LUSI MUD VOLCANO AT THE 4 YEAR ANNIVERSARY, STARTING WITH THE REST CALM AND PEACE (DORMANT), BUT STILL CONTINUE DANCING ‘SERIMPI’:

The brief notes from Hardi Prasetyo (Enlightenment on the anniversary 4 years LUSI)

LUSI at the age of 4 years, has been started to go on the rest period (dormant period) from their previous moments of extreme events, but he was still dancing of the Serimpi (the Javanese dance typically with a slow and harmony motion).

LUSI now starting to show fairly the fundamental changed, that is to stage a break from the development of a mud volcano. In previous times since its birth their activity is very extreme. Eruption has been characterized by relatively low (flow rate ~ 15 000 m3/day), compared with the previous highest ever reach 170,000 m3/day, an average of 100 000 m3/ day. Eruption mainly water vapor still interspersed with mud kick. The resulting material particularly hot water with a little mud.

The Earth Scientists agree that the characteristics Lusi could be analogous to the existence of mud volcano that has become dormant, ie Bleduk Kuwu. That existed in the Central Java.

A new fact on the field (impacted area) that lasted since the beginning of 2010, has shown that water and mud colloidal flow rate of the Lusi dropped slightly. This was also accompanied by a decrease of subsidence rate. Resulting in a change from previous Lusi posture with positive growth (in the form of a type of mud volcano cone), has become the current negative growth (forming a sloping dome), and propagates laterally and radials.

Morphology of the Lusi mud volcano that is naturally controlled by the power from the Earth interior, is also in harmony influenced by human activities (anthropogenic), in an effort that mudflow that has been in the earth's surface can be controlled.

This work is done with the construction of embankments and retaining mud that currently it has been more coherent for flowing to the Porong River, for further transfer to the final resting place in the Madura Strait.

Because the solid material derived from the unit Lusi mud from Kalibeng Formation, a sedimentary origin of the Paleo Madura Strait, the Lusi has been driven home to the place he was born millions of years ago.

On May 31, 2010 or 2 days after the 4th her birthday, flow rate is relatively small bursts of ~ 10 000 m3/day. but the facts on the ground indicate that the Lusi continued to dance Serimpi (Javanese dance that resembles a ballet) that moves slowly with a certain pattern.

On May 7, 2010 when I was doing the monitoring on the ground (before the script was written), in south-west of the main eruption, has re-emerged a new eruption (the eruption double).

The process of birth and growth of hour after hour, day after day have been followed closely. Has evolved from the starting point begins with a bubble (bubble), developed into a spot kick mud eruption is accompanied by a 'geyser' without a shot of steam, continues with eruption accompanied by eruption of white steam, surge of mud with little intensity.

However, the duration of the life of the second eruption was only a few days, finally entered the dormant stage and the subsequent dead faint.

No errors of statement which was submitted by geologists from around the world that this phenomena may only exist in world, even in Azerbaijan, though (the most rich the mud volcano in the world). That we can follow the processes of birth, grow, develop, rest (dormant) and eventually die, of a natural mud volcano.

So LUSI MUD VOLCANO becomes difficult to look for match in other parts of the world.

When this has been further crystallized views of geologists in foreign countries, not to pursue (universally accepted), that Lusi is a geological phenomenon which is Mud Volcano, which evolved from thousands of others around the world.

This phenomenon is very typical is a process of pressurized mud remobilizes of material excess (over pressure) comes from the Earth interior to the surface of the earth.

Since its birth the more debated by the Earth scientists Worldwide about causing and triggering of the LUSI mud volcano. However, in general have been grouped into two large. That is a man-made mud volcano, which has been triggered by exploratory drilling activity, or a natural-mud volcano triggered by the earthquake in Yogyakarta that reactivate Watukosek Fault System.

Experience the history of Earth Sciences of the controversy is already a commonplace. Being an inspiration and innovation for the world university as a base to learn for find an understanding that is considered acceptable at that time.

As a good example, can be learned from the arrival of a theory of 'plate tectonics'. At first obtain the opinion of rival hypotheses of the 'Geosyncline', which was rooted in previous decades.

Where in the course of time (about ten years) with the acquisition of new evidence is more convincing, finally universally accepted one of them (or combination of them).

In this example the end without any voting process, the theory of plate tectonics was accepted by the experts to explain the controlling mechanism of our the Earth origin and the new world of tectonic processes (new global tectonics) which is still continuing, in the evolution of growth and development of Planet Earth.

These include the formation mechanism of natural resources that can not be updated (non-renewable resources) and the occurrence of natural disasters / geologic (natural / geological hazard) such as earthquake / tsunami, volcanic eruptions, avalanches, and mud volcano.

In the above phenomenon does not exist geologist who was winning or losing, it all take place naturally, and scientifically, although requiring a long time (tens of years).

In terms of disaster, Lusi mud volcano on May 31, 2010 has been more convincingly entered a new paradigm of life and development stage.

Where in the absence of a fundamental change, then geologic hazards (geohazard) that possibility directly caused of Lupsi eruption that have relatively smaller.

Similarly, a relatively small flow rate (type Bleduk Kuwu) then the potential threat of an immediate of primary of hot mud eruption also decreased.

In this connection special attention is still the potential to cause immediate danger is from the incident breached dike, mainly triggered by the accumulation of water comes from the extreme rain

The experience of past years shows that usually Mud Mix and difficult to move freely, except for watery mud and water on the surface fluid (Learns lessons since 2006).

In the future that is still a continuing challenge is the deformation of geological phenomena (geohazard).

Because at this time in Lake Louise, has been accumulated sediment Lusi an increasingly coherent and relatively thick, the large area (since June 2006).

So that still raises the load effect (loading effect). At the same time continuing deformation is assumed to be triggered by sudden collapse, as well as reactivation Watukosek Fault system.\

Therefore, the task ahead is a challenge is how to reduce the accumulation of sediments in Lake Louise coherent sector, especially the West, in this case by using the main weapon of dredgers, which currently has in operation.

It is quite encouraging from Paper Andreas and H. Abidin Australia presented in April 2010 delivered a very spectacular Lusi subsidence velocity decreased, when compared with the period 2006-2007.

When we see a reality that LUSI a mud volcano that is currently in the organization towards Kuwu Bleduk model, but still keep on dancing (still very dynamic), so I judge a reality that still DIFFICULT LUPSI TERMINATED.

Today so far has been agreed upon by the expert earth and oil in Indonesia (27 August 2010), that the continuation of life Lusi forward, which has now entered the period of 'dormant mud volcano' will be decided or determined.

Having previously performed the data collection phase (data acquisition) seismic reflection (seismic reflection profiling) 3-D, can be done. With the main objective, so that it can be seen clearly and comprehensively, to the anatomy below the surface of the current burst of Lusi. And clarified the controlling power of the Lusi eruption, which is smaller than when it's dormant stage Lusi mud volcano systems.

About the expected future state of LUSI on the current position is a mud volcano is dormant:

Scenario 1, Lusi will remain in the dormant period, with production only water, which can be used for dredging operations ax;

Scenario 2, Lusi will die, so as not remove the material coming from the bowels of the earth. Or a condition, where the amount of pressure (overpressure) close to or equal to the hydrostatic pressure at the surface; and

Scenario 3 (the worst and is not expected), Lusi will enter a large eruption recurrence interval above 50,000m3/day.

Lusi duration calculations that have been using the assumption of flow rate 100,000m3/day produce estimates of 20-30 years, be irrational to be taken into account.

With regard to the reality still growing controversy among Earth Scientists in the world, related causes and triggers Lusi mud volcano eruptions.

We as part of BPLS, do not want to get stuck into the cauldron of controversy, although it continued to follow him day by day.

But Us/BPLS will be more concentrated to form and posture to, see today's end product LUSI as a mud volcano, then to seek a more holistic permanent solution.

By considering the four pillars of the development of a territorial dimension, namely: (1) Economic Growth, (2) Geological hazards and environmental Protection, (3) Resources sustainability, and (4) social development.

Implemented through the 4 main missions: to control eruption and mudflow (LUSI), along with the anticipation of the impact of geological deformation, as well as handle of social impacts and infrastructure impacts.

The following photos submitted field that supports an enlightenment, as an accumulation for more than 3 years direct accompany LUSI, which was full of DYNAMICS.

These dynamics as illustrated by a sweet girl who Lively and dynamic, full of charm. But she is also very fast today, toward maturity of a wisdom lady.

And we wait for further her wisdom and discretion. With a hope, 'Lady Lusi' No longer cause the fall of new Victims or disaster.

Thus the overall life of the community, can be immediately restored, while the economy Sidoarjo, East Java Province (number 2 in the largest province of Indonesia) to turn back quickly.

Epilogue

• NO whenever and wherever

• that Government heart and willing to see its own people and community

• suffering and unfortunates, specifically from

• disaster triggered by A NATURAL PHENOMENON.

• Let’is look ahead and future oriented, shoulder to shoulder collaborate to find the best a solution.

• We set the Lusi mud volcano disaster as a common challenge, for making immediate paradigm shift,

• Change immediately from controversy condition to smart solution,

• Change immediately from disaster conditions to for benefit .

Let us both hope and pray, for The New Emerging Forces of Sidoarjo 2010-2011.

Dedicated to the heroes of Lusi, in November of 2006 who have been sacrificed their body and soul, in a humanitarian effort to deal with disasters Lusi mud volcano.

Great nation is a nation that respects the services of his hero.

May 31, 2010, in order reflection Lusi 4 years of age,

actualized on November 10, 2010, in conjunction with National Heroes Day Celebration.

Yours Sincerely

Hardi Prasetyo