COPA America 2024
Omar Mahmoud
Omar Mahmoud
Wow, this month sure is a marathon of soccer related writing. This is the 3rd article I’ve written this month, after one on the Euros and one on the Champions League Final.
This time, we depart Europe and head all the way over across the Atlantic ocean to our southern neighbours; South America.
COPA America - The international tournament for South America.
The COPA America is actually the oldest still running international football tournament in the world, first played in 1916. It is weird in the sense that it has no set timing for how often they play the tournament, with it being played every 3 or 4 years. The latest edition was 2021, and Argentina were the winners, winning it in the land of their rivals.
There is another thing that is weird about it. It is the only one out of all 6 continental tournaments without qualifications. Oceania, North America, Europa, Asia and Africa all have some sort of qualification tournament to determine the teams who will join the host. However, South America does not. This is because they have only 10 nations which compete and there is really no benefit not to take all of them. CONMEBOL is the confederation with the least number of participants.
Another weird thing is their format. They have no set format for their tournament, and it changes frequently. The most recent one was from 1993 to 2019, with an exception of 2016 (more later on that), which had 3 groups of 4, taking the 2 group leaders from each one, plus the 2 highest ranked 3rd place finishers to qualify for the quarter finals. That is only 12 teams. “How?” you may ask. Well, since they have a very small number of teams, CONMEBOL almost always invites teams from other confederations, and since North America is so close, they always invite 2 teams from here. Mexico, Costa Rica and the USA are frequent visitors, but Jamaica, Panama and even Qatar have competed.
Exceptions:
In 2016, the exception was that it was the 100 year anniversary of COPA America. So, there had to be a special case. Despite there being an edition a year before (in 2015), CONMEBOL and CONCACAF teamed up together and made a retitled COPA America called COPA América Centenario. They hosted it in the USA and invited them, along with 5 other North American teams.
In 2019 they invited 2 Asian countries instead of 2 North American. The last edition was a historic one where there were NO invited guests. Only 10 countries, 2 groups of 5, top 4 from each group went to the Quarter Finals.
Now for 2024. There is the same format as in 2016; 16 teams, 4 groups of 4, with the top 2 from each group going on to the Quarter Finals. From there, it is a straight knockout to the Final.
Why is it 16 this year? Well, this year marks the first tournament involving CONMEBOL or CONCACAF since the 2 associations made a historic strategic partnership in January 2023. The partnership involves USA hosting the South American Cup, as well as inviting 6 teams from North America. It is the same exact format as the 2016 competition.
However; what is different from 2016 is that Canada is in this tournament. The 6 North American countries were chosen by taking some teams from the CONCACAF Nations League (an extra tournament, very long story)
The USA, Jamaica, Panama and Mexico qualified as semi finalists, and Canada and Costa Rica qualified by playing a playoff. (USA did not qualify as hosts automatically, but ended up securing it).
This makes up the following List :
Argentina
Brazil
Uruguay
Paraguay
Bolivia
Venezuela
Peru
Chile
Ecuador
Colombia
USA
Canada
Mexico
Panama
Jamaica
Costa Rica
Now, to wrap up, let’s talk about some key points :
Canada is in a TOUGH group, going against the best team in the tournament, the current title holders of both the WC and the COPA America; Argentina. They also have to go against Chile and Peru, both strong teams historically who have each won the tournament twice. However, Canada’s saving grace is that both teams have a horrible recent record in their WC qualifying. Personally though, I don’t think they will qualify.
The hosts USA have a fairly easy group to qualify from; however, I predict they will lose to Uruguay and clinch 2nd spot. It’s a pretty obvious guess in Group C
There aren’t many crazy match-ups, other than maybe Uruguay versus USA, Brazil versus Colombia. Usually the intensity starts in the knockouts.
My predictions for who marks it out :
Group A :
Argentina 1st
Peru 2nd
Group B:
Mexico 1st
Ecuador 2nd
Group C:
Uruguay 1st
USA 2nd
Group D:
Brazil 1st
Colombia 2nd
It is pretty straightforward and, honestly, I would not expect many shocks. But, hey, this is football, I guess we will see.
Also, I have Colombia going far in the tournament. I see them as massive dark horses and they could go far, maybe the semi finals. They are in good form and recently beat Brazil.
The statistical favourites for this tournament are :
Argentina are the clear favourites.
Brazil are 2nd favourites
(It is always those 2 due to their history, but personally I have Uruguay 2nd over Brazil)
Uruguay
Colombia and USA are 4th, but they have a VERY slim chance of winning it according to the bets. So, like I said, Colombia are dark horses
According to the numbers and bets, the only real chances are Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, and it will take a lot for Argentina to lose this thing.
It should be noted that despite USA being a strong team and having home advantage, never before has an invited team won the COPA America, despite there being many tournaments. The furthest was only once when Mexico reached the final and lost in 2001.
That’s it for this article. That’s it for this year, actually. This is the final article I will write for the 2023/24 Ravens Call. Thank you so much for following and I hope you enjoyed this content. I certainly love talking about this and am really looking forward to next year!
This is Omar Mahmoud, signing off.
See you in September!
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