UFC 156 by Jimbo

Post date: 02-Feb-2013 20:06:06

Well hello again and welcome to the predictions for this weeks UFC event, UFC 156. Before I get on to predicting easily the most stacked card of the last three years, let’s take a quick look back at how I got on last week.

It was a fairly enjoyable event and, despite my Rampage pick blowing up in my face, I went 8-3 on my picks. Also, there weren’t as many decisions as I predicted, so that was a bonus! Running total so far this year is 14-7

On the gambling front, I hit my first reasonably big bet of the year with a 3.3/1 double on Grant & Lamas both to win. Unfortunately, I burned the rest of my fantasy £20, so only made a measly £1.50. However, if you only backed that tip, you’d be a happy womble. Still a profit is better than a loss. Running total for the betting is +£1.50

Right, onto UFC 156

Prelims

Francisco Rivera (30/100) v Edwin Figueroa (5/2) – Figueroa is actually on a two fight win streak. However, his victory over Caceres in his last fight was only made possible by Caceres having two points deducted by the ref, and even then it was split. Caceres battered him on the feet, and I think that Rivera, a proven KO artist with 3 1st round Kos in his last 4, will be able to do the same. The odds are too steep to justify money on this fight, but I think Rivera wins the curtain jerker of the card. Rivera by T/KO

Chico Camus (8/13) v Dustin Kimura (5/4) – even before this fight was announced, I would have backed Camus. Then, Kimura missed weight, making Camus an even better shout for the win here (writing my picks after the weigh ins certainly helping me out here). Camus showed nice wrestling in his last fight in the UFC and I expect he’ll be able to take Kimura down at will, whose cardio may well wilt under wrestling pressure, due to the clearly tough weight cut. I haven’t seen enough of either guy to bet money on it, a shame as Camus looks good value at the price, but I am confident with Camus here – Camus’ last 4 fights have gone the distance – my kind of fighter! Camus by Decision

Yves Edwards (4/11) v Isaac Vallie-Flagg (11/5) – the first of the Strikeforce v UFC fights on the undercard looks set to be quite the striking battle. Both guys are most comfortable on the feet, but aswell as being in my opinion the better striker, Edwards is also better in the other aspects of the game and VASTLY more experienced. I expect Edwards to dominate the stand up and drop Flagg, but if it’s not going his way, I would expect him to use his well rounded skills to take Flagg down and then submit him. Edwards by Submission

Jacob Volkmann (2/7) v Bobby Green (13/5) – UFC v Strikeforce Lightweight fight number 2 will be nothing like the first of the fights. Volkmann has never failed to take an opponent down at lightweight, and Green does not have the submission ability of Paul Sass, so he is going to be put on his back and unable to do anything about it. Volkmann recently showed his submission skills are coming along and with Green holding only a blue belt in BJJ, I expect this one to end in a tap. Best bit about this fight will be Volkmann’s post fight interview! Volkmann by Submission

Tyron Woodley (8/11) v Jay Hieron (11/10) – this welterweight tilt comes down to one thing – can Jay Hieron stop the takedowns of Tyron Woodley? Woodley is a wrestling specialist who has made ahabit of grinding out decisions, including notable victories over Paul Daley, Tarec Saffiedine and Andre Galvao. Hieron has a reputation for struggling with wrestlers, and he has struggled in the UFC in the past, but has had tough match ups. Hieron only narrowly lost a split decision to the best wrestler in MMA Ben Askren quite recently, and I am actually gonna say that he can damage Woodley on the feet and keep it standing long enough to land enough points of the feet to get a win. I can see this one ending in a controversial decision which will lead to more debate about how takedowns should be scored. Hieron by Decision

Gleison Tibau (10/11) v Evan Dunham (10/11) – definitely the stand out fight of the prelims this one and I’m not surprised the bookies can’t separate this as it is a very close fight. I am a big fan of both guys. Tibau is one of the most prolific wrestlers in MMA, second only to GSP in terms of amount of takedowns landed in the UFC, and Dunham has lost in the past due to his wrestling. I don’t see it this time though. I see this as very similar to the previous fight. I think Dunham will be more successful on the feet against the slower opponent, and if he is taken down he will be very active off his back, threatening with submissions. Dunham by Decision

Overall, apart from the Dunham v Tibau fight, these prelims are lacking in fights that really grab interest from a star power point of view. However, the last 4 fights of the prelims are all very interesting, close and could all go either way. As stacked as the main card is, the prelims ain’t half bad either, and I’ll be sure to tune in!

Main Card

Joseph Benavidez (4/11) v Ian McCall (11/5) – the fact that this battle between 2 of the 3 best flyweights in the world is OPENING the card just goes to show how good this card is. Both of these guys were just a bit too slow to handle Demetrious Johnson, but Benavidez fared far better. I really think Johnson is the only one who can beat Benavidez at 125 due to his unworldly speed, something which Uncle Creepy just won’t be able to replicate. Benavidez is a little bit better in all areas and hits far harder than anyone McCall will have fought before. I see Benavidez taking a comfortable win, reminding everyone why we all expected him to be the first flyweight champ, and convincing everyone that Johnson v Benavidez 2 needs to be made. Benavidez by T/KO

Jon Fitch (4/9) v Demian Maia (7/4) – WOW. The fight that the MMA purists are looking forward to the most. How will the unsubbable grinder Jon Fitch fare against the best BJJ guy in the division and one of the best BJJ guys on the planet. I am a huge Fitch fan, so I’m biased, but I think it’s quite clear how this goes. Fitch will fight like he fights every fight – he is going to take Maia down at will and pummel him with relentless ground and pound. Fitch has had BJ Penn on his back and was never in danger. Maia is awesome, but he won’t have an answer for someone who is fitter, a better wrestler un submittable. I refuse to believe Fitch can’t do what even Mark Munoz could. Fitch by Decision

Alistair Overeem (1/4) v Antonio Silva (3/1) – this is a squash match. Remember what Overeem did to Lesnar? Yeah, me too. Still makes me sad. Silva is slower, a worse wrestler and crucially, has a much bigger (more hittable) head. If Silva makes it out of the first, I’ll be stunned. There is not really much to say about this that everyone doesn’t know. Overeem by T/KO

Rashad Evans (1/5) v Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (7/2) – the second fight in a row featuring a Blackzillian and the second squash match. Nog was outwrestled by Bader and Davis, and Rashad ison a whole other level to those two. I can’t even see why this match was made. Evans win’s however he wants to here, probably using his ability to take Nog down at will, then goes on to fight Anderson Silva. Evans by T/KO

Jose Aldo (2/5) v Frank Edgar (7/4) – firstly, those odds are mental. The first super fight in years, featuring the featherweight champ v the true lightweight champ, is much close than that. Ironically, Edgar, despite cutting down, is still the smaller man. A lot of people seem to think that Aldo is going to blitz Edgar with leg kicks and other strikes. That may well happen. However, Edgar took Penn and Henderson down at will, and even took Gray Maynard down. Maynard hit him as hard as he could and Edgar survived. Maynard is much stronger than Aldo. I think Aldo has success early with strikes, but Edgar rallies in the third and implements a takedown heavy game plan and exposes Aldo’s cardio issues. Whatever happens, I can’t wait for this fight. Edgar by Decision

Nothing else to say about the card except that I am looking forward to it more than any card in recent times. All ten main card fighters are top 10 in their weight class, all ten main card fighters have formerly main evented a UFC show. STACKED

Betting

So, how will the fantasy £20 be spent this week?

£10 on Overeem to win inside the distance, Volkmann and Evans to win at 1.1/1 – this weeks “safety” bet

£5 on Fitch, Benavidez, Volkmann, Edwards, Camus, Overeem and Evans to win at 7.37/1

£5 on Edgar and Fitch to win by Decision at 4.83/1

Could easily lose the lot this week, and the 7 fight accumulator is almost certain to fail, but hey ho, gotta speculate to accumulate…..

JIMBO Slice