UFC on FOX 6 predictions - James Scott

Post date: 25-Jan-2013 16:59:31

Alright guys, well here I am back again for some more predictions. Before I get onto this weekends UFC on Fox 6 event, let’s take a look how I got on last week.

Much like the event itself, my predictions and gambling tips were definitely somewhat of a mixed bag.

Regarding my picks, I went 6-4 for the card as a whole. That would have been 7-4 but for the monumental screw up which led to the Yuri Alcantara fight being rendered a no contest. As a no contest, the fight technically never happened, so neither did the pick.

On the betting front, if you followed my tips, you would have won nothing and lost nothing. You’d have broken dead even. Had Tavares won his fight, we’d have hit a 7/1 jackpot but hey ho, no harm done.

I am still upset that C.B Dolloway won.

So, on to this Saturday’s event.

Prelims

Simeon Thoresen (2/5) v David Mitchell (15/8) – well, nothing like an exciting, highly anticipated fight between two top quality fighters to start a card. And this fight is nothing like that. Mitchell has been a record padder since he joined the UFC and Thoresen has yet to set the world on fire either, going 1-1 in the UFC. The loser of this fight is probably going to get cut. Mitchell has been bested by two relatively good opponents in his UFC career (better fighters than Thoresen anyway), so I don’t think the odds are necessarily fair for this fight, but I think Thoresen (15 of his 17 wins have come by submission) is capable of grappling his way to a decision here. Thoresen by Decision

Rafael Natal (2/5) v Sean Spencer (15/8) – Spencer is a promotional newcomer and has no Wikipedia page AND is taking the fight on short notice, so this is a pretty easy pick to make. Natal by Decision

Pascal Krauss (2/5) v Mike Stumpf (15/8) – the old Wikipedia rule coming into play again here. Both these guys lost their last UFC fight. However, I see more upside in Krauss and a loss to John Hathaway is nothing to be ashamed of. 3 fights in, and still not a fight that I would feel comfortable betting on, given the odds. Krauss by Sub

Mike Russow (8/15) v Shawn Jordan (6/4) – now we’re talking! I am a bit of a Mike Russow fanboy, partially because he is a member of team DeathClutch and partially because of his grinding fight style. Before getting absolutely smashed by Werdum in a round, Russow demonstrated that he is a good heavyweight gatekeeper who eats up lower level guys like Jordan. I think Russow will take Jordan down at will and have his way with him in a pretty comfortable fight. The decent enough odds on Russow make him an excellent addition to any accumulator too. Russow by Decision

Ryan Bader (1/5) v Vladimir Matyushenko (7/2) – now we’re REALLY talking. Two of my favourite fighters clashing here in this light heavyweight tilt. Firstly – the odds are ridiculous. Ryan Bader should not be at 1/5 against anyone, never mind Matyushenko. I am not touching this fight from a gambling point of view with a barge pole. Both have sort of faltered against truly elite opposition whilst making short work of lower level guys, so this is a perfect match up, and a pretty pivotal one in both men’s careers. Who will be resigned to being a gatekeeper for life, and who will have one

more crack at climbing the 205 ladder? As a fun fact, both these guys recently KO’d Jason Brilz in quick, devastating fashion, so not much use looking at common opponents to get a gauge on this one. I’ll pick youth over experience here, and say Bader has too much for the Janitor. Bader by Decision

Clay Guida (2/5) v Hatsu Hioki (15/8) – this card is so stacked already and we’re still in the prelim section! I can’t wait to see Guida in his new home at 145 and I think he is gonna show us why he was so populat at 155 before his howler of a fight with Maynard. I see him managing to do whatever he wants to do with Hioki, and at the betting odds, he looks like good accumulator fodder too. Guida by Decision

TJ Grant (10/11) v Matt Wiman (10/11) – this fight is such a coin toss. Before I even saw the betting odds, I thought it was impossible to predict and sure enough, the bookies can’t split them either! I think Grant is more powerful than Wiman on the feet and has the better wrestling of the two. I can see Wiman stuffing a few takedowns here and there and landing the heavier strikes on his way to a decision. Grant by Decision

All in all, the prelims, with the exception of the first three fights, are really good on this card and all worth watching. I am particularly looking forward to the Guida v Hioki fight in which I expect to see the Guida of old come back and do his thing. I do seem to have predicted a lot of decision, which hopefully I am wrong about.

Main Card

Eric Koch (8/13) v Ricardo Lamas (5/4) – this is a fight which could very well decide the next contender for the Featherweight title. Both guys are on multi fight winning streaks against some of the best in the division and this is a tough one to call. Koch is the better technical striker, but I look at some of Lamas’ recent work and can’t help but fancy the underdog here. Lamas is definitely the most underrated fighter in the featherweight division and I think this fight is a chance for him to show the world he is the real deal. That, and the fact that I can’t pick the favourite in every fight! Lamas by Decision

Anthony Pettis (4/5) v Donald Cerrone (evens) – for me, the most anticipated fight on the card. I’ll bet some of you are getting pissed off that I keep predicting decisions. Well, unfortunately, I am going to do so again. Cerrone – never knocked out. Pettis – never stopped. These guys are two elite strikers and this is going to be a stand up war that I think will go the distance. Question is, who is the better striker, and will either man utilise grappling? Both these guys have been pretty vocal saying they will not shoot, which means one of them definitely will. I’ll predict Pettis is the first to shoot, but I also think he will more than hold his own on the feet. I think Pettis will land slightly more on the feet and do what the stubborn Cerrone will refuse to do, and shoot for the occasional takedown to mix things up. Pettis by Decision

Glover Teixeira (1/3) v Rampage Jackson (12/5) – in my view, the true main event of this card. Firstly, these odds are ridiculous. Teixeira is yet to beat a truly big name, so to make him 1/3 against a former champion is ridiculous. I might be absolutely mental, but I am going to predict that Rampage catches the hittable Teixeira and leaves the UFC with a bang. Again, I’ll probably end up looking like an idiot, but one can’t help when one has a gut feeling about something. Not confident to put money on it or anything, but I think Rampage will turn up motivated and looking to make a statement – NOTE: since I am writing this before weigh ins, if Rampage misses weight, my prediction changes to Teixeira by T/KO . Rampage by T/KO

Demetrious Johnson (4/9) v John Dodson (7/4) – the first defense for the Flyweight champ Johnson is an intriguing one. The one threat Dodson poses is his power, but I think Dodson is just a less good version of Joseph Benavidez, who D.J handled comfortably. I think Johnson uses his speed to get in and out, before overwhelming a gassed Dodson with takedowns in the title rounds. Johnson by Decision

Well what a card! All 4 main card fights are genuinely interesting bouts and I can’t wait for Saturday. The two fights that interest me the most are definitely the Cerrone v Pettis fight and the Rampage v Teixeira fight. Say what you like about Rampage these days, but when he fights, it still gets me excited.

Betting

So, where is the fantasy £20 going this week?

£10 on Russow and Guida to both win at 1.15/1 – that is this weeks “safe bet” which should cover for any losses from the later bets

£5 on Grant and Lamas to win at 3.3/1

£3 on Pettis to win by Decision, Johnson to win by Decision and Rampage to win at 14.5/1

£2 on Rampage to win via KO in the 1st round at 7.5/1, because PRIDE NEVER DIES

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