SREL Reprint #3574

Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

Viktoriia Radchuk1, Thomas Reed2, Céline Teplitsky3, Martijn van de Pol4, Anne Charmantier3,
Christopher Hassall5, Peter Adamík6, Frank Adriaensen7, Markus P. Ahola8, Peter Arcese9,
Jesús Miguel Avilés10, Javier Balbontin11, Karl S. Berg12, Antoni Borras13, Sarah Burthe14, Jean Clobert15,
Nina Dehnhard16, Florentino de Lope17, André A. Dhondt18, Niels J. Dingemanse19, Hideyuki Doi20,
Tapio Eeva21, Joerns Fickel1,22, Iolanda Filella23,24, Frode Fossøy25,26, Anne E. Goodenough27,
Stephen J.G. Hall28, Bengt Hansson29, Michael Harris14, Dennis Hasselquist29, Thomas Hickler30,
Jasmin Joshi31,32, Heather Kharouba33, Juan Gabriel Martínez34, Jean-Baptiste Mihoub35,
James A. Mills36,37, Mercedes Molina-Morales17, Arne Moksnes24, Arpat Ozgul38, Deseada Parejo17,
Philippe Pilard39, Maud Poisbleau16, Francois Rousset40, Mark-Oliver Rödel41, David Scott42,
Juan Carlos Senar13, Constanti Stefanescu23,43, Bård G. Stokke24,25, Tamotsu Kusano44, Maja Tarka29,
Corey E. Tarwater45, Kirsten Thonicke46, Jack Thorley47,48, Andreas Wilting1, Piotr Tryjanowski49,
Juha Merilä50, Ben C. Sheldon51, Anders Pape Møller52, Erik Matthysen7, Fredric Janzen53,
F. Stephen Dobson54, Marcel E. Visser4, Steven R. Beissinger55, Alexandre Courtiol1,
and Stephanie Kramer-Schadt1,56

1Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research (IZW), Alfred-Kowalke-Straße 17, 10315 Berlin, Germany
2School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork T23 N73K, Ireland
3CEFE UMR 5175, CNRS – Université de Montpellier – Université PaulValéry Montpellier – EPHE,
1919 route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier Cedex 5, France
4Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW),
P.O. Box 506700 AB Wageningen, The Netherlands
5School of Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK
6Department of Zoology, Palacký University, tr. 17. listopadu 50, 771 46 Olomouc, Czech Republic
7Evolutionary Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
8Swedish Museum of Natural History, P.O. Box 5000710405 Stockholm, Sweden
9Department of Forest and Conservation Sciences, 2424 Main Mall, Vancouver V6T 1Z4 BC, Canada
10Department of Functional and Evolutionary Ecology, Experimental Station of Arid Zones (EEZA-CSIC),
Ctra de Sacramento s/n, 04120 Almería, Spain
11Department of Zoology, Faculty of Biology, University of Seville,
Avenue Reina Mercedes, 41012 Seville, Spain
12Department of Biological Sciences, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Brownsville 78520 TX, USA
13Museu de Ciències Naturals de Barcelona, P° Picasso s/n, Parc Ciutadella, 08003 Barcelona, Spain
14Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, UK
15Station of Experimental and Theoretical Ecology (SETE), UMR 5321, CNRS and University Paul Sabatier,
2 route du CNRS, 09200 Moulis, France
16Behavioural Ecology and Ecophysiology Group, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1,
2610 Wilrijk (Antwerp), Belgium
17Department of Anatomy, Cellular Biology and Zoology, University of Extremadura,
06006 Badajoz, Spain
18Lab of Ornithology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA
19Behavioural Ecology, Department of Biology, LudwigMaximilians University of Munich,
Großhaderner Str. 2, Planegg-Martinsried 82152, Germany
20Graduate School of Simulation Studies, University of Hyogo, 7-1-28 Minatojima-minamimachi,
Kobe 650-0047, Japan
21Department of Biology, University of Turku, Turku FI-20014, Finland
22Institute for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam University, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25,
14476 Potsdam, Germany
23CREAF, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès, Spain
24CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra 08193, Spain
25Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), P.O. Box 5685 Torgarden, 7485 Trondheim, Norway
26Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU),
Høgskoleringen 5, 7491 Trondheim, Norway
27School of Natural and Social Sciences, University of Gloucestershire, Swindon Road,
Cheltenham GL50 4AZ, UK
28Estonian University of Life Sciences, Kreutzwaldi 5, 51014 Tartu, Estonia
29Department of Biology, Lund University, 22362 Lund, Sweden
30Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25,
60325 Frankfurt/Main, Germany
31Biodiversity research/Systematic Botany, University of Potsdam, Maulbeerallee 1, Berlin 14469, Germany
32Institute for Landscape and Open Space, HSR Hochschule für Technik, Oberseestrasse 10,
Rapperswil 8640, Switzerland
33Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ontario K1N 6N5, Canada
34Departamento de Zoologia, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Granada, 18071 Granada, Spain
35Sorbonne Université, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle, CNRS, CESCO, UMR 7204,
61 rue Buffon, 75005 Paris, France
3610527A Skyline Drive, Corning, NY 14830, USA
373 Miromiro Drive, Kaikoura 7300, New Zealand
38Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich,
Zurich 8057, Switzerland
39LPO Mission Rapaces, 26 avenue Alain Guigue, 13104 Mas-Thibert, France
40ISEM, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier 34095, France
41Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Museum für Naturkunde,
Invalidenstrasse 43, 10115 Berlin, Germany
42Savannah River Ecology Laboratory, University of Georgia, Aiken, SC 29802, USA
43Natural History Museum of Granollers, Francesc Macià, 52, 08401 Granollers, Spain
44Department of Biological Sciences, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minami-Osawa,
Hachioji-shi, Tokyo 192-0397, Japan
45Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, 1000 E University Avenue,
Laramie, WY 82071, USA
46Research Domain 1 ‘Earth System Analysis’, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
P.O. Box 60 12 03, Telegrafenberg A31, Potsdam D-14412, Germany
47Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
48Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK
49Institute of Zoology, Poznan University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71C,
60-625 Poznan, Poland
50Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, Ecological Genetics Research Unit,
Faculty Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
51Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford,
Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
52Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Université Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405 Orsay Cedex, France
53Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Organismal Biology, Iowa State University, Ames, IA 50011, USA
54Department of Biological Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USA
55Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology,
University of California, Berkeley 94720 CA, USA
56Department of Ecology, Technische Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany

Abstract: Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

SREL Reprint #3574

Radchuk, V., T. Reed, C. Teplitsky, M. van de Pol, A. Charmantier, C. Hassal, P. Adamik, F. Adriaensen, M. P. Ahola, P. Arcese, J. M. Aviles, J. Balbontin, K. S. Berg, A. Borras, S. Burthe, J. Clobert, N. Dehnhard, F. de Lope, A. A. Dhondt, N. J. Dingemanse, H. Doi, T. Eeva, J. Fickel, I. Filella, F. Fossoy, A. E. Goodenough, S. J.G. Hall, B. Hansson, M. Harris, D. Hasselquist, T. Hickler, J. Joshi, H. Kharouba, J. G. Martinez, J. B. Mihoub, J. A. Mills, M. Molina-Morales, A. Moksnes, A. Ozgul, D. Parejo, P. Pilard, M. Poisbleau, F. Rousset, M. O. Rodel, D. E. Scott, J. C. Senar, C. Stefanescu, B. G. Stokke, T. Kusano, M. Tarka, C. E. Tarwater, K. Thonicke, J. Thorley, A. Wilting, P. Tryjanowski, J. Merila, B. C. Sheldon, A. P. Moller, E. Matthysen, F. J. Janzen, F. S. Dobson, M. E. Visser, S. R. Beissinger, A. Courtiol, and S. Kramer-Schadt. 2019. Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient. Nature Communications 10:3109.

This information was provided by the University of Georgia's Savannah River Ecology Laboratory (srel.uga.edu).