The Changing World Order

Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order, Why Nations Succeed and Fail, by Ray Dalio, Avid Reader Press 2021

First of all, author Ray Dalio did well with his Bridgewater Associates hedge fund, so well in fact that he recently acquired a Connecticut ocean-side homestead for a record $139M.  So he knows where the money is and how to use it!   Second, he tells the story of our changing world order through the numbers, and we remember what Dorian Shainin pounded into our Rath & Strong brains - "Let the data lead you!" plus his book is rich with supportive research.  And third, he writes so well and convincingly that you just have to go with it.

The timing of this book for our readers is crucial - although it first appeared in 2021, we find ourselves in the noise and conflict of the run-up to our 2024 election.  We are hourly hit with predictions, questions, charges based on politics, but fewer numbers and facts from real journalists and researchers intended to clear the decks and clarify our direction and choices.  It's going to continue to challenge our hearing - what, or whom to believe, and how to see where we stand in world dynamics.  Any expert, clear-headed help will be much appreciated!

Dalio offers help with the basics:

Countries with large savings, low debts, and a strong reserve currency can withstand economic and credit collapses better than countries that don't have much savings, have a lot of debt, and don't have a strong reserve currency.

and

...innovation and inventiveness are clearly the most powerful determinant of a country's conditions.

The author offers engaging numbers - charts and graphs - showing death rates, population changes, wars, epidemics, etc, that give our vision greater worldwide breadth. On one chart (page 476) Dalio sums up where eleven leading world countries stand on innovation (per 2021 publication date), and as we expected, the US sits in position #1, followed not too closely in a "Current Innovation and Technology Score" by China and Europe, with Russia (#9), Spain (#10) and India (#11) coming in last, although both India and China are marked by green arrows pointing upward.  

For indebtedness in these tracked counties, as well as currency moves, Dalio lays out the implications.  He points out what the US' indebtedness means in terms of the real value of money, and how that will change our different economic classes.  "If the US lost its reserve currency status, it would be in serious financial trouble."  Wisely, however, Dalio advises that because the rankings will be out of date by the time we read the book,  readers should check-in regularly at economicprinciples.org for updates. 

The Changing World Order is the kind of seldom-seen, but desperately needed fact-based guide to our very puzzling and sometimes contradictory positions.  Even in areas still undefined, there are bits of historic guideposts going back at least through the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries that add to the author's historic foundation.  Readers may question some conclusions but we cannot deny the incredible power of Dalio's research - his numbers - combined with his conclusions and warnings.   

Patricia E. Moody

FORTUNE magazine  "Pioneering Woman in Mfg" 

IndustryWeek IdeaXchange Xpert

A Mill Girl at Blue Heron Journal, on-line resource for business thought-leaders and decision-makers,  patriciaemoody@gmail.com