This Brave New World

This Brave New World - India, China, and the United States, by Anja Manuel, Simon & Schuster 2016

What are the world's most populous countries?  Anja Manuel tells us they are China and India, and she also says that in ten years or so they will be the world's largest and third largest economies.  

And yet, the US seems to spend more energy worrying about China, the China Sea, Chinese intellectual property infringement, the Chinese balance of trade, while with India, we seem to simply cruise along expecting that the emerging country economy of India will continue to grow with no threat to us.  But is that realistic?

China and India have more than 1 billion internet users; they consume the most energy and resources, and create the most pollution cays Manuel.  Certainly as trading and growth partners, these two giants deserve our complete understanding and attention.  The scaremongering Manuel observes during this presidential election year is at best misguided, and at its worst, damaging to all three countries.  

You may not as a white socks guy agree with her argument, but these points from the author are worth considering:

1.  US companies have moved blue collar jobs to cheaper markets, but punishing China would just move these jobs to the next low-wage country - not back here.  Efficiency gains in manufacturing are as much to blame for these job losses as outsourcing.  Agree?

2.  Our trade with China and India makes many products we love much less expensive.  Consequently middle-class Americans have almost thirty percent more ability to buy goods precisely because of our trade with the world.  That's if they still have paychecks to spend..

3.  American companies' exports to China and India are also supporting many jobs here at home.  Boeing, for example, sells more than a quarter of its commercial planes to China and India.  If these markets were closed to us, there would presumably be tens of thousands of layoffs as a result.  But isn't that what Boeing is supposed to do - manufacture in the US and sell globally?

4.  Chinese investment has directly created more than 80,000 jobs in America, and US exports to China indirectly support hundreds of thousands more.  The same is true for Indian investment.  But does this explain the Walmart phenomenon?

While readers may find some sections of Manuel's book hard to swallow or too closely connected to the "popular wisdom,"  the research and stats she offers are an interesting departure from current opinions.  The trick is to test the ideas against the numbers and wait and see.  

When Manuel, for instance, claims that a prosperous China and India are good for the US, its important to see the finer points below her initial claim. "...We cannot resolve the most important global issues -- such as climate change - without their cooperation."  And "a confident China and India are better than the alternative.  Both are likely to make bad decisions when they feel insecure or threatened.    

Aside from the rigorous pursuit of the author's positions, The Brave New World offers delightfully surprising glimpses into non-American thinking.  "When you see the staggering scale of China's coal mines - gray, concentric circles 30 football fields in length that make monster orange mining trucks look like toys - you feel in your gut the inexorable drive of China to do all that is necessary to maintain growth."