Executive Interview:  Marina Gorbis

EXECUTIVE INTERVIEW - Marina Gorbis, futurist, on the future of manufacturing and innovation

The Mill Girl caught up with Marina Gorbis.  Her book, The Nature of The Future, Dispatches from the Socialstructed World, contains some shockingly credible predictions of where we are going, and why pieces of the future are visible - and usable - right now.1.  When we have major currency bleeps - like what's happening with the Euro in Greece, Cyprus, etc - does that speed or muddle replacing traditional financial systems with whatever comes? 

Absolutely, crisis speeds up financial innovation. Many Greek cities have created their own currencies and are using them to facilitate bartering. The city of Volos, for example, has a widely popular Local Alternative Unit to pay for such goods and services as language classes, babysitting, computer support, and home-cooked meals and to receive discounts at some local businesses. The Volos network has grown exponentially in the past year, from 50 to over 800 members. According to the NY Times, “It is one of several such groups cropping up around the country as Greeks -- squeezed by large wage cuts, tax increases and growing fears about whether they will continue to use the euro -- have looked for creative ways to cope with a radically changing economic landscape.”

 

2. Manufacturing has been slow to adopt new production methods, and 3D printing/Additive Mfg is not quite there yet technically, although it shows greatest promise. I watch what's happening in financial systems/software as years ahead of industry. What do you think are the 3 most important changes ahead for manufacturing in The Americas in the next 10 - 15 years?

 I see distributed resources and social solutions as factors re-shaping the manufacturing industry.  

First, I point out the growth of manufacturing communities and resources such as Tech Shop, which is a vibrant, creative community that provides access to tools, software and space.

Second, the expansion of crowdfunding platforms -- such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo – are already providing funding streams to sponsor the creation of new and diverse products.

Third, U.S. small scale producers can benefit from the growth of Shanzai, flexible small manufacturing networks in China, as part of the global manufacturing process.

 

3. We've been looking at healthcare systems in Blue Heron Journal and AME Target On-line. Healthcare represents 17% of the US GDP. What do you think will be the first changes to have real positive impact on healthcare financials, and what group(s) will drive them?

I see positive outcomes resulting from the Quantified Self movement, which is a community of people who continuously monitor and collect health information to share with each other and their wider network. In addition, sites such as PatientsLikeMe and CureTogether aggregate health and treatment information, enabling nearly spontaneous and continuous clinical trials. With all of this tracking, I believe that health-related data will increasingly enable medical care to move from treating diseases to prevention -- thereby hopefully lowering healthcare costs.

Marina Gorbis is executive director of the Institute for the Future (www.iftf.org), a nonprofit research and consulting organization based in Silicon Valley. She is the author of The Nature of The Future, Dispatches from the Socialstructed World, from Free Press, 2013, reviewed here in Blue Heron Journal.  She has consulted to hundreds of organizations in business, education, government, and philanthropy. Gorbis is a sought-after keynote speaker, blogger, and advisor on future organizational, technology, and social issues. She holds a master’s degree from the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley.