SREL Reprint #1758

Variation among model predictions within an IAEA validation exercise

T. G. Hinton

Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, Drawer E, Aiken, SC, 29802

Abstract: The variation among predictions from 12 different modeling groups was compared in an international model validation exercise. Modelers made predictions based on input from a 67-page scenario description. Time-­dependent 137Cs contamination within numerous environmental components, including dose to man, was predicted by each modeler. Variation among models decreased from over 600 to approximately 10 as the end points progressed from deposition, through the contamination of food items, to human dose. Multivariate statistical procedures showed that the variation between predictions from two identical models, operated by independent groups, was as great as the variation among the other models of diverse complexity and structure. This indicates the strong user impact of interpreting input data.

SREL Reprint #1758

Hinton, T. G. 1993. Variation among model predictions within an IAEA validation exercise. pp. 138-143 In: Proceedings of the Topical Meeting on Environmental Transport and Dosimetry. American Nuclear Society, Inc., Charleston, SC.

This information was provided by the University of Georgia's Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (srel.uga.edu).