Realidad Virtual en Tiempos de Pandemia (inglés)
VR has been the "hot new thing" during the past 5 years, but has repeatedly failed to go mainstream. In this short note, we try to understand where consumer VR is headed and touch on 2 or 3 markets which may yet push VR into the mainstream ...
The everlasting niche
Facebook bought Occulus in 2014, and the promise seemed to come ever closer. However, VR headsets from Occulus are now primarily gaming gadgets as opposed to general media-consuming devices. Other headset providers have suffered similar fates, none growing out of niche markets.
In 2019, VR sold globally approximately 6.6m units, meaning a 35% increase versus the previous year. 1/3 of devices shipped which were console-based headsets (like PlayStation VR), 1/3 Occulus - with Occulus Rift being the most popular version - and 1/3 split among hardware maker HTC and the rest of the market. Sony, VR´s largest single headset vendor, has sold approximately 6 million PSVR sets since its launch 4 years ago. Considering there are about 109 million PS4's out there, penetration rate is quite "niche".
When approached about VR, executives from tier 1 firms have mostly coincided that the VR hype was unrealistic, and some even folded their VR-content development studios after years of waiting and venture-capital taste for VR-related investments has decreased since the 2015/6 boost.
The Missing Link
Facebook has discovered that VR is not the immediate next step in chat/communications, and gaming, as we just saw, is a relatively small market providing a complicated and sometimes expensive experience. Some small B2B applications have appeared since - like training security guards for armed robberies - but overall, the list of business use-cases for VR seems low. Therefore, there must be something else ... and that may just be ... sports.
One of the main difficulties around VR is that, because we are dealing with an immersive technology, you "opt out" of the real world to use it. Although this may be more than adequate for gamers, "regular" people need to carve out time from their schedules to "go VR", much like the wonderful futuristic book Ready Player One by Ernest Cline shows. This is where sports hit a perfect chime: people already watch sports, so if you could replace the actual experience with a VR substitute, it could just work.
The interesting part is ... someone is already doing this: NextVR. This company was born launched originally under the Samsung platform Gear VR in 2015, and has an impressive array of over 40 patents and strategic broadcasting partnerships with the likes of the NBA, NHL, WWE, FOX Sports, Live Nation, and the International Champions Cup. Its product is also a combination of VR, video streaming and AR, producing content for all relevant hardware makers. Undoubtedly, this makes it an interesting candidate for acquisition ... by Apple. The rumor is still unconfirmed but seems very likely, as Apple goes on a pandemic shopping spree.
Blurring the Lines
The promise, as intriguing and captivating as it sounds, is to blur the lines between actual sport and virtual reality. So, it's as if you were actually there, without ever living your home - which happens to be very conveniente during our pandemic. This could be the killer app for VR, instead of gaming. Imagine:
- Watching Spain's football derby between Leo Messi's Barcelona and Zidane's Real Madrid, front seats, from the comfort of your home;
- Getting all of the info real-time as you experience first-hand a US Open tennis match;
- Feeling the heat courtside, watching the L.A. Lakers battle Boston Celtics.
There are no limits - you just need to capture the event and either stream it live (great value for an enhanced live experience) or offer it on-demand for later viewing (imagine actually reliving classing Jordan Bull games, or re-live some of Kobe Bryant's Lakers ganes ... or Messi versus Ronaldo for that matter).
Sports meets Sci-Fi?
We have seen this before in apocalyptic sci-fi films like Strange Days (Directed by Kathryn Bigelow in 1995, see Rakph Fiennes' snapshot below), where memories were "recorded" onto discs that actually captured the first-hand experience by connecting a helmet-type device to your head. The problem was, as good as the device was for capturing sports and events, it did just as well with sex and murder scenes, which became extremely popular and expensive.
If anyone was able to capture and package those "experiences", the user/buyer/client could re-live the experience, with a VR environment potentially fooling his senses to believe he was actually there, playing Messi, dribbling Dennis Rodman or serving against Federer. For avid fans, this could be a reward-type experience from the clubs they support, or it could be a new pay-per-view event sold by their internet/cable company. Anyhow, it could be monetized at a marginal rate and provide attractive mass-market economics.
Imagine being able to do all this when we have so much time on our hands during this pandemic and the social distancing/curfew that many governments have imposed. COVID-19 gave the industry an opening, but it appears Zoom, Houseparty and Call of Duty + Fortnite are the few players which were ready to bank on it. VR is still lagging in developing commercially viable use-cases.
The devil, as usual, is in the details - capturing and recording equipments are placed near the action and (not yet) on the actual protagonists. This is not yet a "GoPro" experience, mostly because any kind of intrusive device may obstruct the player's movements. So, we don't yet have access to a high-quality, 360º first-person perspective, but we are getting there. And maybe, just maybe, Apple can push it a bit faster in that direction.
Originally published here.