UFC 158 Break down by Jimbo Slice

Post date: 16-Mar-2013 08:41:37

Alright chaps, it’s been a while since we spoke. Quick update on how I am doing. On my picks I am 36/31 which is not very good. I need to raise my game. I realise now that fantasy betting is not the way forward as I get to oreckless with my advice. So from now I am doing something new. I am going to only put bets I am actually putting on (I’ll put screenshots in the next article after each event to prove it) and I will say how much I can turn £100 into over the year – kinda like what New York rick does on the MMA hour.

Prelims

Reuben Duran (8/11) v George Roop (11/10) - this fight is opening the Facebook prelims; not normally an area where quality fights can be found. However, I am intrigued by this fight, mostly because I am interested to see how the 6’1 George Roop fares in the bantamweight division. Roop does not have the most impressive record (12-9) but it is true to say he has fought high quality competition. Even though he has lost pretty much every time he has faced the elite, I have seen glimmers of brilliance from the striker (namely his head kick KO of the Korean Zombie). Duran is somewhat of an unknown quantity to me but I think the 7 inches in height he is giving up to Roop here is going to be his undoing here and I see Roop using his striking to win this one. Roop by T/KO

TJ Dillashaw (1/6) v Issei Tamura (4/1) – the odds here say it all. This is the easiest fight to predict so far this year. Dillashaw is an absolute boss and one of my favourite bantamweights. I love his bullying wrestling style and he is going to absolutely ragdoll Tamura. I am not even sure why this fight was made – Dillashaw is on a 2 fight win streak, Tamura is coming off a loss and his only victory in the UFC was against Tiequan Zhang (easily the worst fighter currently in the UFC). Dillashaw can win this anyway he wants but I’ll go for Dillashaw by Sub

Rick Story (1/4) v Quinn Mulhern (3/1) – this one is eerily similar to the fight before it in the sense that I expect the lopsided favourite Story to overwhelm his opponent with a grappling based attack. Admittedly, Story has been going through a bit of a rough patch recently, but people need to have a memory longer than a few fights. He is still the guy who beat Johny Hendricks and Thiago Alves in a row. He might not be the fighter many expected him to become, but he is still good enough to outwrestle someone like Mulhern, who earned his spot in the UFC by going on a winning streak on Strikeforce Undercards against unknown commodities. Tough UFC debut for Mulhern, who might be looking for a job after this one, because I don’t expect it to be pretty. Story by Decision

John Makdessi (1/1) v Daron Cruickshank (4/5) – after two fights which I expect to be grappling orientated, this one will almost certainly satisfy those who prefer their fights to take place on the feet. Both these guys are pretty dynamic strikers coming off of wins. Some of you might remember Cruickshank from his time on TUF although he did not make the impact on the show that he has made since joining the UFC proper, knocking out Henry Martinez with a vicious head kick in his official debut. I think Cruickshank’s more well roundedness (is that a word) will be the difference in this one, but it’s not a prediction I make with any great confidence. Cruickshank by Decision

Jordan Mein (4/11) v Dan Miller (21/10) – much to my shock, the majority of the Strikeforce import v UFC veteran matches have actually gone the way of the Strikeforce guys. This is one of the few times I am actually expecting the Strikeforce guy to pick up the win. The book is pretty much out there on Dan Miller – he is decently well rounded and near impossible to finish. If you are anywhere near being a top 15, top 20 guy, you will beat Miller in a decision. The question is, is Mein in that category. I think so. Even though he is only 23, he is one of these slew of Canadian guys who have been fighting since they were just 16 –his very first fight at the age of 16 was against none other than Rory Macdonald. Never let it be said that my articles are not loaded with QUALITY trivia! I think Mein has a lot of talent and I think he is going to show it against the always game Miller. Must say though, surprised to see a relatively unproven commodity as such a heavy betting favourite. Mein by Decision

Darren Elkins (4/9) v Antonio Carvalho (7/4) – grinding grappler does his thing part 3! Jokes aside, there does seem to be a bit of a buzz around Elkins, namely because of the 4 fight win streak he has quietly put together since dropping to the featherweight division. I like Elkins, but upon further inspection, the streak does not really hold up, as the first two fights on the streak were a decision that was a robbery in his favour, and a win against our old friend Tiequan Zhang, which doesn’t really count. However, even viewing Elkins as on a 2 fight win streak, I still expect him to win here. Elkins recent win over Diego Brandao was impressive and showed he can survive through adversity, and I don’t think Carvalho is going to put him in more trouble than Brandao did. Carvalho is the level of guy that Elkins has been beating and I see Elkins increasing his streak to 5 and finally getting some recognition and a top 10 opponent next time out. Elkins by Decision

Patrick Cote (4/7) v Bobby Voelker (11/8) – ironically, one of the least interesting prelim bouts in my view is “headlining” the prelim section of the card. I swore I would never pick Cote to win a fight after his performance against Cung Le, BUT he is fighting Bobby Voelker. 3 of Voelker’s last 4 fights were a trilogy against Roger Bowling over a series of Strikeforce Challengers cards where Voelker went 2-1 – not the most outstanding resume I have seen of a UFC debutant. If you told me that an ex UFC title contender at middleweight was dropping to welterweight and fighting Voelker, I would 99 times out of 100 be absolutely certain Voelker would lose. I would 99.9 times out of 100 tell you to bet your house on the former UFC title challenger if he was at odds of 4/7. But it’s Cote, so this is really a coin toss. I think the UFC likes Cote, and wants him to do well, so I’ll give Cote one last final chance. Cote by T/KO

All in all the prelims are a mixed bag. For the grappling fans, the fights featuring Elkins, Dillashaw and Story should be enjoyable. Striking enthusiasts should be kept happy by the Roop v Duran and Cruickshank v Makdessi fights. The other two fights don’t particularly peak my interest but hey ho, for prelims, this card has done pretty well, and I’ll be glued to Facebook come midnight on Saturday night!

Main Card

Mike Ricci (4/11) v Colin Fletcher (21/10) – both these guys were runners up in their respective seasons of TUF. Ricci for me was a lot more impressive, especially considering he was fighting, and knocking guys out, at welterweight, and this fight will be contested in the lightweight class. I think Ricci is better in all areas than Freakshow, but if by some mishap, Fletcher is dominating the striking, I think Ricci is well rounded, and smart, enough to secure takedowns and control Fletcher on the ground. Ricci by Decision

Nick Ring (4/5) v Chris Camozzi (1/1) – two generic, middle of the road middleweights meet in this clash, which if nothing else, proves that UFC 158 is a three fight show, as opposed to “stacked”. There is really not much to see here, and if you are gonna take a break during the main card, this is definitely the time to do it. I’ll go for Ring as apart from being battered by Tim Boestch, he is undefeated and a victory over Court McGee last time out is pretty impressive. This might be the fight I have the least interest in of the whole card. Ring by Decision

Jake Ellenberger (4/7) v Nate Marquardt (5/4) – NOW we’re talking! The first of a tri-fecta of superb welterweight fights is certainly a tough one to call. Marquardt is coming off of a loss to Tarec Saffiedine where he was leg kicked for 25 minutes, but I don’t think that loss has too much bearing on this fight. Ellenberger is a completely different fighter to Saffiedine. I actually think a comparison between Ellenberger and Marquardt’s last opponent before Saffiedine, Tyron Woodley, is more appropriate. Both are very heavy handed, very powerful and good wrestlers. Marquardt managed to defeat Woodley and I think, in an upset, he will defeat Ellenberger. Saffiedine aside, Marquardt has only lost to middleweights who can put him on his back and keep him there (think Chael Sonnen and Yushin Okami). Now he is fighting at welterweight and I don’t think Ellenberger is capable of holding him down for three rounds. Could Ellenberger win the first round? He most probably will, as he seems to do in all of his fights. But Ellenberger is prone to gassing out and if he does so in this fight, Marquardt will make him pay. The question here is can Marquardt weather an early Ellenberger storm, which will inevitably come? I think so. Marquardt has only been knocked out once in his career, so I am picking him to survive an early scare before dominating and actually finishing Ellenberger in the third; similar to Ellenberger’s fight against Kampmann. This is a decent shout if you are looking to bet on an underdog. Marquardt by T/KO

Johny Hendricks (8/11) v Carlos Condit (11/10) – for me, the most interesting fight on the card. Stylistically, I think this fight is fascinating. Both these guys are knockout artists (regardless of what Diaz fanboys will tell you about Condit, he has one of the highest finishing percentages in MMA) with Condit having a more diverse striking arsenal and a lot more movement against the seemingly unstoppable left hook of Johny Hendricks. I actually think that Condit will be apt enough on the feet to jump in and out of range landing strikes and avoid the left hook (although if he does get caught with it, that just makes him like everyone else) so the question here is what about the wildcard, Hendricks wrestling? Can Hendricks use his wrestling effectively if the striking is not going his way? I am going to say no. I think Condit will be able to pick Hendricks apart on the feet and fight very similar to the way he fought against Diaz and I’m gonna pick another upset here. I don’t think Condit will knock out Hendricks but I see him outlanding the bearded one over three rounds, rendering the welterweight title a mess in the process. If you do think that Hendricks will KO Condit (pretty logical, seeing as how he has knocked everyone else out under the sun), you’ll get a price of 9/4 on that one, but I’ll fly against logic. Condit by Decision

Georges st Pierre (1/5) v Nick Diaz (4/1) – the build up to this fight has been amazing, but I don’t expect too much from the actual fight. Stylistically, this is just a horrible fight for Diaz. I actually think GSP is a better striker, but if Diaz is making GSP uncomfortable on the feet, GSP will just plant him on his back. Diaz doesn’t really have KO power, so if he is starting to land, GSP will take him down before he is in danger. GSP is not going to gas, or be overwhelmed by Diaz’s relentless boxing attack and GSP is not going to be subbed on the ground. Standard GSP fight here, with hopefully some in cage antics! GSP by Decision

Overall, the last three fights on this main card are the reason for watching this card. No MMA fan is missing this card, so you don’t need me to sell you on it.

Betting

As discussed earlier, I am not gonna do fantasy bets anymore. I am going to put my money where my mouth is and try and turn my own £100 into as much as possible. Here are the bets I have on this card. I actually think this card is really hard from a betting perspective so I’m gonna play it pretty safe and not bet too much from the pot first time out

£4 on Dillashaw, Story, Ricci, GSP to win at 1.4/1

£3 on Condit to win by decision at 9/4

£3 on Condit and Marquardt to win at 3.7/1

Jimbo Slice