Resilient Omicron may still force return to CDL

Posted Jan. 28, 2022

By Tristan Hansen

Staff Editor

With the advent of the Omicron variant cases have surged, students and staff have been quarantined en masse, and a return to CDL looks more likely than ever.

Since emerging in November of 2021 the Omicron variant has spread throughout the world and prompted a dramatic rise in cases - and to a lesser extent hospitalizations and deaths - everywhere it’s touched. In October to mid-November, immediately prior to the outbreak of the Omicron variant and when Delta was still dominant, about 400,000-500,000 new cases were being recorded globally each day. In the U.S. this figure was closer to around 80,000-100,000, and in Multnomah County it was around 150. Now, however, the world is adding an astonishing average of roughly 3 million cases each day, with the U.S. alone accounting for about 500,000 to 800,000 of them and Multnomah County being responsible for around 1,000-1,500. Omicron is now by-far-and-away the predominant strain in the United States, accounting for 99.9% of all recorded Covid infections last week.

The consensus among most epidemiologists is that the key to the Omicron variant’s unprecedented transmissibility is its many mutations - 53, to be precise, over twice the number of mutations found in the Delta variant. Mutations arise whenever a virus replicates itself inside a cell and the cell creates a copy of its genes not true to the original. Often new mutations hinder a virus’ ability to spread and ultimately die out, however some improve viruses, contributing to their transmissibility. Of the Omicron variant’s 53 mutations, 30 affect the spike protein, the part of the virus that latches onto cells and is targeted by the immune system’s antibodies. 13 of these mutations have been identified as particularly curious by researchers due to their rarity in other coronaviruses, a sign which typically indicates they are detrimental to the virus. In the case of the Omicron variant, however, it’s believed that these 13 mutations actually enhance the virus’ function when acting in tandem.

One of the consequences of this has been that pre-existing vaccines have become less effective against the Omicron variant as its mutations have allowed it to more easily evade the antibodies the vaccines create. In a real-world South African study a two-dose Pfizer vaccine series was found to be only 30-40% effective at protecting against infection and around 70-75% effective at protecting against hospitalization, as compared to its protection against Delta, which hovered at around 80% and 93%, respectively. While there is less data on the Moderna vaccine’s effectiveness, it’s believed to be roughly comparable to that of the Pfizer vaccine. The outlook for the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, meanwhile, is even more discouraging. While its exact effectiveness against the Omicron variant remains unknown, a study showed that it produced virtually no antibodies at all against it—a result that certainly does not inspire confidence.

Given these dispiriting numbers experts have begun recommending people take an additional precaution to protect themselves against Covid-19 - receiving a booster shot. An English study found that receiving a booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine after completing an initial two-dose Pfizer series increased the vaccine’s effectiveness to 75% against infection and around 85% against hospitalization, while an Israeli study found that a booster dose increased antibody levels to 100 times those of a two-dose series alone. Although the benefits of receiving a booster dose may be plain to see, most people are yet to take this step. Only 26% of Americans have received a booster dose, and although this number may be substantially greater in certain regions (in Multnomah County, for instance, it’s about 47%) it still lags far behind what would be needed to achieve immunity comparable to that which was enjoyed before the Omicron variant among most Americans. Moreover, there is ongoing debate over whether administering surplus vaccine doses as booster doses is the most ethical or strategic method of distributing vaccines, with many arguing that additional doses should go to countries with low primary-dose vaccination rates instead.

“In the context of ongoing global vaccine supply constraints and inequities, broad-based administration of booster doses risks exacerbating vaccine access by driving up demand in countries with substantial vaccine coverage and diverting supply while priority populations in some countries, or in subnational settings, have not yet received a primary vaccination series,” the W.H.O. state on their website.

Fortunately, despite Omicron’s alarming transmissibility it appears to be generally less severe in those who it infects. Preliminary data has shown that Omicron infections result in hospitalization at about half the rate of Delta infections. Given the sheer number of people infected, though, hospitalizations and deaths have undergone noticeable increases nonetheless.

What has all of this meant for David Douglas? Due to rising case numbers the district has experienced severe staff shortages, which have been exacerbated by the ongoing national substitute teacher shortage. While the district has not yet made the decision to revert David Douglas High School to CDL, at one point so many teachers were missing that a return was considered inevitable. Students were being quarantined at record rates, with many classrooms being half-empty, and the matter was being discussed as an issue of “not if, but when.” And while the high school may have emerged from the extended five-day-weekend still in-person, Earl Boyles Elementary School was forced to return temporarily to CDL due to the high proportion of students and staff quarantined - 42% and 23%, respectively. Moreover, the district has made clear that a return to CDL could happen at any point in the near future.

“…There is the potential that additional schools will have to close and go into remote, online learning at some point in the coming days and weeks,” the district stated in a community update on the Jan. 12. “Our threshold for keeping a school open is if we can keep our staff absence levels below about 20-25%. If we see staff absences exceed that level at a particular school, that school will likely need to revert to distance learning.”

Across the Portland metropolitan area many other school districts have taken to temporarily closing schools or returning to distance learning, including Portland Public, Salem-Keizer, and Beaverton. At one point The Oregonian reported that Omicron had closed classrooms for 1 in 3 Portland area students.

In light of the possibility of returning to distance learning, The Highlander distributed a survey to students to determine how the student body fared in distance learning last year and gauge opinions on the potential of returning to CDL this year. A total of 248 students, or just under 10% of the student body, have responded thus far. By no means was the survey or the data it collected perfect or immune from criticism or scrutiny. It’s entirely possible, nay, likely, that some students may not have responded in earnest. There may have been some degree of selection bias present in that it was taken almost exclusively by students who regularly check their emails - a demographic which it stands to reason is likely more responsible and scrupulous than the student body as a whole. There may also have been some flaws in the survey’s design. Despite the survey being openly anonymous, for instance, some students may have been reluctant to be entirely forthcoming with some of their responses. However, we believe the findings have considerable value nonetheless in allowing us to determine attitudes towards distance learning among those most impacted - students.

Of those surveyed, 50.2% indicated that their experience with distance learning last year was worse than their experience with in-person learning, while 24.3% indicated it was better and 25.5% indicated it was the same. 53.3% percent said their mental health was negatively impacted, while 23.3% indicated it was positively impacted by distance learning and 23.6% indicated their mental health wasn’t impacted by distance learning at all. Of those who believe their mental health was negatively impacted the most common reason cited was social isolation (34.1%), followed by feeling overwhelmed (21.4%) and having to spend more time at home (12.7%). Among those who indicated their mental health was positively impacted the most common reasons cited were less intense schoolwork/lower expectations from teachers (38.8%), more freedom over self time management (34.1%), and freedom from an overstimulating environment (14%).

Many students surveyed stated that they struggled to stay motivated and engaged during distance learning. One student in particular said, “I personally cannot create a working environment at home and have a hard time engaging when I can't communicate face to face. I also had very low motivation to get up because it didn't feel tangible and there was nothing holding me accountable except for myself.”

Others felt that the shorter class periods weren’t suited to the classes they were taking, with one student saying, “When taking multiple AP classes, having short class periods does not give enough time to learn the material.”

Of those who had more positive experiences, however, many said CDL enhanced their learning by allowing them to be more organized and less distracted. “I believe my experience was positive because distance-learning allowed me to be in my own space and away from the distractions that come with being in the classroom,” one student said.

Another student said, “In some ways, it was better for me. It allowed me to be better organized, and was way less stressful. I was able to focus on interests and hobbies outside of school. But the sacrifice of my social life was hard.”

On the topic of learning in particular, 54.4% of those surveyed indicated their learning was hindered by CDL, with 23.7% indicating their learning had been enhanced by distance learning and 22% indicating their learning wasn’t impacted whatsoever. Among those who believe distance learning negatively impacted their learning, 42.8% attributed this to difficulty focusing, 13.3% blamed associated mental health issues, and 9.2% cited ease of cheating. Of those who said CDL positively impacted their learning 47.9% stated they were more comfortable learning online while 38.8% cited more opportunities for self-motivated learning as the primary reason.

Many participants in the survey stated that they didn’t believe teachers actually cared about whether students were engaged and actively learning, with one saying, “My teachers didn’t care what people did in class, as long as we showed up. I never learned a thing because class wasn’t fun, we watched the teacher talk and we were on our phones during class because the teacher couldn’t see us. There were some classes I learned from because it was interactive, but most my classes were just listening to the teacher. I’m failing math now because I didn’t learn a thing last year.”

Others believed that the expectation students have their cameras on was detrimental to their learning, a sentiment encapsulated by one response which read, “Having cameras on seemed to impact me negatively because I felt like I had to look good and pay attention to what I'm doing on camera. I was more focused on how I was appearing and presenting myself on camera than actually learning. Then, when we first got back to in person, it was an adjustment with masks and having to actually speak more than one sentence.”

Those who had more positive experiences, however, responded that distance learning made teachers more accessible. “I was focusing in all classes so to me, it didn't impact [me] much. Distance-learning is good as we can get into breakout rooms with teachers, communicate with them and not interrupt class lessons. Also we have office hours after classes so we can get help with homework or other things better and faster. When we are not using google meet anymore, it’s a bit difficult because teachers have many mails so when we ask them any problem, they can’t answer us right away,” one student said.

Some stated that it was easier to share and engage with teachers during distance learning, with one student saying, “Some people including me feel more comfortable to speak up and share out with the class when we’re behind a screen rather than being there in person.”

It’s been widely recognized among students and staff that cheating was widespread last year, and the results of our survey bear this out. Nearly half of all students (49.4%) responded that they cheated last year, with 37.9% indicating that they cheated “a little” and 11.5% indicating that they cheated a lot. Among those who did cheat 54.5% responded that distance learning made it easier and 80.1% indicated that they would not have otherwise done so during in-person learning. While we don’t have baseline data on the incidence of cheating during in-person learning, from these numbers it can still be reasonably inferred that cheating was more prevalent last year due to CDL than it would have otherwise been in the absence of CDL.

On this matter, one student responded, “Cheating went from an option to the rule. By the end of year I was conscious for about half of my classes, cheated on just about every test and was just waiting until it was over and we could go back to in-person.”

Another student echoed this, saying, “Cheating was easy because you could just google search a bunch of things without having to worry about getting in trouble, so, added that I had a grinding addiction to a game I basically cheated on a bunch of tests and quizzes with google searches. (Nowadays I don't feel the need to ever cheat due to me reviewing over class subjects and whatnot.)”

When asked directly about their thoughts on the prospects of transitioning back to CDL students were split, with 38.8% of students stating they had negative feelings about potentially returning to CDL, 34.3% having positive feelings, and 26.9% being indifferent.

Those who favored a return to CDL generally stated they felt it would be safer given current Covid trends and circumstances. “I think doing what's best for the people is more important,” one student said. “If COVID-19 continues to spread and we stay in person it just feels foolish to continue to stay in person risking so many lives.”

“We are in the middle of a pandemic, and it is not getting better. We have more cases than we did when covid first started, and you guys aren't doing anything about it,” another student said. “In asl, I am pressed shoulder to shoulder with other people. There is absolutely no social distancing. It is completely ridiculous, and you have many staff refusing to wear masks properly, which also allows students to not wear theirs properly. Its ridiculous and I feel unsafe everyday.”

Others said they simply prefer distance learning, with one respondent stating, “After a year and a half of learning online, I got used to it. Now, after having to transition back to being in-person, it's been a bit difficult for me and I've found myself becoming unmotivated, lazy, exhausted, and burnt out.”

Many students who had negative feelings towards the thought of returning to CDL stated that they had made progress with their mental health and expressed concern that all this progress would be lost if school were to revert to distance learning. One student said, “I have had a hard time with my mental health this year. I think finally having a network of friends, and socializing with them daily, is really improving my mind set. If I were to go back online, all of that would be thrown away, and I know my mind set would return to a really dark place.”

Another student expressed fear that they’d lose their stellar grades if school were to revert to a distance learning model, stating “I'm scared that I’m going to fail all of the classes I'm doing so good in, I've worked so hard for all A's but going into distance learning is going to change that.”

Respondents who indicated that they felt indifferent towards the prospect of reverting to distance learning generally stressed that the amount of time spent in CDL was important, with one saying, “I just feel indifferent about it. If it’s only for a few weeks I will be fine with it. But if it’s for the rest of the year I know it will affect me negatively.”

What can be made of all of this? Despite no consensus being reached among students on their feelings towards the prospect of reverting to CDL, a majority indicated that they were negatively impacted by it last year in at least some capacity - be it due to the ease of cheating, difficulty staying engaged, social isolation, shorter class periods, or a myriad of other potential factors. District administrators should keep the experiences of these students in mind when making consequential decisions because, after all, students are the ones who will be most impacted. Furthermore, teachers should recognize the unique difficulties students faced last year and the lingering consequences these have had on their education and mental wellbeing and be more considerate, compassionate, and lenient in response. Many students are suffering due to factors completely outside of their control and responding with rigid deadlines and inflexible policies achieves nothing beyond fostering frustration and disdain towards the education system and further contributing towards the stress that is inherent to such uncertain times.

None of this is to say that the opinions and feelings of those who remember CDL more fondly shouldn’t be recognized or celebrated. While clearly in the minority, there are still a significant number of students who reported their experiences with distance learning being better than their experiences with in-person learning, and there is perhaps much that we can learn from their insights. In any case, their feelings and experiences are just as valid as those who came to the opposite conclusion. Additionally, the sincere and well-founded concerns of those students who question the safety of remaining in-person should be centered in any conversation over how to best navigate our current situation as well. Ultimately, they’re correct - there are legitimate safety concerns associated with remaining in-person, and when coming to a decision on how to proceed these concerns must be given equal weight and consideration as those of the students who rightfully fear their grades and mental health will decline upon a return to CDL. The task of weighing the concerns of some students against those of others is a daunting one sure to make anyone uneasy, especially when the stakes are this high. Such is the nature of the difficult and unprecedented times we live in.