Architectural Change. The UK Pre-Brexit 2017 and Post Brexit 2019 to 2100.
Theory
The UK will have to evolve from a linear economy into a circular economy after Brexit to allow for
four issues.
Its new internalised economic status.
Adaptation to climate change.
The end of a fossil fuel based economy.
Ongoing environment, resource and energy depletion up to the year 2100.
Definitions
In the scope of this essay the following definitions apply.
Linear Economy
‘Linear "take, make, dispose" industrial processes and the lifestyles that feed on them deplete finite reserves to create products that end up in landfills or in incinerators.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_from_the_linear_model
Circular Economy
‘A circular economy is a regenerative system in which resource input and waste, emission, and energy leakage are minimised by slowing, closing, and narrowing material and energy loops. This can be achieved through long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and recycling. This is in contrast to a linear economy which is a 'take, make, dispose' model of production.’
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_economy#Moving_away_fr
Method
This essay establishes the current nature of the UK in terms of its Population, Population Increase, Dependency on Fossil Fuels, UK National Government Structure, UK Local Government Structure, UK Total Public Debt, UK Total Public Revenue (Taxes) per capita, Total Revenues, Repayment of Public Debt, Remaining Finances to run the UK, Total Government Spending for 2016, England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland per capita Spending on Health Care, Education, Defence and Welfare.
Conclusions are then drawn.
Population
In 2017 the UK population is estimated at 65,511,098 and 65,640,100 people
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom
Source: www.UKometers.info/UK-population/uk-population/
The UK Population by 2050 is projected to be 77,000,000
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/mar/03/uk-population-to-hit-70-million-ons-in-less-than-a-decade
The UK Population by 2100 is projected to be 91,227,569
Source:https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/tablea11principalprojectionuksummary
The increase in population between 2017 and 2050 is 18% approx. 11,488,902 people.
The increase in population between 2050 and 2100 is 18.5% approx. 14,227,569 people.
Dependency On Fossil Fuels.
The UK generates 55.6% of total installed capacity using fossil fuels.
Source: CIA Worlld Factbook 2017 (2015 est).
Electricity; from other renewable sources; accounts for 33.4% of total installed capacity.
Source: CIA Worlld Factbook 2017 (2015 est).
Therefore only 50% of the UK energy generation and 1/3rd of the UK economy can currently survive the end of fossil fuels and the depletion in environment, resources and energy predicted to occur between the years 2030 to 2050.
UK National Government Structure
National Government includes 650 MP’s, approx.1 MP per 100,985 people at1 MP per each constituency.
Each MP, working on a standard 48 hour week, 8 hour day, having to see 100,985 people in a year, is able to allow them each 1.5 minutes of time.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Commons_of_the_United_Kingdom
UK Local Government Structure
This is made up of
418 Principal authorities in the UK
27 County councils
55 Unitary authorities
32 London boroughs
36 Metropolitan boroughs
201 District councils
32 Scottish unitary authorities
22 Welsh unitary authorities
11 Northern Ireland councils
Parish and town councils have been excluded.
This allows for 20,811 councillors.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_make-up_of_local_councils_in_the_United_Kingdom
This totals to 834 organizations, approx. 1 local council per 78,705 people.
Each Council, working on a standard 48 hour week, 8 hour day, having to see 78,705 people in a year, is able to allow them each 2.5 minutes of time.
In terms of the 20,811 local councillors. This equates to approx.1 local councilor per 3,154 people.
Each Councilor, working on a standard 48 hour week, 8 hour day, having to see 3,154 people in a year, would be able to allow them each 47.48 minutes of time.
UK Total Public Debt
Allowing for Public Debt = Public Expenditure – Public Revenues.
The total net Public Debt of the UK is £1,560,000,000,000.
The interest on this is £43,000,000,000
Total for 1 year the capital and interest equate to £1,603,000,000,000.
This; in the linear economy model is not considered debt; it is considered money already invested in the economy that will generate money allowing the investment / debt to be paid back over a long time period.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_national_debt
Approx. £24,421 per person
Source: UK Public Spending.co.uk UK Central Government and Local Authority Public Spending 2016 - Pie Charts Tables
UK Total Public Revenue (Taxes) Per Capita
This is made up of
Income and Capital Taxes £ 3,704 / person
National Insurance + £1,985 / person
Indirect Taxes + £4,345 / person
Fees and Charges + £0 / person
Business and Other Revenue + £664 / person
This allows for a Total Direct Revenue of £10,698 / person
Source: https://www.ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/numbers?units=d
Total Revenues
The total metal and paper money in circulation. M0 and M1 money for 2017 was £1,785,371,000,000
Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/money-supply-m1
The total of £1,785,371,000,000 has within it the tax revenue that is paid back to the exchequer by the population.
This can be calculated as 65,640,100 x £10,698 / person, approx. £702,217,789,800
Source: https://www.ukpublicrevenue.co.uk/numbers?units=d
Repayment of Public Debt
The Public Debt can be reduced therefore by £1,603,000,000,000 - £702,217,789,800 to approx. £900,782,210,200 approx. £13,723 per person merely by using the tax revenues.
Remaining Finances to run the UK
The actual revenue remaining should now be able to be calculated.
£1,603,000,000,000 less the amount returned as taxes and used to pay off debt, £702,217,789,800 leaving a remaining revenue of £900,782,210,200 to run the country for a year.
This amount includes the existing Public Debt which is considered as investment in the economy.
The remaining revenue of £900,782,210,200 as revenue to run the country for a year amounts to approx. £13,723 per person in the UK.
This is above the UK Total Public Revenue Taxes per capita of £10,698 for the year.
In the ‘linear’ economy the UK is therefore considered to be permanently moving towards a solvent situation by maintaining a revenue surplus; including debt as previous investment; above the tax collected to allow for constant investment.
The current linear economy is therefore debt / investment financed since the total public debt / investment per person is higher than the per person amount of tax revenue.
The linear economy runs on an increasing population being able to produce more products and maintain a higher money flow if constant investment is maintained.
However the linear economy with an increasing population must also allow for more debt / investment to be obtained to pay for more public services for more people.
The linear economy is therefore dependant on infinite investment. This equates not only to money but also to environment, resources and energy. This form of investment will not be available in the future.
Total Government Spending for 2017
Having established the amount of money available, £1,785,371,000,000, the government budget can be established for the year.
The Total Spending for 2017 has been projected as £780,300,000,000 which is less than the revenue in circulation of £1,785,371,000,000 allowing a surplus of £1,005,071,000,000.
The spending on each area of the economy can also be established.
Pensions £156,100,000
Health Care £144,300,000,000
Education £87.200,000,000
Defence £44,700,000,000
Welfare £56,900,000,000
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2017UKbn_17bc1n_40#ukgs302
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2017UKbn_17bc1n#ukgs302
The same process can be taken to a country level.
England Population
Total Spending £483,000,000,000
Population (2011 census) 53,010,000
Spending per capita £9,111
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2016ENbn_17bc1n#ukgs302
Source: Google Search
Source: Public Expenditure by Country and Region www. parliament.co.uk
There are 533 England constituency MP’s, approx.1 MP per 99,456 people at 1 MP per constituency. Each MP, working on a standard, 48 hour week, 8 hour day, having to see 99,456 people in a year, would be able to allow them each 1.5 minutes of time.
Wales Population
Total Spending £31,000,000,000
Population (2011 census) 3,063,000
Spending per Capita £10,120
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2016WAbn_17bc1n#ukgs302
Source: Google Search
Source: Public Expenditure by Country and Region www. parliament.co.uk
There are 40 Wales constituency MP’s, approx.1 MP per 76,575 people at 1 MP per constituency.
Each MP, working on a standard, 8 hour day, having to see 76,575 people in a year, would be able to allow them each 2.5 minutes of time.
Scotland Population
Total Spending £56,600,000,000
Population (2011 census) 5,295,000
Spending per Capita £10,689
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2016WAbn_17bc1n#ukgs302
Source: Google Search
Source: Public Expenditure by Country and Region www. parliament.co.uk
There are 59 Scotland constituency MP’s, approx.1 MP per 89,745 people at 1 MP per constituency. Each MP, working on a standard, 8 hour day, having to see 89,745 people in a year, would be able to allow them each 2 minutes of time.
Northern Ireland Population
Total Spending £20,300,000,000
Population (2011 census) 1,811,000
Spending per Capita £11,209
Source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/year_spending_2016NIbn_17bc1n#ukgs302
Source: Google Search
Source: Public Expenditure by Country and Region www. parliament.co.uk
There are 18 Ireland constituency MP’s, approx.1 MP per 100,611people at 1 MP per constituency. Each MP, working on a standard, 8 hour day, having to see 100,611 people in a year, would be able to allow them each 1.5 minutes of time.
Conclusions
Population and Population Growth
The population of the UK has been increasing and is predicted to increase by approx. 18% between 2017 and 2050 and 18.5% between 2050 and 2100.
This using a linear economy requires infinite investment to pay for more public services.
This type of investment will not be available in the future depletion economy.
Dependency on Fossil Fuels
Only 50% of the UK energy generation and 1/3rd of the UK economy can currently survive the end of fossil fuels and the depletion in environment, resources and energy predicted to occur between the years 2030 to 2050.
This is inadequate for the size of population predicted to occur.
UK National and Local Government Structure Communcation Ability.
Due to the population numbers each MP can only spend about 1.5 minutes with each of their constituents per year to assist in solving any problems they may have.
Due to the population numbers each Local Council can only spend about 2.5 minutes with each of their constituents per year to assist in solving any problems they may have.
This is repeated at a country scale.
Each Local Councillor can spend about 47.48 minutes with each of their constituents per year to assist in solving any problems they may have.
Of the tiers of government these figures would suggest that most of the constituent problems have to be solved at a lower level of the state government or solved over extended periods of time trying to get meetings with the higher levels of authority in the UK.
This is inefficient in any high population, high communication density state.
Therefore the political structure of the UK will have to change.
UK Total Public Debt / Investment
The Public Debt amounts to approx. £24,421 per person in the UK.
This; in the linear economy is not considered debt; it is considered money already invested in the economy that will generate money allowing the investors to be paid back over a long time period.
It does however depend on maintaining its value against infinite capital, environment, resources and energy.
This in the next century will cease to be the case as global energy, resource and energy depletion occurs.
The Public Debt is reduced after taxes to approx. £13,723 per person in the UK.
This is not considered as debt per capita but invested money per capita waiting to create potential new income.
The Total Direct Revenue Taxes amounts to approx. £10,698 per person in the UK.
This is the money paid in wages by each business to its employees.
It also includes a share of the total UK debt; previous investment; of the UK.
The spending per capita in each country ranges between £9,111 in England to £11,209 in Northern Ireland.
The issues with the UK linear economic model are reflected at a country wide level within the UK.
The linear economy of the UK is dependent on infinite environment, resources and energy which will not be the case in the future.
The Current Status of the UK
In terms of revenue available from each person in the UK is very limited.
In terms of revenue available for each person the UK is very limited.
The current 'linear' economy of the UK is not adequate for the future population or environment, resource and energy depletion that will occur up to the year 2100.
The UK needs a 'circular' economy.
The current communication interaction between national and local government and an increasing population of the UK in an ever increasing density of communications is inefficient.
Therefore the political structure of the UK will have to change.
The Future Status of the UK
The UK must change its economy post Brexit to a completely new 'circular' form of economic model based on its internal environment, resources and energy capability as an isolated nation.
The isolation will increase as fossil fuels are phased out and access to global resources reduces.
The import / export economy must become a 'circular' internal economy, communications system, revenue stream, spending stream and debt repayment stream.
The linear strategy of 'take, make and dispose', must be replaced with the ongoing 'circular' reviewed strategy of 'long-lasting design, maintenance, repair, reuse, remanufacturing, refurbishing, and recycling.'
This ideology has to permeate not only design, production and manufacturing it must also restructure the whole political, economic and social nature of the UK
The UK must prepare for increased communication between the population and the government at all levels, reducing employment, reducing environmental use, reducing resource use, reducing energy use, reducing revenue, reducing money circulation, reducing investment and reducing government spending per head of the population until it reaches a political, social and economic level where all resources are identified, maintained and recycled.
Ian K Whittaker
Websites:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
08/01/2018
14/10/2020
2257 words over 6 pages