Bent Flyvbjerg

infrastructure space shrinker power wealth status

“Infrastructure is the great space shrinker, and power, wealth and status increasingly belong to those who know how to shrink space, or know how to benefit from space being shrunk.”

― Bent Flyvbjerg

technology Apollo megaproject cost overrun realistic risk cost

“Also, the technologically high-risk Apollo aerospace programme is considered a classic success story of megaproject planning and implementation. The cost overrun on this US$21 billion project was only 5 per cent. Few know, however, that the original budget estimate included US$8 billion of contingencies. By allowing for risk with foresight, the programme avoided ending up in the type of large cost overrun that destabilises many major projects during implementation. The Apollo approach, with its realistic view of risks, costs and contingencies, should be adopted in more major projects.”

― Bent Flyvbjerg

incentive cost estimate overrun intentional

“strong incentives and weak disincentives for cost underestimation and thus for cost overrun may have taught project promoters what there is to learn, namely that cost underestimation and overrun pay off. If this is the case, cost overrun must be expected and it must be expected to be intentional.”

― Bent Flyvbjerg

uncertainty estimate viability predict future power interest

“Uncertainty in estimating viability is related in this way not only to the innate difficulty of predicting the future but also to power and interests.”

― Bent Flyvbjerg

cost underestimate overrun strategic project

“Cost underestimation and overrun have not decreased over the past seventy years. No learning seems to take place; • Cost underestimation and overrun cannot be explained by error and seem to be best explained by strategic misrepresentation, namely lying, with a view to getting projects started.”

― Bent Flyvbjerg

wait longer expensive cost project

"The longer you wait the more expensive it get"

― Bent Flyvbjerg

throw more money variable project cost

"It means you just have to throw more money at the thing to get it finished... The only variable you have is to spend more money."

― Bent Flyvbjerg

iron law megaproject over budget time cost

"The Iron law of megaprojects:

"Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again."

― Bent Flyvbjerg

survival un-fittest project cost optimistic

“the survival of the un-fittest:

the least deserving projects get built precisely because their cost-benefit estimates are so misleadingly optimistic".

― Bent Flyvbjerg

megaprojects Vienam policy easy begin expensive stop cost

Megaprojects are the ‘Vietnams’ of policy and management: easy to begin and difficult and expensive to stop. ”

― Bent Flyvbjerg