Champions League: Quarter Finals
Omar Eldosouky
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Welcome Back Guys!
Ok, whew, the Round of 16 was intense. If you have not read my discussion on that yet, check it out here. Now, let’s talk about the Quarter Finals, the draw for the Semi-Finals, and make some more concrete predictions.
The Quarter Final Draw was :
PSG vs Aston Villa
Barcelona vs Dortmund
Arsenal vs Real Madrid
Bayern Munich vs Inter Milan
Here are the results:
PSG vs Aston Villa :
PSG Won. In this round PSG truly showed the world that they are here to stay. After winning 10 - 0 in the knockout playoffs and then beating the then-best team in the world; Liverpool, PSG continued their hot streak by beating tough team Aston Villa 3 - 1 at their stadium and losing 3 - 2 away, but still qualifying 5 - 4 on aggregate. They showed up well in both games, and were even in the 2nd game, leading 5 - 1 at one point on aggregate. That Aston Villa scored 3 is only evidence for their quality and not for PSG’s weakness. Despite them knocking out my team, I have to give them credit. For the past couple of years, they have been in a weak state in this tournament, despite having stacked super star teams. This year, the likes of Désiré Doué, Goncalo Ramos, Barcola and Vitinha are playing excellently on the team, and showing that balance is more important than names.
Barcelona vs Dortmund :
Barcelona won. Everyone’s favourite team, Barcelona, is in the Semi Finals. They have truly shown their quality this year, making up for a rough past two years by playing beautiful football. They finished 2nd in the league stage, are currently in the Spanish Cup final, and are first in La Liga. After demolishing Dortmund 4 - 0 in the first leg, it seemed to all be clear that they will go through. However, Dortmund made it very hard right up until the end, and a Guirassy hat-trick seemed to spur a sensational comeback. Despite that, the 2nd leg ended 3 -1 and Barcelona went through 5 - 3 on aggregate. Barcelona are another truly sensational team. Their front 3 is the face of football; Lewandowski who is back to his prime and proving that he is not only good in Germany, Raphinha who is in the top 3 best players in the world and is a frontrunner for the Ballon D'or, and the world’s current best youngster, (who is a 12th grader by our age by the way), Lamine Yamal. Pedri is back to his best shining self and their defence, despite being very leaky, is decently strong.
Arsenal vs Real Madrid :
Arsenal won. This one felt good. Arsenal were talking a lot on how they were ready to beat Madrid, but no one took them seriously. Everyone who is anyone predicted the Kings of the Champions League to qualify to the Semi Finals, and Arsenal was thought to need a miracle to go through. Surprisingly and uncharacteristically Arsenal backed up their words. The first leg ended 3 - 0 in favour of Arsenal at their home stadium, with two spectacular Declan Rice free kicks and a nice goal from Merino. The talk for the next week was about a “remontada” not seen before and a “Real Madrid classic”. All that talk however was NOT backed up, and Madrid lost 1 - 2 in their own stadium, with Arsenal even missing a penalty. Despite my lack of love for both teams, this one felt good for all the talk that Madrid had.
Bayern vs Inter Milan :
Inter Milan won. Inter Milan is a strong team, and are the favourites to win the Serie A. Bayern are Bayern, with all their glorious European history, and are running away with the Bundesliga title. The match was expected to be tight and tense, and that was exactly what it was. The first leg was at the stadium of Bayern, Allianz Arena. Inter Milan scored in the first half by Lautaro Martinez, and that was the only first half goal across both legs if that says something. The 2nd half, Muller gave his goodbye Champions League goal to the ALlianz arena in the dying stages of the game, and all seemed well for Bayern. However, Inter had other plans, and just 3 minutes later Inter Milan scored a winning goal, which proved to be vital. In the 2nd leg, after a tense first half that ended in 0-0, chaos broke loose. Bayern scored early in the half, and it seemed they were not ready to give up. Lautaro Martinez responded with a controversial goal from a corner that in my opinion should have been cancelled, and not even 3 minutes later Pavard scored a header from another corner against his former club. Bayern pulled one back to make it 2-2, but it was not enough, and Inter progressed through 4-3 on aggregate.
The four teams who progressed are :
PSG
Barcelona
Arsenal
Inter
The Semi Finals matchup is :
Arsenal vs PSG
Barcelona vs Inter
These two matchups are obviously insane, and the winners face each other in the Champions League final on May 31 at the Allianz Arena.
Predictions :
It is really hard to decide who will win this Champions League. Statistical predictions show that no team has more than a 5 percent greater chance of winning than their opponent. If I were forced to make a prediction, I would say that:
A) PSG are likely to reach the final, as Arsenal are still not convincing in the league and also considering that Real Madrid are in a weak patch this year.
B) For the other matchup: on paper it seems more likely that Barcelona will win given their quality, but I will actually go with Inter Milan. Inter Milan are a much less leaky defence, having only conceded two goals before the Quarter finals. Their Serie A shows similar strong defensive numbers. They are well rounded, disciplined and a scary force that I believe will bring Barcelona down.
If we go for an Inter vs PSG Final, I would not be able to choose either of them. Inter has the heritage that PSG lacks, having won 3 Champions Leagues themselves, but PSG are extremely strong. It is hard to make a choice.
The top goalscorer is obviously going to either Raphinha or Lewandowski, who are on 12 and 11 goals respectively. They are the only two players of the top 5 scorers left and are both expected to score goals in the Semis.
The top assister will go to Raphinha, as it seems unlikely that Hakimi will get three assists in his next games, and also Raphinha not getting any more.
Whew! There you have it. A comprehensive breakdown of the Quarter finals and what we are looking at for the future. Check out next month’s article to discuss the Semi Finals.
Make sure to check out my previous articles.
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