The Only Pix That Matter – UFC 162 Edition

Post date: 05-Jul-2013 11:31:42

The Only Pix That Matter – UFC 162 Edition

UFC 162 is the card of the year. It’s that simple. A ton of well matched close fights and a main event that will guarantee history will be made. On with the pix!

Prelims

Mike Pierce (1/6) v David Mitchell (4/1) - it is not often I actively look forward to the opening fight of a card, but I certainly am on this occasion. I am a big Mike Pierce fan. He is a top welterweight and it is a disgrace that he is relegated to Facebook prelims. His only losses in the UFC were all decisions defeats to Josh Koscheck, Jon Fitch and Jonny Hendricks. Hardly any shame in that. Do you really see David Mitchell as a name that looks like it would fit in on that list? No, me neither. Pierce is a grinding wrestler with a granite chin. Mitchell has a takedown defence rate of 7 (yes SEVEN) %. This isn't even a contest. I see Pierce taking Mitchell down at will and doing whatever he pleases on the ground and extending his win streak to 4 inside the Octagon. Hopefully getting a step up in competition and card placement next time too. Pierce by Decision

Seth Baczynski (1/3) v Brian Melancon (9/4) - and we're back down to Facebook normality. Can't expect every FB fight to have Mike Pierce calibre fighters I suppose. Baczynski is coming off a loss (to the aforementioned Mike Pierce none the less, even though he is placed higher up the card - go figure!) and Melancon is a UFC newcomer. You know me, I never back UFC newcomers and this one is no different. Baczynski has won more than he's lost in the UFC and is pretty handy with submissions and overall quite well rounded. Melancon went 1-1 in Strikeforce and 0-1 in Bellator. Looks to me like he is only getting a UFC fight due to a contractual obligation. Baczynski by Submission

Edson Barboza (1/6) v Rafaello Oliviera (4/1) - this my friends is what we call in the pro wrasslin' business a "squash match". A match booked purely for the purpose of making one of the fighters look good. Barboza has pretty sensational striking and apart from a slip up against Jamie Varner, he’s looked pretty good in his UFC tenure. Oliviera has lost much more than he's won in the UFC, is coming off a year long layoff and, perhaps most tellingly, was TKO'd by Yves Edwards in his fight before last. That doesn't bode well for him. Barboza by T/KO

Gabriel Gonzaga (4/9) v Dave Herman (7/4) - normally I need to study in detail the records and past fights of fighters to make a pick. No need here. Gonzaga is a legit heavyweight with powerful hands and excellent submissions who has been in the cage with the best of them. Dave Herman - ummm, not so much. Gonzaga has issues with powerful strikers and I don't see Herman as a powerful striker. Gonzaga could win a stand up battle, but I sense this will go to the ground and then it will be a very bad night for Herman, despite the fact he "doesn't believe in BJJ". I am honestly stunned at the odds here - I expected Gonzaga to be a much heavier favourite with the bookies than he is - definitely money to be made here! Gonzaga by Sub

Norman Parke (8/15) v Kazuki Tokudome (6/4) - this is the first (of many) close fight of the night. Pretty difficult to call this one, which makes it pretty intriguing for me. Both fighters are pretty similar - good wrestling, decent enough hands, good all rounders. Both are 1-0 in the UFC, Parke more memorably as he beat Freakshow Fletcher to win TUF: The Smashes. I am inclined to side with Parke here as he has been training with a world class camp at Alliance and I think his wrestling/judo might be a touch better than Tokudome. I fear a lot of this fight may be spent against the cage as the two may cancel each other out for the majority of the takedown battles. Parke by Decision

Andrew Craig (8/13) v Chris Leben (5/4) - like it's predecessor, and most of the main card, this one is a tough one to call. It really shouldn't be - it wasn't so long ago Chris Leben was knocking out Wanderlei Silva in 32 seconds! Leben is a legend, one of the TUF originals and he has been in some of the best fights in UFC history. Surely, some guy called Andrew Craig should be no match!? Unfortunately, Leben has looked a shadow of his former self lately, being battered by Mark Munoz before losing a horrendous fight to Derek Brunson. You know his career is on the down when he is not even the bookie's favourite against Andrew Craig, who is 2-1 in the UFC, one of those victories being a hail mary headkick comeback in a fight he was losing. I just can't pick Andrew Craig to win a fight and heck, we're all entitled to a heart over head pick now and again! I expect Leben to show that he is getting back to his former self. I think he'll be able to keep it standing and win the fight on the feet. Craig has proven tough to put away though, so I don't expect a finish. I really hope I am right about the real Chris Leben showing up, as if the atrocity that fought Derek Brunson shows up, Craig will win and Leben will be out of a job! Leben by Decision

Overall, this is perhaps the best set of prelims I have seen for a card in a long time. Sure, there might not be too much star power, however, there is a little something for everyone here. The Parke v Tokudome and Leben v Craig fights are well matched, legitimately close and interesting fights which are difficult to predict. For fans of submissions, the Gonzaga v Herman fight will be enjoyable. Striking aficionados will enjoy watching Edson Barboza wreck shop on an overmatched opponent. Fans of grinding wrestling (well, just me then) will enjoy watching Mike Pierce do his thing. The Baczynski fight is the only one which leaps off the page as uninteresting, and for a set of prelims to only have one weak fight is quite the accomplishment in this day and age!

Main Card

Cub Swanson (2/5) v Dennis Siver (15/8) - holy sh*t - this is how you kick off a PPV! This battle between two top ten featherweights who both love to keep the fight on the feet is sure to be a barnburner (I refuse to use the word WAR about a fight - lame.) Both these guys are really good strikers. Siver will have the power edge (how he makes 145 is beyond me and indeed, beyond all of science. he is the featherweight Brock Lesnar) but Swanson for me has the technique and all important speed edge. I love Siver, but I do believe that if this fight stays on the feet, Swanson will dominate (his recent form certainly indicates that). I think if Siver is gonna win here, he will have to make use of his size and ragdoll Swanson for some takedowns. Which he very well could do. This one is a coinflip. I'll take Swanson as I see this fight taking place mostly on the feet and recently Swanson has displayed a lot more on the feet than Siver, scoring knockouts and dropping opponents, whereas Siver has been winning decisions. I would love Siver to win though as he is a legitimate beast. This will be a great fight - don't miss it! Swanson by T/KO

Mark Munoz (8/11) v Tim Boetsch (11/10) - continuing the trend of well matched, close fights, this time in the middleweight division. Both these guys are pretty similar - wrestlers at heart with some power, if not technique, in their striking. Despite Munoz's credentials, his takedown percentage in MMA has not been the best. In fact, his wrestling for MMA is actually vastly overrated. I like Boetsch's chances to keep the fight on the feet. I see this one taking place mostly on the feet and from there it really is a toss up. Sometimes you jsut have to go with your heart - I really like Tim Boetsch and I really don't like Mark Munoz (mostly due to the fact that before he got smashed by Weidman, he was the most over rated fighter in the history of fighting!). An interesting fight though that I am looking forward to. Boetsch by Decision

Tim Kennedy (8/11) v Roger Gracie (11/10) - a middleweight fight that is close and could go either way? I feel like we've been here before. Quite recently infact! This one is a bit easier to break down on paper. If it stays on the feet, I would give an edge to Kennedy. If it goes to the ground - well, you don't need me to tell to you. However, people who break down fights in that way, and then don't specifically nail their colours to the mast are spineless fence sitters. Giving various ways the fight can pan out is not enough - I need to pick one. I actually think Gracie can get Kennedy to the ground and win the fight. I don't think Kennedy has the power in his hands that would be needed to stop Gracie on the feet and he obviously can't submit him. Kennedy may be tough to put away, but if Gracie gets him to the ground, that round is in the Gracie bank. I like Gracie to drag Kennedy to the ground in at least two of the three rounds and dominate from there. Gracie by Decision

Frankie Edgar (1/5) v Charles Oliveira (7/2) - a lot of the fights on this card are close and I have written quite a bit on them during the breakdowns. No need to waste time here. #SquashMatch. Edgar by Decision

Anderson Silva (4/11) v Chris Weidman (11/5) - this fight however DOES warrant the time! I'll g'ahead and say it - this is the most excited I have EVER been for a fight not involving Brock Lesnar. I can't tell you anything you don't already know about either of these guys. Anderson Silva - best striking in MMA and basically Neo from the Matrix. He has done things no other man can. Chris Weidman - elite submission grappler with youth and size on his side in this one. I have changed my mind dozens of times - three times since I started writing this article. But when it came down to it, I just couldn't pick against Spider. A lot of peopleare saying that Weidman can do what Chael Sonnen did. However, Sonnen and Weidman have completely different wrestling styles. Sonnen will take ten punches to drive right through you with a double leg. Weidman prefers clinch takedowns, rarely shooting and preferring the single leg. Can Weidman single leg Anderson Silva five times in a fight - yeah he probably could. Will he manage to go 25 minutes without getting hit once!!? I just can't see it. I just can't pick Weidman. What I will say is this - of all the people picking Weidman, I think 99% of them are doing it to be different. To be alternative. If they get it wrong, they can just say they took a punt. If they get it right, they come off as geniuses. I would think 99% of those picking Weidman would change their tune if they had to put money on it, or had a gun to their head. The first round here is key. I expect Anderson to lose the first round to a takedown but not get badly hurt, but then blitz from there. If he loses the first round BUT does get badly hurt then we will have a new champion. But I don't see it. I see him losing the first round but staying pretty safe, then coming on strong from there. It's ANDERSON FREAKIN' SILVA for goodness sake. Silva by T/KO

This is one of the best main cards I have ever seen. With the exception of the Edgar fight, all the other main card fights could go either way. Unpredictability = excitement. Couple that with the fact that Anderson Silva is fighting (a treat that we may not get many more times), then this is, on paper, the card of the year.

Betting

With so many tough to call fights on the card, we’ll play it safe this week. Keep ourselves in the profit!

£10 on Barboza, Edgar and Gonzaga will double your money to £20

£5 on Weidman at 2/1 – I don’t think he’ll win but 2/1 is a decent price and if he loses, I lost a fiver but Anderson won!! So it’s all good in the hood!

Cheers for reading!

Jimbo Slice