Article 224 - How to get to 80% Emissions Reduction Target in the UK by 2050
How to get to 80% Emissions Reduction Target in the UK by 2050
This essay examines the key methods in which the UK can reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 in order to comply with their International Climate Control Agreements.
The principles behind the emissions reduction are outlined.
The General Factors applicable to all methods of emission control, Population, Environment, Resources, Energy, Climate are outlined.
The key methods discussed are those with the highest percentage emission reductions potential from the Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) Pathway Calculator.
The methods are listed in size of emissions achieved.
The percentage emission reduction obtained from each method, their current state in the UK, the model for each method, the costs, the timescales and the operating lifespan are all considered.
The Growth in Industrial Output Falls by 30% to 40% by 2050 method of emissions reduction is discussed in terms of labour force, labour force by occupation, labour force by Gross Domestic Product percentage and by each sector.
Finally conclusions are drawn as to the feasible and non-feasible methods to achieve 80% emissions by 2050.
Principles
By the year 2050 we need to dramatically change the way we produce and consume energy.
Government targets require us to reduce emissions to 20% of 1990 levels.
The UK is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels.
To do this we must decarbonise the UK economy while ensuring secure and affordable energy supplies.
The 2050 DECC Calculator lets you take control and create your own energy pathway for the country.
The calculator allows you to consider the choices and trade-offs we face.
It covers all parts of the economy and all greenhouse gas emissions released in the UK.
The purpose of the calculator is to build an energy pathway for the UK that hits the 80% CO2 emission reduction target.
Source: http://2050-calculator-tool.decc.gov.uk/#/guide
General Factors - Population, Environment, Resources, Energy, Climate.
The key methods of achieving a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and decarbonizing the UK economy all relate to the general factors of Population, Environment, Resources and Energy availability between 2017, 2050 and 2100.
Population. 2017, 2050 and 2100
The UK Population in 2017 is 65,511,098
Source: www.UKometers.info/UK-population/uk-population/
The UK Population by 2050 is projected to be 77,000,000
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/uk-population-to-hit-70-million-ons-in-less-than-a-decade
The UK Population by 2100 is projected to be 91,227,569
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary
The increase in population between 2017 and 2050 is 18% approx. 11,488,902 people
The increase in population between 2050 and 2100 is 18.5% approx. 14,227,569 people
Environment 2017, 2050 and 2100
The inhabited land area of the UK excluding land lost to sea level rise, inland water and agricultural area is 15% of the total land area. 38,480 km2. 0.0005 km2 / person.
The land lost to periodic flooding is variable. If the area of land lost to the 2007 floods is allowed for then 100% of the country could suffer flooding from 75mm to greater than 350mm.
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7446721.stm
The agricultural land area is 71% of the total land area. 171,770 km2 . 0.002 km2 / person
Source: https://UK.esa.int/web/guest/-/land-use-4905
The urban area is 11% of the total land area. 27,187 km2 . 0.0007 km2 / person.
In 2017 83% of the population. 54,374,211people live in urban areas.
In 2050 the numbers remain the same except for the total population in urban areas as 83% is 63,910,000 people. 0.0004 km2 per person.
In 2100 the numbers remain the same except for the total population in urban areas as 100% is 91,227,569 people. 0.0003 km2 per person.
The UK becomes gradually denser in population until it has one habitable urban area surrounded by a patchwork of agricultural land.
Resources 2017, 2050 and 2100
The percentage of agricultural land remains the same in the UK from 2017 to 2100 to provide the same level of food for increasing population at 2017 standards.
The UK total renewable water resource availability due to population increase will decrease by 4 years of resource per 83 years.
This gives a maximum renewable water resource duration in the UK of 208 years before it is completely used up. 2017 to 2225.
This ratio retains the same level of water provision for domestic, industry and agriculture per capita between 2017 and 2100.
Energy 2017, 2050 and 2100
In 2017 the energy consumption is 13 kWh per person per day.4717 kWh per person per year.
In 2050 the energy consumption is 4 kWh per person per day.1363 kWh per person per year.
In 2100 the energy consumption is 4 kWh per person per day.1363 kWh per person per year.
There is a 71.1 % drop in energy in the UK from 2017 to 2050 to allow for the removal of fossil fuels and to assist in controlling greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.
This loss of high energy fuels occurs at the same time as an increase in population and a corresponding energy need of 17.5%
There is a need for an 18% increase in renewable energy production between 2050 and 2100 to allow for population increase and stabilizing the energy at 2050 levels. This may be achieved by using the last of the fossil fuels; and their higher energy levels; to create new renewable energy systems.
There is a 69% drop in energy per person per day from 2017 to 2050
There is a stabilization of available energy between 2050 and 2100 at 69% of 2017 energy levels per person per day.
If Fusion energy can come on line it would increase available energy levels by a factor of 5.
Climate
There is currently a high likely hood of a temperature Increase by 2 deg C by 2100.
This has effects on the temperature of the climate system, ocean warming and expansion, loss of land to sea level rise, increased precipitation, increased drought, acidification of oceans, loss of mass to Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Artic sea ice extent reduction, water resource depletion, food resource depletion, ecosystem depletion, economic collapse, conflicts, wars, threats to human survival.
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
Key Methods to Decarbonise the UK Economy
The following changes offer the largest percentage reduction in emissions.
They are listed in size of emissions achieved.
Method 1: Nuclear Power
50, 3GW nuclear power stations delivering 1030 Twh/yr. 1,030,000 GWh/yr
50 x 3GW, 150 GW power station delivering 1,030,000 GWh/yr, 1 GW delivering 6,866 GWh/yr
This achieves 29% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Nuclear Power in the UK
Nuclear power generates 18.5% of the UK power (2012)
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
The UK has 15 operating nuclear reactors at seven plants.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
Other sources indicate.
The UK has 8 operating nuclear power stations.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
The UK has 11 retired nuclear power stations.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
All of the operating nuclear power stations in the UK will be retired by 2035 and decommissioned.
Therefore before 2050 all of the UK nuclear power stations will be decommissioned.
Model for New Stations
The new Hinkley Point nuclear power station would produce 3.2 GW of electricity.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_B_Nuclear_Power_Station
If the Hinkley Point can produce 3.2GW then it can deliver 3.2 x 6,866 GWh/yr 21,971GWh/yr
21.971 Twh/yr. If 50 Hinkley Point type power stations are constructed. This would produce 1098 TW/h/yr.
To construct 50, 3GW nuclear power stations delivering 1030 Twh/yr. 1,030,000 GWh/yr requires a new nuclear power station system for the UK.
Costs
A Hinkley Point nuclear power station could cost £18,000,000,000 to build.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/15/hinkley-point-c-guide-uk-first-new-nuclear-plant-for-20-years
Other sources indicate a cost of
£19,600,000,000 and £20,300,000,000 to build.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
Other sources indicate a cost of
£29,700,000,000 to build.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station
A Hinkley Point nuclear power station could generate 7% of UK electricity.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/sep/15/hinkley-point-c-guide-uk-first-new-nuclear-plant-for-20-years
Decommission and Dismantling Cost. Around $2600/kWe (£1976/kwh)
This; for Hinkley Point ; would equate to 3,200,000kw x £1976. £6,323,200,000
This would bring the total Hinkley Point cost for build decommission and dismantling to
£29,700,000,000 + £6,323,200,000 approx. £36,0232,000,000
Source: https://www.eia.gov/tools/glossary/index.php?id=k
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_decommissioning#Costs
If 50 Hinkley Point type power stations are constructed the cost for build decommission and dismantling would be £36,0232,000,000 x 50. £18,011,600,000,000
The cost of the new nuclear power generation system is £18,011,600,000,000 excluding operating costs and subsidies.
Timescale
A Hinkley Point power station would take 10 years to construct.
Source: https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c
50 Hinkley Point power station would take 50 years to construct.
This would allow for the full emissions and decarbonisation benefit for the UK to be available in approx. 2070.
The nuclear power generation system will not reach its necessary target until 2070. 20 years beyond the date needed.
Operating Lifespan
100 years per nuclear power station.
Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nuclear-power-plant-aging-reactor-replacement-/
World Uranium Resource Abundance.
There are 5,718,400 Known Recoverable Resources of Uranium 2015.
Source: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx
Lifespan of World Uranium Resource Abundance
The World resource of Uranium would allow 90 years of nuclear power at current operating levels. (2015)
Source: http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx
This would make the Nuclear Option for the UK viable from 2015 to 2105.
The nuclear power generation system will not be useable due to Uranium resource depletion after 2105. It has a maximum operating lifespan of 55 years from 2050.
Method 2: Offshore Wind
40,000 turbines are available in 2050 delivering 430 Twh/yr. 430,000 Gwh/yr
This achieves 28% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Wind Power in the UK
Wind power contributed 11% of UK electricity generation in 2015, and 17% in December 2015.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
There are 6,335 onshore wind turbines with a total generational capacity of 1,252 MW. 1.252 GW
There are 1,497 offshore wind turbines with a total generational capacity of 28 MW. 0.028 GW
Source: http://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome
This gives a total number of wind turbines of 7,832.
This gives an operational capacity of 16,154.910 MW 16 GWh/yr
The onshore is 80% of this amount 13 GWh/yr
The offshore is 20% of this amount 3 GWh/yr
This gives an energy produced of 42,596,620 MWh/yr 42,597 GWh/yr
The onshore is 80% of this amount 34,078 GWh/yr
The offshore is 20% of this amount 8,519 GWh/yr
Source: http://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome
Per total turbines this is 5.4 Gwh/yr per turbine.
Per onshore turbines 5.4 Gwh/yr per turbine.
Per offshore turbines 5.7 Gwh/yr per turbine.
40,000 offshore wind turbines would deliver 430 Twh/yr. 430,000 Gwh/yr
Per turbine this is 10.75 Gwh/yr
The majority of wind turbines are onshore.
The amount of energy generated from offshore wind turbines is variable.
The energy generated per turbine onshore and off shore averages out at 5.5 Gwh/yr
There are currently insufficient offshore wind turbines to meet the UK 2050 target for emissions reduction and decarbonisation.
To achieve the 430,000 Gwh/yr target the data suggests that the 40,000 wind turbine estimate would need to be doubled or a 50% efficiency increase in energy produced per turbine achieved.
The offshore wind turbine energy generation will produce intermittent energy for the UK and some form of battery storage will need to be installed to compensate for energy losses.
Costs
The cost of an offshore wind turbine varies with location.
Based on the London Array, Britain’s biggest wind farm, with 175 turbines at a cost of £160million allows for £914,285 per turbine.
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/windpower/10122850/True-cost-of-Britains-wind-farm-industry-revealed.html
Allowing approx. £1,000,000 per turbine.
To achieve the 430,000 Gwh/yr target the data suggests that the 40,000 wind turbine estimate would incur a cost of £1,000,000 x 40,000 = £40,000,000,000 for build costs excluding operating costs and subsidies.
Timescale
‘The planning and permitting phase can cost more than $10 million, take 5–7 years and have an uncertain outcome.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_wind_power
‘The length of time for installation of a wind turbine at sea depends on the location and the weather conditions. As a rule of thumb, installation takes about eight hours for each major component (tower, nacelle and rotor) making a total of approximately 24 hours.’
Source: Fact Sheet Industrialization of Offshore Logistics SEA INSTALLER – New Installation Vessel Status: January 2013
To achieve the 430,000 Gwh/yr target the data suggests that the 40,000 wind turbine estimate would take 7 years for planning and permissions and 55 years to install all of the wind turbines.
To install; 40,000 wind turbines less the existing 1,497 offshore turbines; 38,503, in the 33 years up to 2050 would require 4 turbines to be installed per day not 1 and maintain this rate of installation for 33 years.
Operating Lifespan
25 years per turbine.
Source: http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/43817/the-end-of-the-line-for-today-s-wind-turbines/
The 40,000 wind turbine estimate would need to allow all installed turbines to be replaced at a rate of 4 per day after 2050. If replacement starts 25 years after the first of the 40,000 turbines is installed then 36,500 would have been installed at this time. These would be replaced at a rate of 4 per day and all of them would be replaced in 25 years.
Replacement would have to be ongoing if supply of energy was to be maintained.
Method 3: Agriculture Industry and Services Output
Growth in Industrial Output Falls by 30% to 40% by 2050.
This achieves 23% emissions reductions by 2050.
This will affect the following in the UK.
2017 Labour Force
The UK Population in 2017 is 65,511,098
The labour force in the UK is estimated at 32,010,000 (May 2017)
This is an employment percentage of 49%
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
Source: Office for National Statistics (17 August 2016). "UK Labour Market: August 2016". Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 17 August 2016.
2017 Labour Force by Occupation.
There are 3 main sectors.
Agriculture: 1.5%, 480,150 people
Industry: 18.8%, 6,017,880 people
Services: 79.7% (2011 est.), 25,511,970 people
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
Source: Office for National Statistics. "Labour Force Survey Employment status by occupation, April – June 2011". Office for National Statistics. Retrieved 14 July 2013.
2017 Labour force by Gross Domestic Product percentage.
2017 GDP for UK £2,619,000,000,000 for 32,010,000 workforce. £81,818 per worker
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=GB
Agriculture 0.61%
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=GB
Industry 19.167%
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.TOTL.ZS?locations=GB
Services 80.223%
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.SRV.TETC.ZS?locations=GB
2050 Labour Force
The UK Population in 2050 is 77,000,000
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/uk-population-to-hit-70-million-ons-in-less-than-a-decade
The labour force in the UK is estimated at 23,080,810 people. 35% less than 2017.
This is an employment percentage of 30%
2050 Labour Force by Occupation.
There are 3 main sectors.
Agriculture: 1.5%, 480,150 people
Industry: 18.8%, 6,017,880 people
Services: 79.7% (2011 est.), 25,511,970 people less 35% 8,929,190 people.
2050 Labour force by Gross Domestic Product percentage.
2050 GDP for UK £3,837,520,016,400 for 23,080,810 workforce. £166,264 per worker.
Source: https://data.oecd.org/gdp/gdp-long-term-forecast.htm
Agriculture 0.61%
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS?locations=GB
Industry 19.167%
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.TOTL.ZS?locations=GB
Services 80.223% (less 35%) 45.223% of 2017 labour force in this sector.
Source: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.SRV.TETC.ZS?locations=GB
This would achieve a total workforce of 8,929,190 less employed in the UK by 2050 than in 2017.
The GDP of each worker has doubled.
The services sector is likely to be the sector with the largest reduction due to its reliance on other industries and agriculture to survive.
Detailed List of Industries
This is a list of industries taken from the source below for the UK in 2017.
This allows the effects of the emissions target and decarbonisation to be tracked to specific UK agriculture, industry, and services work areas.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_the_United_Kingdom
2017 Agriculture
Agriculture, Food and beverages, Restaurants, Bars and Public Houses.
2017 Industry
Automotive, Aerospace, Construction, Chemicals, Defence equipment, Electronics, Industrial equipment, Scientific equipment, Telecommunications, Transportation and Logistics, Utilities, Energy, Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology, Processed Metals and Consumer goods
2017 Services
Business and Professional services, Education, Entertainment, Financial services, Healthcare, Hospitality and leisure, Information technology, Media, Real estate, Retailing and Tourism.
Given the sectors percentage of 2017 GDP and the workforce percentage the services sector is the one most likely to undergo the largest change to allow for a reduction in emissions up to 2050.
The services affected in 2050 include Business and Professional services, Education, Entertainment, Financial services, Healthcare, Hospitality and leisure, Information technology, Media, Real estate, Retailing and Tourism.
The industrial sectors would also be affected since they have a reliance on fossil fuels and cannot easily adapt to new fuels.
The industrial area affected in 2050 include Automotive, Aerospace, Construction, Chemicals, Defence equipment, Electronics, Industrial equipment, Scientific equipment, Telecommunications, Transportation and logistics, Utilities, Energy, Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, Processed metals and Consumer goods
The Agricultural sectors would be able to remain at a need level and so are unchanged from 2017 to 2050 and up to 2100.
Method 4: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
510 Twh/yr from 50 to 90 CCS power stations. The gas plants are produced at a build rate equivalent to the 1990’s.
This achieves 22% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Globally.
There are globally 38 large-scale CCS projects – combined CO2 capture capacity of approximately 70 Mtpa. 21 projects in operation or construction (40.3 Mtpa). 6 projects in advanced planning (8.4 Mtpa)
11 projects in earlier stages of planning (21.1 Mtpa)
Source: November 2016 Global CCS Institute Publishes Global Status of CCS: 2016 Summary Report
Source: Source: IEA, 2016 Energy Technology Perspectives 2016: Towards Sustainable Urban Energy Systems. Paris. OECD/IEA.
Current Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in the UK.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a technology in the development stage.
‘In the UK, the Government continues to review and consider its policy position following the cancellation of the CCS Competition in November 2015. The UK Government has continued to affirm its interest in CCS. The findings of recent reviews into the role of CCS in the UK, including recommendations to support future deployment, may offer a timely and valuable contribution to the government’s future policy decisions.’
Source: November 2016 Global CCS Institute Publishes Global Status of CCS: 2016 Summary Report
Model for New CCS Stations
Unknown. Under development.
Costs
‘There are insufficient studies on the costs of industrial CCS, so cost estimates are highly uncertain, with the most expensive capture plants estimates ranging from £30 to £330/tCO2.’
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/carbon-capture-and-storage-ccs-costs-for-uk-industry-high-level-review
Converting 510 Twh/yr. to 5.1e+11Kwh/yr. to 358,415,760 tCO2
Source: https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator
At a cost of £330/tCO2. £330 x 358,415,760. £118,277,200,800 cost a CCS plant in the UK.
Excluding all operating, maintenance and subsidy costs.
50 to 90 CCS power stations. 90 x £118,277,200,800
Total capital cost for the capture plant programme.
Excluding all operating, maintenance and subsidy costs.
£10.6 trillion
Timescale
Unknown. Under development.
Operating Lifespan
Unknown. Under development.
Current Carbon Capture and Storage is a technology that will become unnecessary after fossil fuels stop being used for energy generation and are left in the ground and so do not add to emissions.
Method 5: Land Use
17% of land is dedicated to Bio Energy crops.
This achieves 12% emissions reductions by 2050.
This is possible given the 2017, 2050, 2100 UK agricultural land area available to feed the increasing population.
The most likely biofuel is Ethanol produced from sugar cane.
Of the crops used to produce Ethanol Sugar Cane is the best for annual yield and GHG; greenhouse gas savings; and embodied energy input to output ratio.
Increasing the percentage of land devoted to Biofuels to produce enough Ethanol to meet the levels of current Petroleum product consumption is not viable.
Since Ethanol requires 1.5 times the volume to produce the same energy as petroleum then
Biofuels must be used at a lower consumption level than currently used for petroleum.
Method 6: Imported Bio Energy
Up to 280 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy is achieved by 2050.
This achieves 9% emissions reductions by 2050.
Increasing the percentage of land devoted to Biofuels to produce enough Ethanol to meet the levels of current Petroleum product consumption is not viable.
The amount of Petroleum products must be reduced to ensure enough land remains for food production for increasing populations.
The number of people involved in the petroleum industry will decline up to 2050.
The number of people employed indirectly by being connected to petroleum products will decline up to 2050.
The numbers of aircraft, ships, boats, consumer products based on petroleum will also decline up to 2050.
If the number of transport systems decreases the ability to import goods, services, energy and fuels will reduce.
Therefore importation of biofuels will become less possible as the century progresses.
Method 7: Geo sequestration
CO2 sequestration rate of 110,000,000 tons / yr is achieved by 2050.
This achieves 8% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Geo sequestration is a technology that will become unnecessary after fossil fuels stop being used for energy generation. Fossil fuels will simply be left in the ground and not mined or extracted to achieve the 110,000,000 tons / yr by 2050.
Method 8: Onshore Wind
20,000 turbines are available in 2050 delivering 130 Twh/yr. 130,000 GWh/yr
This achieves 7% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Wind Power in the UK
Wind power contributed 11% of UK electricity generation in 2015, and 17% in December 2015.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_the_United_Kingdom
There are 6,335 onshore wind turbines with a total generational capacity of 1,252 MW. 1.252 GW
There are 1,497 offshore wind turbines with a total generational capacity of 28 MW. 0.028 GW
Source: http://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome
This gives a total number of wind turbines of 7,832.
This gives an operational capacity of 16,154.910 MW 16 GWh/yr
The onshore is 80% of this amount 13 GWh/yr
The offshore is 20% of this amount 3 GWh/yr
This gives an energy produced of 42,596,620 MWh/yr 42,597 GWh/yr
The onshore is 80% of this amount 34,078 GWh/yr
The offshore is 20% of this amount 8,519 GWh/yr
Source: http://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDhome
Per total turbine this is 5.4 Gwh/yr
Per onshore turbine 5.4 Gwh/yr
Per offshore turbine 5.7 Gwh/yr
20,000 turbines are available in 2050 delivering 130 Twh/yr. 130,000 GWh/yr
Per turbine this is 6.5 Gwh/yr
The majority of wind turbines are onshore.
The amount of energy generated from onshore wind turbines is variable.
The energy generated per turbine onshore and offshore averages out at 5.5 Gwh/yr
There are currently insufficient onshore wind turbines to meet the UK 2050 target for emissions reduction and decarbonisation.
To achieve the 130,000 Gwh/yr target the data suggests that the 20,000 wind turbine estimate would need to be increased or an increased efficiency in energy produced per turbine achieved.
The onshore wind turbine energy generation will produce intermittent energy for the UK and some form of battery storage will need to be installed to compensate for energy losses.
Costs
The cost of an onshore wind turbine varies with location.
Based on the London Array, Britain’s biggest wind farm, with 175 turbines at a cost of £160million allows for £914,285 per turbine.
Source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/windpower/10122850/True-cost-of-Britains-wind-farm-industry-revealed.html
Allowing approx. £1,000,000 per turbine.
To achieve the 130,000 GWh/yr target the data suggests that the 20,000 wind turbine estimate would incur a cost of £1,000,000 x 40,000 = £20,000,000,000 for build costs excluding operating costs and subsidies.
Timescale
‘The planning and permitting phase can cost more than $10 million, take 5–7 years and have an uncertain outcome.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offshore_wind_power
‘The length of time for installation of a wind turbine depends on the location and the weather conditions. As a rule of thumb, installation takes about eight hours for each major component (tower, nacelle and rotor) making a total of approximately 24 hours.’
Source: Fact Sheet Industrialization of Offshore Logistics SEA INSTALLER – New Installation Vessel Status: January 2013
To achieve the 130,000 Gwh/yr target the data suggests that the 20,000 wind turbine estimate would take 7 years for planning and permissions and 55 years to install all of the wind turbines.
To install; 20,000 wind turbines less the existing 6,335 onshore turbines; 13,665, in the 33 years up to 2050 would require 2 turbines to be installed per day not 1 and maintain this rate of installation for 33 years.
Operating Lifespan
25 years per turbine.
Source: http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/43817/the-end-of-the-line-for-today-s-wind-turbines/
The 20,000 wind turbine estimate would need to allow all installed turbines to be replaced at a rate of 2 per day after 2050. If replacement starts 25 years after the first of the 20,000 turbines is installed then 18,250 would have been installed at this time. These would be replaced at a rate of 2 per day and all of them would be replaced in 25 years.
Replacement would have to be ongoing if supply of energy was to be maintained.
Method 9: Solar Photovoltaic (PV)
Solar photovoltaic panels are used for electricity.
9.5m2 of pv for every person in the UK.
All suitable and roof spaces used.
This achieves 7% emissions reductions by 2050.
Current Solar Photovoltaic (PV) in the UK.
Allowing for a population in 2050 projected to be 77,000,000.
Allowing for 28,100,000 residential properties in 2014.
Source: http://visual.ons.gov.uk/uk-perspectives-2016-housing-and-home-ownership-in-the-uk/#footnote_1
Allowing 2 people per dwelling.
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/families/bulletins/familiesandhouseholds/2016
Allowing for the 2050 energy consumption of 4 kWh per person per day.
Allows for 8kWh per day for each dwelling.
Allows for a consumption rate of 8 x 28,100,000 kWh.
This requires 224,800,000 kWh total solar pv installation for the UK.
The smallest solar p.v. array is typically 6 panels (2 x 3). 9.6m2. Generating 1.3kW.
The proposed 9.5m2 array does not achieve the energy consumption required for the 2050 UK population.
To achieve the 4kw required consumption per person; allowing for no fossil fuel input; would require
18 panels covering an area of 28.8m2. The roof area of the average detached house.
Source: http://www.pvfitcalculator.energysavingtrust.org.uk/Documents/150224_SolarEnergy_Calculator_Sizing_Guide_v1.pdf
This would not give each person 4kWh/day but would give 2 people access to an energy source of 4kWh/day.
The proposed 9.5m2 array is inadequate in area for the energy consumption of each dwelling and needs to be increased to 28.8 m2 to give 4kW of energy available to each person in the dwelling.
If the 9.5m2 panel were deployed across the UK energy would be available to all persons in all locations.
The solar p.v. energy generation will produce intermittent energy for the UK and some form of battery storage will need to be installed to compensate for energy losses.
Costs
If the solar p.v. panels were manufactured in the UK the cost of a solar p.v plant would have to be allowed for.
Manufacture.
A 50MW, 5,000 sqm, solar panel plant capital cost £31,545,741
Source: http://www.solar-facts-and-advice.com/monocrystalline.html
Output
Allowing an output of 50,000 photovoltaic panel output per plant / year requirement
Allowing for a total requirement of;18 panels per dwelling x 28,100,000 dwellings; 505,800,000 panels.
Over the 33 years from 2017 to 2050 a single plant could produce 33 x 50,000 panels. 1,650,000 panels.
To produce all of the solar p.v panels at the same rate would take 505,800,000 / 1,650,000. 306 plants.
Total Capital
306 solar p.v. plants x £31,545,741
£9,652,996,746 capital and interest investment excluding ongoing material, labour, transport, energy costs for all the solar p.v plants to be built.
Installation
Allowing a cost per dwelling of £200 per panel x 18. £3600 per dwelling x 28,100,000 dwellings.
£101,160,000,000
Batteries
1110 kwh/yr. 4kwh/day / 4000 watts/day / 12v /250Ah/day
500Ah/day storage allowance. 5/110Ah batteries trickle charged in parallel.
£150 x 5 = per dwelling. £750 per dwelling. £750 x 28,100,000 dwellings.
£2,107,5000,000
Inverters, Diodes, Controls, Wiring.
10% allowance.
£2,107,500,000
Total Cost for UK solar p.v installation. £134,027,042,487
Source: https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles/home/article-028---The Cost of Solar Energy
Timescale to Install
33 years including manufacturing time. 2332 properties will need have solar p.v installed each day to achieve the emissions and decarbonisation level by 2050.
Lifespan per solar pv array
Allowing for the deterioration of electrical systems, diodes, inverters, batteries. 12 years from installation.
Photovoltaic panels are not a totally inexhaustible energy solution if applied to the climate of the UK.
There is a massive shortfall in the needed speed of extraction, manufacture, installation and use of photovoltaic’s globally to meet population increases.
Current photovoltaics are moving over to film production photovoltaics to shorten the production time, energy and materials used in an attempt to reduce costs and increase sales. The use of aluminium frames has been curtailed in favour of a bonded photovoltaic system. This frameless approach needs no development costs unlike the paint on film process and so has been more successful.
Photovoltaics are dependent on imports and exports.
Imports and exports will reduce as fossil fuels deplete making the installation of photovoltaics less possible.
Photovoltaics require a massive capital investment. They do not create strong independent economies.
Photovoltaics will not independently meet the required global demand in 2050 as an alternative energy source.
The more manufacturing of photovoltaic’s is increased the more fossil fuels will need to be used in the extraction, manufacture, installation and use of them.
The amount of fossil fuel use currently exceeds the potential of photovoltaics as an energy source.
Photovoltaic’s use fossil fuel reserves and so are not a clean energy system.
Photovoltaic’s are not easily installed or retrofitted on existing property due to local climate, weather, service suitability, and orientation of buildings.
Solar P.V. energy should be backed up by passive systems, requiring only the correct design, materials and placing of openings in a dwelling or workplace.
Photovoltaics are however a necessary step in energy generation if a renewable economy is to be constructed.
Method 10: Electricity Imports
140 Twh/yr imported from the UK 20% share of the International dessert solar project.
This achieves 7% emissions reductions by 2050.
The International dessert solar project was abandoned in 2013.
However solar p.v. power from more local sources could be obtained to add to the 7% emission reduction from this item.
Source: http://www.euractiv.com/section/trade-society/news/desertec-abandons-sahara-solar-power-export-dream/
Source: https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/7558-Desertec-s-plan-for-Saharan-sun-to-power-Europe-burns-out
Source: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600751/moroccos-massive-desert-solar-project-starts-up/
Conclusions
The population of the UK is increasing.
There is sufficient environment to house the increasing population in the UK.
There are sufficient food resources to feed the increasing population in the UK.
There are decreasing water resources for an increasing population in the UK.
The energy generation system of the UK has been based; 71.1%; on fossil fuels.
Fossil fuel energy generation is being phased out by 34% by 2020 and by 80% by 2050.
The UK needs a completely new energy generation system for its increasing population.
Climate Change is occurring at the moment.
The UK will have to comply with their International Climate Control Agreements.
By the year 2050 the UK needs to dramatically change the way it produces and consumes energy.
Government targets require greenhouse gas emissions to reduce to 20% of 1990 levels.
The UK is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050, relative to 1990 levels.
To do this we must decarbonise the UK economy while ensuring secure and affordable energy supplies.
The Feasible and Non-Feasible Key Methods to Decarbonise the UK Economy are
Feasible:
Offshore Wind 28%, Growth in Industrial Output Falls by 30% to 40% by 2050 23%, 17% of land is dedicated to Bio Energy crops. 12%, Onshore Wind. 7%,Solar Photovoltaic (PV) 7%,
Total: 77%.
Not feasible:
Nuclear. 29%,Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) 22%, Imported Bio Energy. 9%, Geo sequestration
8%, Electricity Imports. 7%
Total: 75%
By increasing the percentages of the feasible forms of renewable energy 80% emissions reduction can be achieved. This can be supplemented by omitting the non-feasible energy sources and so gain environment, resources, energy, finance and time to add to the renewable ability of the UK.
Ian K Whittake
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
05/08/2017
14/10/2020
5154 words over 13 pages