The Only Pix That Matter – UFC on FX 8 Edition

Post date: 17-May-2013 13:31:33

“The Only Pix That Matter – UFC on FX 8 Edition”

Alright people, been a while since I wrote a full length article, but my picks have still been being posted on The MMA Show Facebook page (get it liked!). Anyway, before I get started on UFC on FX8: Belfort v Rockhold, let’s look at how I have done in the first 4 months of the year.

There have been 11 UFC events so far this year. My total picks score overall is 75-51 and of the 75 fights I correctly predicted the winner in, I got 33 methods of victory.

So more or less 60% of the predictions I make are correct and in just over a quarter of the fights, I get both the winner and the method correct.

I have gone 8-3 in main events and 5-2 in title fights.

Not bad, but could improve!

If you think you could do better, than why not enter the MMATorch Prediction Contest which I enter every event. I am the current betting champ, so why not try and take my title! Enter at this link http://www.mmatorch.com/artman2/publish/prediction_and_betting_contests/article_16862.shtml

Disagree with my picks? Just generally want to abuse me? Or hopefully thank me for quality tips? Hit me up on Twitter @JimboJitsuSBG

So, on to the first card of May and the first card in what seems like forever!

Prelims

Lucas Martins (4/11) v Jeremy Larsen (2/1) – remember my rule about not backing fighters who don’t have Wikipedia pages? Well, what do I do when NEITHER fighter has a Wikipedia page? I suppose that shows the quality of the undercard at this event. Both chaps are 0-1 in the UFC, and all I have to go on is that Martins lost to a high quality guy in Edson Barboza where as Larsen lost to a lesser quality guy in Joe Proctor. Only thing I know about this fight is the loser is getting sacked. You don’t come to these articles for quality analysis I hope? Martins by T/KO

Jussier Formiga (4/6) v Chris Cariaso (6/5) – it is perhaps indicative of how the UFC views the flyweight division that this fight between two top ten flyweights is on Facebook. Formiga came into the UFC with a ton of hype, but like so often happens to those who build their name in outside organisations, he lost his debut. Cariaso has been around for seemingly years, and only ever loses to future champions or future title contenders. The ultimate gatekeeper! Cariaso has shown susceptibility to submissions in the past and that is where Formiga is strongest. I like Formiga to show that the hype was, at least partially, justified. Formiga by Sub

John Lineker (4/6) v Azamat Gashimov (6/5) – another flyweight tilt to round off the Facebook fights for the evening, although featuring two lower ranked fighters than the earlier fight. Worth noting is Gashimov’s nickname is “Tough Guy”. Best nickname in the UFC? Gashimov is quite the submission whiz and Lineker has shown a bit of vulnerability to submissions in the past. However, I like Lineker to keep the fight standing and use his stand up to dominate proceedings. It’s a flyweight fight though, and John Dodson is not here, so this ain’t ending in a T/KO. Lineker by Decision

Fabio Maldonado (2/5) v Roger Hollett (19/10) – Maldonado is on a 3 fight losing streak. His only recent accolade is that he won “Chin of the Year” for getting battered by Glover Teixeira. What a resume! The fact he is such a heavy favourite is simply due to the fact that Roger Hollett may well be the worst fighter signed to the UFC. His UFC debut against Matt Hamill was one of the worst fights and performances I have ever seen. Hollett

will gas inside a minute and Maldonado will wear him down with strikes. Loser (Hollett) leaves the UFC – not betting a penny on this though, the day I put my money on a fighter riding a 3 fight losing streak is the day I quit. Maldonado by T/KO

Yuri Alcantara (1/5) v Illiarde Santos (7/2) – Alcantara is really really good. Santos doesn’t have a Wikipedia page AND has never fought in the UFC before. Lamb. To. The. Slaughter. Alcantara by T/KO

Paulo Thiago (4/7) v Michel Prazeres (11/8) – Thiago is good. Prazeres doesn’t have a Wikipedia page AND has never fought in the UFC before. Not quite a lamb to the slaughter though. Thiago is on a bit of a rough run at the moment, but I still rate him quite highly, just not as highly as I used to – he has a clear ceiling. Prazeres is 16-0 though on the regional scene so this is a tough challenge, however I like Thiago to pick up a win infront of a crowd that idolise the special forces man. Thiago by Decision

Gleison Tibau (2/5) v John Cholish (19/10) – Tibau is one of my favourites. He is absolutely HUGE for lightweight and virtually impossible to take down. His wrestling, mostly due to his strength is very stifling, although he can be lumbering and looks set to be a gatekeeper rather than a contender. However, Cholish was out wrestled by Danny Castillo in his last fight, and if Castillo can do it, I like Tibau to do it aswell. Tibau by Decision

Francisco Trinaldo (2/7) v Mike Rio (13/5) – watch Mike Rio on the Ultimate Fighter against Andy Ogle and you’ll understand my pick here. Trinaldo by Sub

Nik Lentz (4/6) v Hacran Dias (6/5) – now THIS is a fight worth getting excited about. Since Lentz moved to 145, he has been ragdolling people like no mans business. In Dias’ UFC debut, he beat Yuri Alcantara who is you didn’t pick it up earlier, I am a massive fan of and rate highly. Dias was originally signed for TUF Brazil, but after looking at him, the UFC decided to let him skip the show and signed him immediately – quite an endorsement! Whilst it is perfectly conceivable that Lentz could Fitch Dias, I have a strange feeling that Dias will pull a slight upset here. He is a big step up for Lentz in terms of 145lb competition, and when Dias was brought in, he was initially expected to fight Chad Mendes, and that says to me that UFC brass think rather highly of Dias. Dias by Decision

All in all the prelims represent a typical Brazillian Preliminary card – Brazillian fighters matched against fighters they should beat in order to keep the crowd happy. It is a bit unfair that Brazillians get favourable matches in Brazil cards, but that’s the way it goes when the UFC goes to a foreign market, especially on the prelims. In Brazil v Non Brazil fights, I have Brazillians going 5-0, which says it all about the match making. However, Formiga v Cariaso and Lentz v Dias are exciting, close fights which are worth watching. Yuri Alcantara will get to show off in a glorified squash match and there is some name value lower down the card with veterans Paulo Thiago and Gleison Tibau looking to get back to winning ways. So, overall, a decent set of prelims.

Main Card

Rafael Natal (3/10) v Joao Zeferino (5/2) – Zeferino is taking this fight on short notice. Bad. Zeferino doesn’t have a Wikipedia page. Bad. Zeferino is making his UFC debut. Bad. Natal by Submission

Rafael Dos Anjos (1/2) v Evan Dunham (6/4) – for me, the closest and most exciting fight on the card apart from the main event. Dos Anjos is on a tear and Dunham doesn’t know how to put on a boring fight – indeed I think he often prioritises an exciting fight over a win, which is always sad to see in one sense, but great to watch! Dos Anjos’ last performance against Mark Bocek was a real breakthrough for him, when he dominated the veteran Bocek at his own game. Will he be able to d othe same to Dunham? Dunham has shown a susceptibility to takedowns recently and that may well be his undoing in this one. I think Dos Anjos is on the way up and Dunham is on the way down and I like Dos Anjos to use a combination of wrestling, submission defense and explosive striking to stifle Dunham – however, those of you who like to back live underdogs on

the betting front should look at Dunham as the odds are good in what I see as a 50/50 fight. Dos Anjos by Decision

Jacare Souza (1/6) v Chris Camozzi (4/1) – remember Jacare’s fight against Ed Herman? Jacare against tough UFC vet. Jacare gets takedown and then gets submission. Job done. Jacare is that rare breed of elite BJJ AND the ability to get the takedowns AND the ability to throw hands with power and skill. Poor Camozzi. Jacare by Sub

Vitor Belfort (10/11) v Luke Rockhold (5/6) – really excited for this fight. I initially found myself thinking along these lines; really close fight on paper but Rockhold is a cardio machine and he’ll use that to overwhelm Vitor after the inevitable first round flurry. Rockhold is a really good kickboxer and he’ll be able to get in and out and pick the slower, older Belfort apart. Rockhold will beat Belfort and go onto a title fight. Then I remembered 4 months ago when you could replace Rockhold’s name with one Michael Bisping. That was all true back in January, but I picked Belfort and it worked out pretty well for me. I know everything on paper looks good for Rockhold but I think Belfort’s power at middleweight is terrifying and like his chances of landing the money shot. One thing is for sure – I see the winner of this as the next title challenger at 185. Belfort by TRT KO

This main card is actually pretty good for an FX level card. The final three fights all have their merits – Dos Anjos v Dunham is the sleeper on the card – a very well matched, close contest that could easily be FOTN. Getting to see Jacare assert his Jiu Jitsu dominance is always fun and The Belfort v Rockhold fight is a great main event – close fight, potentially exciting fight and has title picture relevance.

Betting

Since I started with my £100 back at UFC 158, the total in the pot is up to £121.50 – largely thanks to the £45 profit we made at UFC 159 last time out – hopefully that was a sign of a shift in momentum.

That would be a 21.5% increase in your funds if you had backed all my tips. Not bad if I do say so myself. So, how I do plan to keep the pot increasing? Glad you asked;

Tough event this time from a betting standpoint with the only people I comfortably expect to win also being very heavy favourites, and the close matches from an odds point of view also being hard to call, so a conservative week this week.

£5 on Lineker, Trinaldo, Natal, Tibau, Alcantara and Jacare to win at 4.5/1

£5 on Dunham and Cariaso to win at 4.8/1 – I know I picked them both to lose, but they’re good value underdogs and we are in profit, so we can afford to take risk!

In other news....

Remember when I tipped Lesnar to win as a big underdog at 11/4 at Wrestlemania, and he lost to HHH via TKO? My wallet certainly does :-/

Well they are rematching at Extreme Rules on Sunday and this time Lesnar is a massive favourite at 1/7 to win the rubber match of the series (1-1 so far). Strange how it’s the same fighters, but the odds are so massively different this time round. Almost as if the result of the match is predetermined or something?