Uke 46 - Grad av usikkerhet

Grad av usikkerhet

Verde er et tilfeldig sted, men det finns grader av tilfeldighet: Sikkerhet ⇒risiko⇒usikkerhet⇒uvitenhet⇒

Sikkerhet; historisk hendelse, MEN: historien omskrives ideologisk…‽

risiko; mange identiske hendelser har skjedd før; risiko kan beregnes vha. statistikk

usikkerhet; framtidige hendelser; usikkerhet kan IKKE beregnes, men mange bløffer

uvitenhet; hva skjer?

Illusjon; "Deciding under uncertainty is bad enough, but deciding under an illusion of certainty is catastrophic."
—Kenneth E. Boulding (1910-1993)

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“There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing.”
― Robert Burns (1759-1796)

“Il n'est pas certain que tout soit incertain."
(It is not certain that everything is uncertain.)
― Blaise Pascal (1623-1662)

“The business of philosophy is to teach man to live in uncertainty... not to reassure him, but to upset him.”
― Lev Shestov (1866-1938)

”Uncertainty is an unknown risk, while Risk is a measurable uncertainty.”
― Frank H. Knight (1885-1972)

"'Random' means 'you do the choosing'."
— W. Ross Ashby (1903-1972)

"The human condition can almost be summed up in the observation that, whereas all experiences are of the past, all decisions are about the future. It is the great task of human knowledge to bridge this gap and to find those patterns in the past which can be projected into the future as realistic images."
—Kenneth E. Boulding (1910-1993)

"Deciding under uncertainty is bad enough, but deciding under an illusion of certainty is catastrophic."
—Kenneth E. Boulding (1910-1993)

"I have approximate answers and possible beliefs about different things, but I'm not absolutely sure about anything."
― Richard P. Feynman (1918-1988)

"Since emotions are few and reasons are many (said the robot Giscard) the behavior of a crowd can be more easily predicted than the behavior of one person."
—Isaac Asimov (1920-1992)

“In the high country of the mind one has to become adjusted to the thinner air of uncertainty...”
― Robert M. Pirsig (1928-2016)

“The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty: not knowing what comes next.”
― Ursula K. Le Guin (1929-2018)

"Goals transform a random walk into a chase."
― Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi

"The certainty of death and the uncertainty of the hour of death is a source of grief throughout our life."
—Edgar Morin 

“RISK: If risks are known, good decisions require logic and statistical thinking. UNCERTAINTY: If some risks are unknown, good decisions also require intuition and smart rules of thumb.”
― Gerd Gigerenzer

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