Most and Least Accurate Predictions for the 21st Century
Jayden Leung
Introduction
Humans have probably tried predicting the future since time immemorial. We’re 23 years into the 21st century now, with babies born in 2000 possibly graduating university this year. As we progress into this century which has brought immense change, let's reflect on the serious and casual, optimistic and pessimistic, and, sometimes just plain weird, predictions about the future. Some have been almost dead-accurate, while others appear unthinkable, now let’s get started…
The Pandemic
Bill Gates in a TED talk hosted in 2015 claimed that a global pandemic would be one of the greatest risks in the future. He proclaimed that a pandemic worse than Ebola would be more likely than a war to kill over 10 million people in the next two decades. When his warning came true five years later, he pledged 2 billion to combat COVID-19. Fortunately, COVID-19, although killing more than Ebola, has not killed over 10 million people as of the time of writing. He urged the world to see Ebola as a “wakeup call”, and hopefully COVID-19 will be seen similarly.
News Headlines
Another renowned technological innovator, Nikola Tesla, anticipated news headlines of the 21st would primarily focus on scientific and philosophical advancements, while crime and politics would be shunted to the back pages. He also envisioned budgets for education exceeding those for war. The notion is laughable now, with news of current events being dominated by the Ukraine war and other political matters. While scientific discovery is widely reported, knowledge of developments in philosophical thought remains relegated to academics. Education spending, in Canada at least, did end up exceeding defense spending though.
Pre-prepared Meals
American engineer John Watkins foretold that “Ready-cooked meals will be bought from establishments similar to our bakeries of today”. With supermarkets and restaurants serving pre-cooked meals being a staple of modern life, it’s eerie how accurate his vision was. Our fast-paced lives are demanding ever more quick and convenient means of getting food. This trend doesn’t seem to be stopping as the American ready-made meal market continues to grow after the pandemic.
Personal Airplanes
British Lord Chancellor in 1930, Frederick Edwin Smith, believed that in 2030 people would own small personal airplanes which they could conveniently take for weekend leisure trips. He gave the example of London clubbers flying to Greenland for a Saturday ski trip and returning in the evening of that day. While this idea seems outlandish, he did accurately allude to the rise of mass air travel, with growth in revenue passenger kilometers (the number of passengers multiplied by the distance they fly) skyrocketing since 1950. Today, you can also fly from London England to Nuuk in Greenland in just over five hours, which is approximately the length of a morning.
New Food
1950s science fiction author Robert A. Heinlein thought that fish and yeast would replace beef, which would become a luxury, as our primary sources of protein. Fellow sci-fi author Isaac Asimov in 1964 foresaw a 2014 World’s Fair featuring “mock-turkey” and pseudosteak” . It seems he roughly foresaw the invention of meat grown in labs from cultured cells. The past decade also saw production of farmed fish surpass production of beef. Heinlein and Asimov made a pretty accurate predictions from over half a century ago, although, as someone with a yeast intolerance, I remain grateful that yeast protein isn’t commonplace.
Lost Letters
Not all of Watkins’s predictions came to fruition. He predicted that the letters C, Q, and X would be eliminated from the alphabet as they were unnecessary. Q and X are honestly quite rare, but I don’t see how C is supposed to be eliminated from use, given how common it is. I’ve used six Cs in the paragraph up to this point. The thought that mass communication would warp the English language at a rapid pace, leading to simpler and quicker forms of communication. Ofc that prediction was wrong dont u think lol 💀
Global Warming 2
The above issue was ominously prophesied by the Los Angeles Times to become a “hot issue” of the 1990s, superseding nuclear war as the foremost danger to civilization. The scientists they spoke to accurately foretold the many effects of global warming that we are suffering today, from rising sea levels, to desertification, to the mass extinction of species. On the bright side, they predicted that cities like Los Angeles would attempt to wean their citizens of gas-powered cars with stricter air quality standards, which were implemented in real life. And now electric vehicles are starting to replace gas powered ones.
Collapse of America 7
Russian political writer Igor Panarin envisioned the collapse of America in 2010 as it would be, allegedly, on the verge of civil war. It would then split into six parts, each of which would be dominated by a foreign power. Ironic how in real life some are now foretelling the collapse of Panarin’s native country Russia following a predicted defeat in the Ukraine war. However, pessimism about the future of America, particularly its economy, remains a popular sentiment among its population. I have what could be considered an optimistic view that doomsday predictions are overrated and simply become popular because negative emotions spread faster than positive ones. We humans have probably been prophesying the end of the world since the beginning of time. Yet, we are still alive.
Works Cited
Bukszpan, Daniel. "14 spectacularly wrong predictions." CNBC, 27 Aug. 2014, www.cnbc.com/2011/05/19/14-spectacularly-wrong-predictions.html. Accessed 19 Mar. 2023.
Geoghegan, Tom. "Ten 100-year predictions that came true." BBC, 11 Jan. 2012, www.bbc.com/news/magazine-16444966.amp. Accessed 19 Mar. 2023.
Gutoskey, Ellen. "24 Strange Predictions For the 21st Century." Mental Floss, 3 Sept. 2020, www.mentalfloss.com/article/629623/24-strange-predictions-21st-century. Accessed 19 Mar. 2023.
Landsberg, Mitchell. "Global Warming Is Expected to Be the Hot Issue of 1990s : Environment: Some scientists studying the greenhouse effect say the sky is falling. Others believe the best advice is to stay cool." Los Angeles Times, 29 Oct. 1989, www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1989-10-29-mn-194-story.html. Accessed 19 Mar. 2023.
"The next outbreak? We're not ready." TED, 2015, www.ted.com/talks/bill_gates_the_next_outbreak_we_re_not_ready?language=dz.
Novak, Matt. "Nikola Tesla's Amazing Predictions for the 21st Century." Smithsonian Magazine, 19 Apr. 2013, www.smithsonianmag.com/history/nikola-teslas-amazing-predictions-for-the-21st-century-26353702/. Accessed 19 Mar. 2023.
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