UFC on FX 7 predictions - James Scott

Post date: 18-Jan-2013 16:35:13

Alright guys, thought I would take a brief look at the upcoming show and share my thoughts/picks for the card. Hopefully I can do one for every show and I’ll keep track of how my predicitions go for the year, to see if I know what I’m talking about or, perhaps more likely, I know F all!

UFC on FX 7 predictions

Prelims

Francisco Trinaldo (1/4) v C.J Keith (3/1) – I know nothing about C.J Keith, but one of my golden rules is to never pick someone who does not have a Wikipedia page. Another golden rule is to generally avoid picking UFC newcomers if I can help it (unless they are awesome like Gunnar Nelson) Keith is a UFC newcomer with no Wikipedia page, so that makes this one an easy pick. Especially considering Trinaldo has only ever lost to quality fighters and I might be wrong but Keith is probably not – although at odds of 1/4 there is not much money to be made here. Trinaldo by T/KO

Wagner Prado (1/3) v Ildemar Alcantara (9/4) – look at what I wrote about the last fight and switch Alcantara with Keith and Prado with Trinaldo. Prado by T/KO

Yuri Alcantara (2/9) v Pedro Nobre (16/5) – wow these fights are following a pattern. To add to his woes, Nobre is taking this fight on short notice, as well as being new to the UFC. Add in the fact that Alcantara also has some quality wins under his belt under the Zuffa banner (Omigawa and Lamas) and you begin to see why this is the most lopsided fight on the card when it comes to odds. I’d go so far as to declare Alacantara the first certainty of the year so far! At those odds, he is no value outright, but he will definitely help boost any accumulators up a notch. Alcantara by Submission

Edson Barboza (1/3) v Lucas Martins (9/4) – thankfully, this is the last of the complete unknowns being thrown to the wolves in their UFC debut. Lucas Martins is 12-0, from the Chute Boxe gym and is a pretty sh*t hot striker by all accounts. Unfortunately, Barboza is an even hotter striker! This will be a stand up war but I feel quite confident in saying Barboza will come out on top, although this is not as much of a mismatch as some may think. Barboza by decision

Diego Nunes (4/7) v Nik Lentz (11/8) – now we’re talking. This one represents the first really interesting fight of 2012. Way too good a fight to be buried on the undercard of an FX show but hey ho, that’s how the UFC treats the lighter weight classes and so be it. Lentz is a beast of a grinder and Nunes has some got really nice stand up. Since dropping down from lightweight, Lentz has looked a different animal but not against the highest quality of opposition, it must be said. Nunes is a huge step up from Mitsuoka, If Lentz can get his hands on Nunes, he has the ability to ragdoll him to a somewhat Fitch like victory (nothing wrong with that). However, I think Nunes will be able to stay away and overwhelm Lentz on the feet and win a striking based decision. Nunes might want to stop throwing all his fancy kicks though, against grappling based Lentz. Nunes by decision

Rony Markes (1/3) v Andrew Craig (9/4) – both these middleweights are on winning streaks, but I am a lot more impressed with the streak of Markes. Anyone who can out grapple Aaron Simpson is obviously skilled in that department and markes was winning fights at 205 before he made the drop. Craig on the other hand, although coming off a sensational KO in his last fight, was getting battered before he saved the day with the kick. I see Markes bullying Craig in the grappling department and bagging another decision win. Markes by decision

Milton Vieira (4/9) v Godofredo Castro (7/4) – both these guys are grappling whizzes with a ton of submissions wins under their (black) belt, with Vieira actually being credited as the inventor of the anaconda choke. I think their grappling will cancel each other out. Both have yet to face top opposition yet and both started their UFC careers with a stutter rather than a splash. A difficult one to call, but I am gonna go with Castro, firstly because I just have a feeling (bad grounds to pick a fight) and secondly because it doesn’t do to just pick the favourites to win all the time (an even worse grounds for a pick). Castro by decision

All in all, the prelims of this card are pretty poor with a lot of seemingly one sided matches on paper, although the Nunes v Lentz fight and the Markes v Craig fight have some hint of divisional relevance and are definitely the stand out fights from this portion of the card.

Main card

Khabib Nurmagomedov (4/7) v Thiago Tavares (11/8) – quite a puzzler this one. Nurmagomedov is 18-0 and has all the hype in the world behind him. A lot of people didn’t think he beat Tibau in his last fight, but I was not one of them. I gave him a 30-27 win and that against Tibau is no mean feat. However, I have always been pretty impressed by Tavares and I think his striking might be too dynamic for Nurmagomedov. The key to this fight is Tavares takedown defense. Tibau stuffed all of Nurmagomedov’s takedowns but did not punish him on the feet. If Tavares can stuff the takedown (which I think he can do) then I think he can punish Nurmagomedov on the feet, unlike his countryman Tibau. I might end up looking really stupid for this pick but I think Tavares represents a pretty good underdog pick here. Tavares by decision

Gabriel Gonzaga (4/5) v Ben Rothwell (1/1) – the bookies can barely split these guys and I must say neither can I. Can’t wait for the fight though! I guess what this comes down to is that Gonzaga only really tends to lose to the elite of the weight class (apart from his head scratching loss to Brendan Schaub). Now despite Rothwell holding a victory over the aforementioned Schaub, I don’t consider Rothwell to be elite. I have still not forgotten the terrible/hilarious/epicly bad fight he had with Mark Hunt. I can see Gonzaga coping well on the feet and doing enough to not get grinded down by “Big” Ben. Rothwell, even when his gas tank goes to negative, is very hard to finish so I can see a 15 minute fight here (I seem to be predicting a lot of decisions) where both guys end up pretty badly tired. Gonzaga by Decision

Daniel Sarafian (4/7) v C.B. Dolloway (11/8) – just by virtue of his opponent being the dismal C.B Dolloway, it’s hard to do anything but pick Sarafian here. I wish I knew more about Sarafian as I don’t know enough to back him financially even though he is fighting Dolloway (did I mention how terrible I thought Dolloway was). I fully expect Sarafian to show the world how bad C.B Dolloway is. Sarafian by Sub

Vitor Belfort (10/11) v Michael Bisping (10/11) – the first must-see fight of 2013 in the UFC. I must say I am incredibly excited about this fight and it definitely renders this show a one fight card. Just imagine if C.B Dolloway was main-eventing a show! Ok, enough Dolloway vitriol. What I will say about this fight is I am not going to say the following; Belfort if it finishes early, Bisping if it goes the distance. I hate when people makes picks like that. It is fence sitting and a complete waste of a sentence. If someone makes a pick they should commit to one fighter for better or worse. Now, it is true that Belfort has never won a UFC fight that went past the first round and Bisping has never lost

a fight in the first round. So the big question here does seem to be whether Belfort can land on Bisping early. I have constantly ummed and ah’d about this one and changed my mind as many times as I have blinked in the last few days, and I have absolutely no certainty with this pick, but I think Belfort lands early with authority and finishes Bisping. Bisping was rocked early in fights with Sexyama and Kang and I can see it happening again, except Belfort will not let him recover. Belfort by T/KO

This is a fairly average card, even for an FX show but the Bisping v Belfort fight (a fight that could easily co headline a big PPV) more than makes up for the lacklustre card. The Tavares v Nurmaogmedov fight and the Gonzaga v Rothwell fight are both interesting enough, even if lacking in title picture relevance. If C.B Dolloway gets smashed, it might make me look more fondly upon this card after the show.

Betting

Each week, I will gamble a fantasy £20 on the card and at the end of the year, I’ll tot up how I got on over the year, to see if I actually know my stuff or not! Don’t see these fantasy bets as tips (despite that being what they are), because if they fail I don’t want folk holding it against me! All odds are from Skybet

£10 on an Alcantara, Barboza and Trinaldo accumulator at (1/1) evens – the “safe” bet that I am banking on coming off making the other bets bonuses

£5 on Markes, Prado and Nunes at 1.8/1

£5 on Belfort, Tavares and Gonzaga at 7/1 – a bit mental to go for a 7/1 but you never do know!