Big Picture Economics

Big Picture Economics, How to Navigate the New Global Economy, by Joel L. Naroff and Ron Scherer, Wiley 2014

“Economists have been put on this earth of make weather forecasters look brilliant!”  So begins this very readable book that takes us into a simplified look at financial drivers – digital and otherwise – of the global economy and our local money matters. 

The future ain’t what it used to be,” Yogi Berra -  quote the authors because they want the reader to remember above all the cost curves and stats that it’s all about context – a single number recast in a new context can make the difference between meeting your retirement goals, and buying food next week… it’s that close.  Along the way they identify the key trends to watch:

·          Global economic integration

·         Emerging developing countries’ middle class

·         Energy supply restructuring

·         Demographics

·         Technology.

Aside from their discussions about the future power of 3D printing, the author’s predictions about the power of the all-powerful consumer are shocking.  With income redistribution and uncertain growth on the march, along with the “winnowing out of the middle class,” which the authors say should have been expected!, it’s important to note their heartfelt recommendations:

·          Outsourcing manufacturing for import back into the US is a trend that is nearing its end but “that does not mean that manufacturing will return to the US en masse” because the off shoring decision depends not just on wages in the US or China, but the cost of doing business in other countries

·         New natural gas and oil supplies – fracking – will continue to improve energy costs

·         The Boomer Workforce exodus – 10,000 Boomers retire each day.  Having led the economy for some 60 years, where they decide to move to – “high-density, amenity-rich locations” will continue to impact how certain metropolitan areas develop, and will change the growth and political futures for some states.