August 31, 1984 [found in MER's file, "Roger 1984" is on back of letter]
Dear Dad:
As you reunite with your three siblings on September 7, I expect you will reminisce on your families and reflect on some of the changes that have occurred in the world during your life. Because I have worked in the field of population and reproductive health for most of my professional career, I would like to share some simple statistics on population growth with you. Perhaps It will give you an extra topic of conversation.
In 1905, the year of your birth, the world's population totaled 1.7 billion and was growing by about 9.4 million per year. When you were married in 1937 the world population had increased to 2.2 billion and was growing by 22 million per year. Today, in 1984, the world's population is 4.8 billion and growing by 78 million per year.
Statistical tables put your current life expectancy at 86, which suggests you will live to 1991, at which time the world population will be 5.4 billion and growing by 92 million a year. If you live until 100 years, or the year 2005, world population is expected to reach 6.6 billion - nearly a 4-fold increase during this century.
It is easy to see that the number of people on this planet earth has changed dramatically during your lifetime. In fact, about 1 in 7 persons ever born in the history of the world will be born in your lifetime. Increases in population earlier in history occurred much more slowly. When population growth led Abraham and Lot to part company, the world contained about 8 million people and was increasing by fewer than 3,000 persons per year.
When Jesus was born the world population had reached 300 million and was increasing by about 108,000 per year.
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In 1480, when Vinet Rochat migrated from Villes-de-Rochejean in Burgundy to L'Abbaye in Switzerland, world population was 722 million and increasing by 404,000 persons per year. In 1750, when your great-great grandfather Pierre Noise Rochat was born, world population was about 800 million and lower mortality began to lead to a rapid increase in world population growth. By 1828, when your grandfather Henri Louis Abram Isaac Rochat was born in Pont, Switzerland, world population had reached 1.1 billion. When he first migrated to New York in 1852 world population had reached 1.3 billion, and when he homesteaded in St. Mary's, Idaho in 1884 it was 1.5 billion.
The momentum of population growth increased the world population by 3 million during the life of Jesus, by 600 million during your grandfathers 79-year lifetime, by 3.1 billion during the first 79 years of your life, and will increase at 600 million during your next 6 years. Imagine ... what took 79 years in your grandfather's time will be done in your life between ages 79 and 86!
Why? Rational thinking, education, industrialization, public health, sanitation, and new technology have all contributed to declines in mortality, which has led to the rapid increase in population growth. Even in destitute countries (and 20 percent of the population of the world is considered to be destitute) mortality has fallen well below fertility levels. Clearly the current pace of population growth will not continue, but it remains a matter of speculation as to how the growth rate will stop.
In Mexico City, President Reagan proposed that free economic systems are the single war important way to lower fertility. Some evangelistic prophets in this country predict that the world will end soon and no action needs to be taken. But professionals, such as demographers and public health workers, and many others in this country and throughout the world recognize that most parents want no more children; many wanted fewer than they had. They, and I, believe that the most humane, compassionate approach to the population issue in other countries and for the future well being of our country is to make
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I hope you, Elsie, Gladys and Don enjoy this brief report on the family history of man and the Rochat's. I love you. I salute each of you with respect and best wishes. May your days be peaceful.
Your son,
Roger
see photos 1984 Rochat reunion Gig Harbor