"Uncertainty is a personal matter; it is not the uncertainty but your uncertainty."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"Almost all thinking people agree that you should not have probability 1 (or 0) for any event, other than one demonstrable by logic, like 2 x 2 = 4."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"It is dangerous to attach probability zero to anything other than a logical impossibility."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"It is not surprising that in talking about uncertainty we should lean heavily on facts, just as the court of law does when interrogating witnesses. Facts form a sort of bedrock on which we can build the shifting sands of uncertainty."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"In my opinion, it helps enormously to know why something is true, rather than being told it is true, for why should you believe me? Never believe anything on the authority of a single person but seek confirmation - and reason is the best confirmation."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"I believe that almost all important, useful ideas are simple. Peter Whittle has recently put it nicely in an autobiographical essay. "If a piece of work is heavy and complicated then it is wrong." … Some writers feel that to express their ideas in simple terms is degrading. Some use complexity to disguise the paucity of their material. In fact, simplicity is a virtue and when, as here, it is both original and useful, it can represent a real advance in knowledge."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"In teaching there can be too much emphasis on certainty and a proper appreciation of uncertainty is to be encouraged."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"It is not merely a question of calculating with probabilities but also one of relating the ingredients of your probability statements to reality. You do not need to think only about p(E|K) but also about the precise nature of E and K."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"There are some things that you know to be true, and others that you know to be false; yet, despite this extensive knowledge that you have, there remain many things whose truth or falsity is not known to you. We say that you are uncertain about them. You are uncertain, to varying degrees, about everything in the future; much of the past is hidden from you; and there is a lot of the present about which you do not have full information. Uncertainty is everywhere and you cannot escape from it."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"Bayesian statistics is based on one, simple idea: the only satisfactory description of uncertainty is by means of probability."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"Good theory and good practice go hand in hand. Theory that does not have practical application is under-developed. Practice that is not supported by a sound theory is often subjective, misleading and inconsistent."
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
“Generally there is Stigler's law of Eponymy that says that a scientific notion is never attributed to the right person; in particular, the law is not due to Stigler.”
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)
"I had thought that if something was written in a book, it was correct. That is not so, even in mathematics.
There are mistakes"
—Dennis Lindley (1923-2013)