The Future for Batteries up to 2050
If energy levels are reduced by a global reduction in the allowed use of fossil fuels then will the use of batteries in Britain survive up to 2050.
This analysis gives an ongoing framework to test that question.
The number of batteries use in a 3 Bedroom, 4 Person 2 storey house in Britain can be assessed
Household items Number of Batteries Type Total
Primary Batteries - Non Rechargeable
doorbell 4 AA 4
clock 2 AA 2
torch 3 AA 2
radio 2 AA 2
smoke alarms 4 AA 4
cd player 4 AA 4
calculators 4 AA 4
toys 8 AA 8
tv remote 6 AA 6
clocks 6 AA 6
Total 42
Per household this equates to
= Total cost at £1 for a pack of 10
= £4.20
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 0.000966 metric tons of materials of primary type batteries in any house in Britain.
Allowing for replacement of the primary type of batteries per household
= 10 batteries per month replaced
= 120/yr
= £1 per pack of 10
= £12 in the first year of use
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 0.00023 metric tons of materials of primary type batteries in any house in Britain
Total Cost per year per household
= £4.20 + £12 = £14.20
In relation to the whole of Britain
This would equate to the total number of houses as
= 26,800,000 x 42
= 1,125,600,000 primary type batteries at any time in Britain.
= Total cost at £1 for a pack of 10
= £112,560,000
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 25,888 metric tons of materials of primary type batteries at any time in Britain.
= 26,800,000 x 120
= 3,216,000,000 primary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain.
= Total cost at £1 for a pack of 10
= £321,600,000
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 73,968 metric tons of materials of primary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain.
Total Cost per year for every house in Britain
= £112,560,000 + £321,600,000 = £434,160,000
Primary Battery Production Rate
This equates to a production rate for the whole country of
= 3,216,000,000 primary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain
= 3,216,000,000 / 365 / 24
= 367,123 per hour.
This can be compared to other production rates
Cars can be produced at 500,000 per year = 57 per hour approx. 60 per hour.
Source: Nissan and Financial Times 2013
Bread can be produced at 12,000 loaves per hour.
Source: http://www.foodprocessing-technology.com/projects/warburtons-supe
Secondary Batteries - Rechargeable
Per household to replace all primary batteries with rechargeable
= 42 + 8 spare = 50
= £1 for a pack of 2
= £25
= £2 for charger
= £27 total replacement cost
Allowing for charging and replacement of the primary type of batteries per household
To charge an secondary battery
= 0.02 kWh / battery
= for 50 batteries
= 50 x 0.02 kWh
= 1 kWh / yr
= 0.17p/day standing charge
= 365 x 0.17p
= £62.05 /yr
= 0.15p /kwh incl vat.
= 0. 15p x 0.02 kWh
= 0.03p x 1 kWh/yr
= 0.03p /yr
Allowing for replacement of the secondary type of batteries per household
Cycle durability of an AA cell 500–1,000 cycles
1 use per day
= 500 to 1000 days
= 2 years 4 months
= 2.5 years
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel%E2%80%93metal_hydride_battery
= 50 batteries replaced every 2.5 years
= £1 for a pack of 2
= £25
= £25 total replacement cost every 2.5 years
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 0.00115 metric tons of materials of secondary type batteries for any house in Britain every 2.5 years.
Total Cost per year for one household
= £62.05 + £0.03 = £62.08
= £25 Total Cost every 2.5 years
In relation to the whole of Britain
= 26,800,000 x £62.08
= 26,800,000 x £25
= £1,663,744,000 Total Cost per year for all households in Britain
= £670,000,000 Total Cost every 2.5 years
= 26,800,000 x 50
= 1,340,000,000 secondary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain.
= Total cost at £1 for a pack of 2
= £670,000,000
= Allowing 23g per battery
= 30,820 metric tons of materials of primary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain.
Secondary Battery Production Rate
This equates to a production rate for the whole country of
1,340,000,000 secondary type batteries replaced at any time in Britain
= 1,340,000,000 / 365 / 24
= 152,968 per hour.
Other Batteries
Longer term secondary rechargeable batteries add to the cost of the electricity rate for each property and so secondary batteries cost.
These secondary batteries are used in
computers 4 LI-ion 4
mobile phones 4 LI-ion 4
Cars 2 Lead acid 2
Caravan 2 Lead acid 2
Total 12
Primary and Secondary Rechargeable batteries can be compared by there type in several categories from the best to the worst performance.
Cycle Life
lithium ion, sodium sulphur, nickel cadmium, nickel metal hydride, lead acid, primary batteries
Energy Output in Use
sodium sulphur, lithium ion, nickel metal hydride, nickel cadmium, lead acid, primary batteries
Cradle to Gate Energy CTG resource extraction, production, shipping energy
nickel metal hydride, sodium sulphur, lithium ion, nickel cadmium, lead acid, primary batteries
Recycling Energy
sodium sulphur, nickel metal hydride, nickel cadmium, lithium ion, lead acid, primary batteries
CO2 Emission
sodium sulphur, nickel metal hydride, lithium ion, nickel cadmium, lead acid, primary batteries
Conclusion
Primary batteries are assembled from materials gathered from all over the planet. From United States of America, Japan, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, Switzerland, South America and the Netherlands.
Consequently the primary battery is totally dependant on fossil fuels as energy to allow element extraction, transportation, production, shipping to wholesalers, shipping to retailers, and purchasing by public.
The primary battery can be recycled but this needs more fossil fuel energy.
The primary battery type has the largest environmental consequence.
The primary battery type is however currently easily and cheaply available and likely to be available up to 2015.
It will take 4 years for the rechargeable secondary battery and charger to pay back their initial costs.
It is however likely that this will be an even longer period of time since the standing charge costs for the mains electrical system will continue to rise per year.
Longer term rechargeables used in and around the home will also add to the cost of the electricity rate for each property and so increase the payback time for secondary batteries.
In the short term, up to 2015 and the climate agreements that will fix our energy future to a reduction in fossil fuels, primary batteries will be the most cost effective means of powering a household device.
The analysis also raises the effectiveness of the national electrical grid compared to battery storage.
The national grid is 75 to 100 years old. It is being constantly upgraded to cope with energy demands.
The national grid creates energy, distributes it, looses some of it in distribution and then does not store it at the point of energy need.
The national grid does not have an individual isolation system that the occupants of the houses can activate to reduce standing charge, energy use and costs.
The national grid generation capacity is going to be reduced by 34% by 2020 and 80% by 2050 to comply with Climate Change Agreements in relation to the use of fossil fuels.
This energy depletion will cause the public to have to switch over to a rechargeable battery system by 2015 since neither the national grid energy nor the primary battery product energy will be available to purchase at the same quantity or price, so energy must be created and stored by the general public for themselves.
Therefore between 2015 and 2050 each electrical device the public use must become individually powered by renewables; such as solar; and the collected energy stored in secondary rechargeable batteries to reduce overall manufacturing costs, energy, resource use and environment depletion.
The future of energy generation is renewable generation by the individual for the individual and stored by the individual without the state being involved.
Ian K Whittaker
Website:
https://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticles
Email: iankwhittaker@gmail.com
19/10/2013
14/10/2020
1382 words over 5 pages.