World Cup: Odds, predictions, what we’ve seen so far
Omar Mahmoud
Wow. What an amazing first 2 weeks!
As I am writing this, the group stage is finished, with the Knockout stages right around the corner.
Before I even start, let’s just talk about these 6 games :
Argentina 1-2 Saudi Arabia
Germany 1-2 Japan
Tunisia 1-0 France
Japan 2-1 Spain
Cameroon 1-0 Brazil
South Korea 2-1 Portugal
Five COMPLETELY unexpected teams beat 6 powerhouses of the world. But, Saudi bottled it and were out of the tournament in last place, and Switzerland beat Serbia so Cameroon could not qualify. Also, Tunisia did not qualify as Australia won their last game. However, Japan and Korea qualified because of their wins! And Germany is kicked out of the group stage for 2 years in a row. :)
There are a few more games I want to talk about.
Spain 7-0 Costa Rica
This was a banger of a game. Goals were scored left and right, here and there, and Spain showed no mercy. The worst part about it was Keylor Navas was in goal for Costa Rica, one of the greatest goalies of all time.
USA 0-0 England
The most BORING game of this World Cup. Everyone expected this game to be a shocker, that it would decide permanently between “Football” and “Soccer” (it’s football by the way) and, also, that it would be an epic battle. Instead, it was sleep-inducing with the USA making a few “dangerous” attacks.
England 6-2 Iran
This was the game that gave me the feeling that England will go far this year. Like, semi-finals, or maybe even finals. Their whole squad contributed to it and it was truly a team game.
South Korea 2-3 Ghana
Ghana led 2 nil up until halftime, and then Korea scored 2 goals in 5 minutes. Then Kudus scored Ghana's 3rd, and his 2nd, to win the game for his team. Really exciting game.
Ghana 0-2 Uruguay
So, this was the game I really talked about last month, with it being set as the revenge for Africa against Suarez and his team. Instead, Ghana missed a penalty (again) and Suarez assisted twice. All that to say, it just backfired on Ghana.
Next, let’s look at the bracket.
Let me go through the expectations for the first round.
Round of 16:
Netherlands vs USA: Netherlands win
USA barely qualified for this round in the first place, drawing twice and barely winning their last game against Iran. They have only scored 2 goals so far. Netherlands, on the other hand, finished top of a group with Ecuador, (a dark horse that was VERY close to qualifying), Senegal, (a strong team), and Qatar, (the hosts). They scored a total of 5 goals, and Coady Gakpo is on FIRE. So, yeah, I have Netherlands as going on to the quarter-finals.
Argentina vs Australia: Argentina win, extra time
Normally this would be an easy win for Argentina, but they did lose to Saudi Arabia. Australia beat Tunisia and Denmark, and were second only by goal difference. So it will be challenging for Argentina, but I still believe they'll go through.
Goal difference :
(Goals Scored - Goals Conceded)
Japan vs Croatia : Unknown
Japan shocked the world twice by beating Spain and Germany, while Croatia has a stronger squad. This could go either way.
Brazil vs South Korea : Brazil Win
Brazil is easily better. They are favorites to win the whole thing, and they only lost to Cameroon because they knew they already qualified. Same thing with Korea, who only beat Portugal because they also were not trying. And Neymar will be back for Brazil, so Brazil will win easily.
Morocco vs Spain: Unknown
Spain lost to Japan, Morocco beat Belgium. Honestly this match up could go either way.
Portugal vs Switzerland : Portugal Win, extra time
Portugal is a much stronger team, with one of the GOAT’s in their squad. However, Switzerland is good defensively and will put up a challenge for Portugal.
England vs Senegal: England easy and big win
The England team looks on fire this year. They scored 9 goals and only conceded 2 throughout the entire tournament. They have the most valuable national team on Earth, and their squad depth is unbelievable. They have a world class starting team and a world class bench. Their bench team could beat Senegal. Yes, Senegal are AFCON champions, but that was by a penalty shootout. They also barely made it out of the group.
France vs Poland : Will not comment right now.
Although France supposedly broke the World Cup Curse by qualifying from their group, I think the curse will still count if they get kicked out in the Round of 16. Poland (specifically their goalie, Szczęsny) have been on fire. Their goalie has saved 2 penalties, and has countless other saves in the game. I actually do not know about this one.
Those were the predictions. Now, let’s talk about the odds. Personally, I want either Portugal or Brazil to win the world cup, but statistically, here are the odds:
The top team on that list that did not make it out is Belgium, while the bottom still in is Morocco.
Personally, I would say that either Brazil or England have the highest chances, simply because of their squad value and depth. They have multiple world-class players and have proven themselves in the group stages. Also, neither of them relies on penalties. They are scoring machines and defensive beasts, so that’s who I have.
Finally, let's talk about the individual awards.
Each World Cup, a few awards are handed out to players based on their performance. These are the Golden Boot (top scorer), the Golden Ball (player of the tournament), the Golden Glove (best goalie), and the best young player.
The current award holders:
Golden Boot: Harry Kane, 2018, 6 goals
Golden Ball: Luka Modric
Golden Glove: Thibaut Courtois
Young Player: Kylian Mbappe
For the Golden Boot, as of right now, 5 players have 3 goals: Coady Gakpo, Enner Valencia, Kylian Mbappe, and Alvaro Morta Marcus Rashford. Valencia, unfortunately, was eliminated with his team and, therefore, can not win it. Based on this, it is too early to say who will win, but I can say that I do not think Morata or Rashford will win it, and I think I can add Fernandes and Giroud, and of course, the 2 GOATs, Messi and Ronaldo, who have actually never scored at the World Cup knockout stages.
The Golden Ball is too early to predict, but Gakpo, Fernandes, and Mbappe all look like strong contenders.
The Golden Glove is, as of right now, clearly destined for Poland’s goalie, Szczęsny. He has saved two penalties, as I said, and looks to be on fire. So, yeah, it isn’t a debate, as of right now he is the clear winner, but things can happen.
For the Young Player, there are only 2 contenders in my eyes. Gavi, Spain's star, and Bellingham, England’s key midfielder. I would have included Musiala, but he was eliminated with Germany.
There you have it. The odds, predictions, and recap of the World Cup so far. By the next issue, the World Cup will be over and I will write my final column in this series. In it, I will talk about some behind-the-scenes stuff of the World Cup, like the culture of Qatar, the game ball, and other related items. I will also recap the whole tournament, and outline to you the bracket and the award winners, and whether or not the predictions were true.
As I’ve said before, please feel free to contact me if you have any questions about the article or football in general, I’m happy to talk.
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