Premier League Overview

Arsenal Gone Wrong... Liverpool Gap... City Injury Crisis?

By Noah Solovey

Are Arsenal’s title hopes over?

Before the season started, many pundits predicted Arsenal to triumph this year in the intense Premier League, but things haven’t gone as planned. After signing four stars- Sterling, Calafiori, Merino, and Neto Arsenal’s strong depth grew immensely when they weren’t even desperate for new signings. The team just came off of an amazing season, finishing second in the Premier League and reaching the quarter-finals in the UCL, exiting to Tuchel’s Bayern. It seemed things were destined to go up, but things have only plummeted as far as we can tell.

Whenever there is a crisis like this, there are always reasons, and one of those is their injuries. Both Saka and Odegaard, who are crucial to the success of the team, missed several critical games. During their injury period of 6 games, the team only picked up 7 points and dropped 8 points. And when you combine this number with the games where Saka and Odegaard have been injured and Arsenal has received red cards during the match, the numbers are unreal. 7 points have been dropped in games where Arsenal have dropped to ten men.

Where do things go from here? Saka and Odegaard have both healed but other minor players are still suffering- such as Tomyaisu. The next three fixtures are Nottm Forest, West Ham, and Man United, and from there to the twentieth gameweek they do not face a single top-table team. As a football pundit, I predict them to win six out of their next eight games only dropping points to Brentford and Man United. This projects them to receive 23 points. As Arsenal currently have 19 points, so mathematically they should have 42 points by Gameweek 21. We will see if this affects their title challenge after reviewing Chelsea, Man City, and Liverpool.

Arne Slot is making magic…

Every Liverpool fan is extremely satisfied with the job of their new gaffer, Arne Slot. The Reds are currently at the top of the table, with a five-point gap between them and second-place Man City. But why is Liverpool finding this season so easy when they struggled in the past? I have a few hypotheses, but what have they already done to make them so triumphant? You cannot argue they have only played easy teams, as they have beaten Chelsea, tied to Arsenal, beaten Unai Emery’s Aston Villa, and crushed Ten Hag’s United. They are still yet to face Man City and Spurs, which will obviously be extremely tough. Looking at these four fixtures, two have been played at Anfield and two have been played away, and dropped two points in their away games. They haven’t lost a single hard game at Anfield. So have their fixtures been pretty easy? Yes. 

They also haven’t had any injury problems except Diego Jota, which does not make an impact at all because Liverpool are heavily stacked in their offense. One can argue that if Virgil Van Dijk were to get a season-long injury, they would be worse than Arsenal. In Arsenal’s injury case, Saka and Odegaard were both so beneficial because Arsenal lacked depth in their positions. Liverpool have in fact had it super easy.

Let’s look at the future now, from Gameweek 12-20. I predict they to drop six points and receive 21 points. They currently have 28, so this would put them at 49 points by Gameweek 21. This means they would have a six-point gap between Arsenal, which to me, is shocking. I will overview this later but as of right now, Arsenal’s recent form is really affecting them.

Man City has an injury crisis, but after the international break, they mean business.

Pep Guardiola’s side has recently suffered four consecutive losses in all competitions, but there’s a reason behind it, they have a horrible injury crisis. In their recent losses to Bournemouth and Brighton, many have been absent, and the impact of Rodri’s ACL has hit them hard. And for City, I’m not going to go all in-depth on their problem, because it’s obvious. But I am going to overview why this international break has come at the perfect time. 

(Fotmob Data) On Fotmob, all of Man City’s current injuries (except long-term Rodri and Oscar Bobb) are expected to return after the international break. This means City will be back to a full squad ready to fight and overcome the biggest of challenges. I predict they will only drop two points in the next eight games. This means they receive 22 points in the upcoming eight fixtures. 22 plus their current amount of points, 23, gets 45. Which places them in second in the predicted standings.

Table Overview

These projections mean Liverpool will remain in 1st, City will remain in 2nd, but off of separately predicting Chelsea’s games… Arsenal will be in fourth. But the real question is: Will it be Liverpool’s year? My answer’s no. UP THE FOREST! I’m kidding. I think Liverpool will poop out near the end and City will win it. Or you never know. Nottm Forest has a chance.