Uke 40 - statistikk er historie
Statistikk er historie
Statistikk viser utfallsfordelingen av diskrete hendelser i fortid
Bruk av statistikk for å spå framtidige hendelser forutsetter at framtid blir lik fortid.
Historien viser at det ikke er slik…
Det er kun tilfelle under strengt kontrollerte betingelser som myntkast, terningkast, o.l.
Man kan framsette utallige hypoteser om framtidige hendelser og alle er like gode, jfr. Emergenshypotese 2
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Noen sitater:
"Every prediction is an operation on the past"
― Norbert Wiener (1894-1964)
"What Homo knows at any moment, of the actual future is absolutely nothing."
— W. Ross Ashby (1903-1972)
"Today, modern technologies, from mathematical stock prediction methods to medical imaging machines, compete for confidence promised by religion and authority"
― John Dewey (1859-1952)
“There is no way that we can predict the weather six months ahead beyond giving the seasonal average”
― Stephen Hawking (1942-2018)
“The test of science is its ability to predict”
― Richard Feynman (1918-1988)
“The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.”
“We can fortell little of the future save that the thing that has not been is the thing that shall be.”
― J.B.S. Haldane (1892-1964)
"The hypotheses we accept ought to explain phenomena which we have observed. But they ought to do more than this: our hypotheses ought to foretell phenomena which have not yet been observed."
— William Whewell (1794-1866)
"In the long run, failure was the only thing that worked predictably. All else was accidental."
― Joseph Heller (1923-1999)
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