52,816,000
People per house 3
Year 1970
House Value £4975
Annual wage £1800
House value to wage ratio 3 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type local authority and private enterprise
Number of houses 19,000,000
Total population 55,606,000
People per house 3
Year 1980
House Value £23596
Annual wage £7600
House value to wage ratio 3 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses 21,000,000
Total population 56,329,000
People per house 3
Year 1989
House Value £54,846
Annual wage £16,123
House value to wage ratio 4 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses 22,000,000
Total population 57,459,000
People per house 3
Year 1990
House Value £59,785
Annual wage £17,700
House value to wage ratio 3 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses 22,500,000
Total population 57,899,000
People per house 3
Year 1999
House Value £93,521
Annual wage £26,493
House value to wage ratio 4 to 1
House size 153 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses 24,000,000
Total population 59,501,000
People per house 2
Year 2000
House Value £101,550
Annual wage £27,700
House value to wage ratio 4 to 1
House size 76 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses 25,000,000
Total population 59,648,000
People per house 2
Year 2005
House Value £190,760
Annual wage £33,364
House value to wage ratio 5 to 1
House size 76 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Number of houses 25,900,000
Total population 60,975,000
People per house 2
Year 2009
House Value £226,064
Annual wage £37,600
House value to wage ratio 6 to 1
House size 76 m2
House type 4 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses approx. 26,000,000
Total population 61,595,000
People per house 2
Year 2014
House Value £272,000
Annual wage £26,500
House value to wage ratio 10 to 1
House size 86 m2
House type 3 bed 2st semi-detached
Main tenure type private enterprise
Number of houses approx. 27,000,000
Total population 64,100,000
People per house 2
Conclusions
The house values are increasing
The annual wages are increasing up to 2009 when the wages start to decrease.
The house value to wage ratio is increasing and has doubled from the 1930 3 to 1 to the 2009 10 to 1
The house size is decreasing. The 1930's house is 153m2 in total area. The 2014 house is 86m2 in area.
The house type is decreasing The 1930's house is a 4 bed 2st semi-detached. The 2014 house is a 3 bed 2st semi-detached.
The main tenure type in 1930 is public authority and private enterprise post 1960.
The total number of houses is increasing.
The total population is increasing.
The average number of people in each house has reduced from 5 in 1930 to 2 in 2014.
With the population at 64,100,000 and 27,000,000 houses the housing stock accounts for 2.3, or 3 people per household.
Effects
All of the houses were all built for less money than their sales value. The sales value has increased even though the houses have become out of date within a decade of being built. With increased value the money to purchase, the mortgage, the mortgage repayments, the refurbishment costs of all of the properties have all increased.
The housing provision for the population is promoted by a feudal land ownership, consumerist, false value economics driven by prestige and peer acceptance.
The house value to wage ratio has increased constantly and has trebled from the 1930 ratio of 3 to 1 to the 2014 ratio of approx.10 to 1.
The regional variation in wages has effected house prices, the availability of mortgages, the land values, the population movement and the land ownership in the UK.
It is apparent that the annual wages; whilst increasing up to 2009; have never been able to purchase housing and still keep the wage earner at a financial living state. Consequently houses have been described as a luxury item. They should be within the purchasing ability; without the necessity for debt; of every person in the country.
In the house building industry; based on the above historic data; the debt attached to purchasing a house has been used to turn the human need for shelter into a debt incentive to make the population work harder and for longer during their life. For a 'living wage'. For the 'right to live' in the country.
The decrease in house size has been described as placing the occupiers under increasingly cramped and poorer quality living conditions but this is a wrong conclusion.
An actual comparison of the 1930's house to the 2014 house requires a comparison of contexts.
The initial 1930's houses are a response to a depression level economy.
They are built from materials available locally in Britain but still recovering from material depletions following the great 1914-1918 war.
The houses are built by the state, by state employees, by registered tradespeople. The completed homes rely on maintenance and repairs undertaken by trained craftspeople. They are a liberalist, socialist solution to shelter for the population. They maintain this class political nature in their design forms that are repetitive and have generalized, group approved, peer approved, forms, materials, finishes, volumes and areas.
The 1930's to 1960 houses are a response to a counter-culture beyond need into individual values, wants and desires They are built from materials available globally. The rarer forms, materials, finishes, volumes and areas achieving the greatest level of prestige for the owners or occupiers. They revel in the use of terms new to the workers house forms of Britain. The patio, the balcony, the pool, the gazebo, the terrace. All contradictions to the actual environmental response housing in Britain should make. Thus the houses return to Mediterranean forms during this period.
The houses are built by private builders, contractors, developers, by hired in multiple trade employees, and by a few registered tradespeople. The completed homes rely on maintenance and repairs undertaken by untrained occupiers through DIY skills. They are a conservative solution to shelter for the population. They maintain this class political nature in their design forms that are individual and have product focused, style orientated, advertisement approved, designer peer approved, forms, materials, finishes, volumes and areas. They
The 1970's to 2014 houses are an ongoing response to response to a post-consumer context.
They are moving out of the individual values, wants and desires, into a need to maintain a home during environmental, resource and energy depletion .
They are increasingly built from materials available locally through stripping out and recycling.
The rarer forms, materials, finishes, volumes and areas are discarded to a minimalist aesthetic, area and volume. They have discarded all contradictions to the actual environmental response the housing in Britain should make. The houses will return to simpler forms during this period.
The houses are increasingly built by owner occupiers. The completed homes rely on maintenance and repairs undertaken by the occupiers. They are a coalition solution to shelter for the population. They maintain this class political nature in their design forms that are individual recycled product focused, recycled style orientated, anti-advertisement approved, anti-designer peer approved, minimal forms, materials, finishes, volumes and areas.
In terms of house design there has been a constant improvement in responses to the occupier’s health, sanitation, environment, heat, light, sound control, privacy, security, communications, leisure, transport, access, and actual useable space whilst still being more energy, resource and environment economic in volume and surface area.
The design movement is towards eco-friendly, passive houses built when needed by the occupants themselves. This will change the financing, land ownership, house ownership, planning and building control approvals contexts up to the year 2050 in the UK.
The change in tenure is indicative of the change from a liberal to socialist, nationalized, economy into a conservative, private enterprise, ideology and economy. It is an example of the move from provision of housing by state altruism to pacify the lower classes into state nationalized socialist stagnation into self-motivated conservatism.
The ideology is Feudalism. Land allocation influencing the moods of the population.
Once the ‘self’ occupier is incentivized to purchase a house they must identify with a class group. The occupier is then incentivized by the house form to defend it by changing political consciousness to match that of the state.
The post 2015 end of fossil fuels incentive is external to the state and so ultimately unknown in its extent of influence and will. It is not human. It is the ecology humans exist in and have altered through their actions until it is now threatening human existence.
This is the main future influence on housing.
The number of house is increasing and is likely to increase as the self-build methods take over the outdated, professional, craft based, state approval dependant building industry.
The total population is increasing and so will place an ongoing demand to retain, strip out, reform, self -convert, self-refurbish, self-new build the UK housing sector stock.
The reduction in the average number of people in each house has reduced from 5 in 1930 to 2 in 2014.
This will increase up to the stage where environmental resource and energy depletion becomes the normal life condition post 2015 with the assignment of the UN Agreement on Climate change and the associated reduction in the use of fossil fuels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
With the current population at 64,100,000 and the housing stock at 27,000,000 there are 2.3, 3 people per household. If the population reaches the 73,000,000, to 77,000,000 predicted between 2035 and 2050 then even with the current 27,000,000 houses they will only need to accommodate 2.8, 3 to 4 people.
The current housing stock is therefore sufficient even after the depletion in energy, resources and environment is considered post 2015.
The past housing forms have achieved their basic design requirement. They have housed human beings and allowed them to prosper in life.
This has however been achieved through a false value consumerist, debt equals growth economy.
The future housing provision will be built only when needed by the occupants themselves to meet the post 2015 context of depletion of energy, resources and environment.
References
www.statistics.gov.uk/ socialtrends39 (for house building numbers)
Table 502 Housing market: house prices from 1930, annual house price inflation, United Kingdom, from 1970
Table 241 House building: permanent dwellings completed, by tenure United Kingdom historical calendar year series
ONS UK population size since 1946
http://www.populstat.info/Europe/unkingdc.htm The UNITED KINGDOM : country population
New homes have shrunk by a third since the 1920s - Telegraph By Richard Alleyne 12:01AM BST 09 Apr 2003
https://uk.answers.yahoo.com
When London house prices were £350 in the 1930s by Tejvan Pettinger on May 13, 2013 in economics
__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom and associated sources and references
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/16/house-prices-record-bubble-interest-rates-uk
Ian K Whittaker
My websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
06/10/2014
14/10/2020
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