Uke 35

Påstandshierarki

For meg er det nyttig å kunne kategorisere påstander ut fra hvilken vekt jeg bør tillegge dem:


Verdien av påstander kan bero på hvem som ytrer dem; politikere og deres medier har ingen troverdighet

Ulike hypoteser om samme fenomen kan betraktes som likeverdige medmindre det finnes begrunnelser som kan godtgjøre at en hypotese er bedre enn en annen.


Forøvrig: 

Hypoteser, postulater, vitenskap og religion

Nivåer for observasjon og forklaring

The Pyramid of Life, ThoughtCo, 2019-11-10



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Sitater

“Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.”
― Marcus Aurelius​​ (121-180)

“God is an hypothesis, and, as such, stands in need of proof: the onus probandi rests on the theist.”
― Percy Bysshe Shelley (1792-1822)

"The hypotheses we accept ought to explain phenomena which we have observed. But they ought to do more than this: our hypotheses ought to foretell phenomena which have not yet been observed."
— William Whewell (1794-1866)

"Progress is achieved by exchanging our theories for new ones which go further than the old, until we find one based on a larger number of facts. ... Theories are only hypotheses, verified by more or less numerous facts. Those verified by the most facts are the best, but even then they are never final, never to be absolutely believed."
— Claude Bernard (1813-1878)

“The scientists from Franklin to Morse were clear thinkers and did not produce erroneous theories. The scientists of today think deeply instead of clearly. One must be sane to think clearly, but one can think deeply and be quite insane.”
― Nikola Tesla (1856-1943)

"Theories without facts may be barren, but facts without theories are meaningless."
—Kenneth E. Boulding (1910-1993)

“If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
― Ronald H. Coase (1910-2013)

“I cannot give any scientist of any age better advice than this: the intensity of the conviction that a hypothesis is true has no bearing on whether it is true or not.”
― Peter Medawar (1915-1987)

"The shrewd guess, the fertile hypothesis, the courageous leap to a tentative conclusion - these are the most valuable coins of the thinker at work. But in most schools guessing is heavily penalized and is associated somehow with laziness".
—Jerome Bruner (1915-2016)

“It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong.”
― Richard P. Feynman (1918-1988)

“For every fact there is an infinity of hypotheses.”
― Robert M. Pirsig (1928-2016)

“scientific theories cannot be deduced by purely mathematical reasoning.”
― Steven Weinberg (1933-2021)

"The degree of confirmation assigned to any given hypothesis is sensitive to properties of the entire belief system... simplicity, plausibility, and conservatism are properties that theories have in virtue of their relation to the whole structure of scientific beliefs taken collectively. A measure of conservatism or simplicity would be a metric over global properties of belief systems."
— Jerry Fodor (1935-2017)

"A hypothesis is something which looks as if it might be true and were true, and which is capable of verification or refutation by comparison with facts"
― Charles Sanders Peirce (1839-1914)

“A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes. It is innocent unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty until found effective.”
― Edward Teller (1908-2003)

"The strength of a theory is not what it allows, but what it prohibits; if you can invent an equally persuasive explanation for any outcome, you have zero knowledge."
― Eliezer Yudkowsky

"A theory can be proved by experiment; but no path leads from experiment to the birth of a theory."
—Manfred Eigen (1927-2019)

"A theory has only the alternative of being right or wrong. A model has a third possibility: it may be right, but irrelevant."
—Manfred Eigen (1927-2019)

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