SREL Reprint #3724

Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf (Canis lupus) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine

Svitlana Kudrenko1,2,3, Viktar Fenchuk1, Julien Vollering4, Andreas Zedrosser3,5, Nuria Selva6,7,
Katarzyna Ostapowicz8, James C. Beasley9,10, and Marco Heurich2,11,12

1Frankfurt Zoological Society, Bernhard Grzimek Allee 1, 60316 Frankfurt, Germany
2Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Germany
3Faculty of Technology, Natural Sciences and Maritime Sciences, Department of Natural Sciences and Environmental Health, University of South-Eastern Norway, Gullbringvegen 36, 3800 Bø, Norway
4Department of Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, Sogndal, Norway
5Department for Integrative Biology, Institute for Wildlife Biology and Game Management, University for Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Gregor Mendel Str. 33, A-1180 Vienna, Austria
6Institute of Nature Conservation, Polish Academy of Sciences, Mickiewicza 33, 31-120 Krakow, Poland
7Departamento de Ciencias Integradas, Facultad de Ciencias Experimentales, Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Física, Matemáticas y Computación, Universidad de Huelva, 21071 Huelva, Spain
8Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), FRAM – High North Centre from Climate
and the Environment, Tromsø 9296, Norway
9Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, University of Georgia, Aiken, SC, USA
10Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
11Bavarian Forest National Park, Grafenau, Germany
12Institute for Forest and Wildlife Management, Inland Norway University of Applied Science,
Koppang, Norway

Abstract: Due to successful conservation initiatives and legislations, the grey wolf (Canis lupus) is recolonising its historic range in Europe. However, wolves have never been extirpated across large areas in Eastern Europe but are often constrained to remote and inaccessible places due to centuries of persecution. This study aimed to identify the potentially suitable wolf habitats in Polesia, a massive cross-border lowland region extending over southern Belarus and northern Ukraine, which are often neglected in large carnivore studies at the continental scale. We hypothesized that anthropogenic rather than environmental factors govern wolf habitat suitability. We used a dataset of 4191 GPS locations obtained from radio-collared wolves (n = 26) and confirmed observations (n = 231) during 2014–2021 and applied maximum entropy method to estimate relative habitat suitability for wolves in Polesia. Artificial light at night (ALAN), proportion of cropland and tree cover were the most important factors affecting wolf habitat suitability. Road densities contributed poorly to predicting habitat suitability for wolves. Our models predicted a quarter of Polesia as suitable habitat and revealed priority areas connecting the important source populations in the Chornobyl Exclusion Zone in the east and the Białowieża Forest in the west and thus essential for long-term wolf conservation. Our results provide the bases for effective, long-term wolf monitoring and management programs in both Belarus and Ukraine. However, national and transboundary wolf management in Polesia has been extremely challenging since 2022 due to the ongoing war and subsequent habitat degradation in this part of Europe.

Keywords: Wolf; Habitat suitability modelling; Eastern Europe; Belarus; Ukraine; Artificial light at night (ALAN)

SREL Reprint #3724

Kudrenko, S., V. Fenchuk, J. Vollering, A. Zedrosser, N. Selva, K. Ostapowicz, J. C. Beasley, and M. Heurich. 2023. Walking on the dark side: Anthropogenic factors limit suitable habitat for gray wolf (Canis lupus) in a large natural area covering Belarus and Ukraine. Global Ecology and Conservation 46: e02586.

This information was provided by the University of Georgia's Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (srel.uga.edu).