The Roadmap to Return document describes the current monitoring system. This system will be replicated at the program level to allow us to keep track of the evolving situation in the specific location(s) which affect the program.
The situation we face is not static or linear. We must plan flexibility into our approach. The below table provides a structure which allows us to turn our controls up or down, governed by predetermined indicators, including official advice and public health metrics which are reliable, consistently updated and easily observable.
This model will be customized at the local level to meet the local context.
A network of research, policy and public health experts convened by Harvard’s Global Health Institute and Edmond J. Safra Center for Ethics launched a Key Metrics For COVID Suppression framework that provides clear, accessible guidance to policy makers and the public on how to target and suppress COVID-19 more effectively across the US.
After reviewing this framework with our consultant, Danielle Boch, it was determined that it meets our criteria and provides solutions to the problems we’ve identified:
Problem 1: When is it safe enough for AHAH to return to a location?
Problem 2: How do we assess and communicate the appropriate level of controls needed in a given location?
This new “path to zero” framework helps communities determine the severity of the outbreak they are responding to. This COVID Risk Level map shows if a county or state is on the green, yellow, orange or red risk level, based on the number of new daily cases (new daily cases per 100k pop with a seven day rolling average). The dashboard also has a worldwide map, but only shows the risk at the country level. The framework then delivers broad guidance on the intensity of control efforts needed based on these COVID risk levels.
This model aligns with the “Threat Level” model that AHAH has created for managing our controls based on the local situation and is shown below. It is important to note that grouping the YELLOW and GREEN levels as our NORMAL level is a suggestion and must be looked at the individual program level to determine if YELLOW warrants stricter controls at our INCREASED RISK level.