Mental Models
What
A mental model is an explanation of someone's thought process about how something works in the real world. It is a representation of the surrounding world, the relationships between its various parts and a person's intuitive perception about his or her own acts and their consequences. Mental models can help shape behavior and set an approach to solving problems (similar to a personal algorithm) and doing tasks. If you can better understand your own mental models and those of others then you'll be able to break out of dead end traps to your thinking and imagination, solve problems more creatively, and understand / empathize with the needs of others.
Learning Objectives
Upon completing this module you should be able to:
- apply the "ladder of inference" as a tool for more productive advocacy for your own arguments and inquiry about those of others
- recognize decision-making situations where you might rely on heuristics and avoid the cognitive bias traps that can sometimes accompany them
- apply the different archetypes of the ladder of inference to solve problems such as winner takes all and tragedy of the commons.
Instructions
- Watch the assigned videos and presentations;
- Read the assigned readings;
- Complete the practice quiz or other assigned practice activity
- Complete the assessment;
- Complete the "Mark as Complete" checklist.
Read
Mental Models
A mental model is an explanation of someone's thought process about how something works in the real world. It is a representation of the surrounding world, the relationships between its various parts and a person's intuitive perception about his or her own acts and their consequences. Mental models can help shape behavior and set an approach to solving problems (similar to a personal algorithm) and doing tasks.
The term mental model is believed to have originated with Kenneth Craik in his 1943 book The Nature of Explanation (Nersessian, 1992; Staggers & Norcio, 1993). Georges-Henri Luquet in Le dessin enfantin (Children's drawings), published in 1927 by Alcan, Paris, argued that children construct internal models, a view that influenced, among others, child psychologist Jean Piaget. (Wikipedia, 2020).
In cognition the term "mental model" refers to both the semi-permanent tacit "maps" of the world which people hold in their long-term memory, and the short-term perceptions which people accrue as part of their everyday reasoning processes. Sticking to the cognitions domain, some theorists believe that changes in short-term everyday mental models, accumulating over time, will gradually be reflected in changes in long-term deep-seated beliefs (Art Kleiner in Senge, Kleiner, Roberts, Ross, & Smith, 1994: 237).
Mental models are crucial to entrepreneurship because they influence our perceptions and decision making processes. Mental models logic explains how two people can look at the same circumstances but only one person is able to perceive an opportunity from those circumstances. Recall the working definition of an entrepreneur we use in my classes: "An entrepreneur is a person who perceives an opportunity and organizes to pursue it." As you'll see in the readings that follow, mental models affect the decisions we make. In many cases, our mental models remain unchanged as we continue to use them to make decisions related to them. The decision itself might change over time, but the mental model remains the same. The majority of your decision making and learning processes are based on this so-called "single-loop learning" approach. Why? It's just easier to do it this way. And in many static decision contexts doing so does not usually result in bad outcomes.
But unchangeable mental models can lead to increasingly worse decisions if the environment (context) to which our decision applies is changing. We engage in "double-loop learning" when a situation requires us to change the mental model on which a decision depends. Unlike single loops, this model includes a shift in understanding, from simple and static to broader and more dynamic, such as taking into account the changes in the surroundings and the need for expression changes in mental models (Mildeova & Vojtko, 2003; Wikipedia, 2020). See the FIGURE below for a visual representation of the differences between a feedback system, single-loop learning, and double-loop learning.
Keep Reading
These are "short" reads on systems thinking for incorporating mental models
Goodman, M. 2018. Systems thinking: What, why, when, where, and how? https://thesystemsthinker.com/systems-thinking-what-why-when-where-and-how/, accessed August 14, 2020.
Kim, D. 2018. Introduction to Systems Thinking. https://thesystemsthinker.com/introduction-to-systems-thinking/, (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Kim, D. 2018. Pocket guide: Systems archetypes at a glance. https://thesystemsthinker.com/pocket-guide-systems-archetypes-at-a-glance/, (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Senge, 1990, Mental Models (excerpt from Chapter 10 of The Fifth Discipline)
Sweeney, L.B. 1999. Guidelines for Daily Systems Thinking Practice. (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Figure: Process of learning
Notice in the first figure below that any particular decision is strictly influenced solely by the feedback provided by the real world, the response of the "world" to the decision. Each decision is guided by feedback. (How does this explain trying the same thing over and over while getting the same result but expecting another? You might ask.) The second drawing shows that decisions are influenced by the same information feedback *and* the person's particular decision-making rules about the decision's context. Those decision-making rules are in turn influenced by the person's mental models related to the decision context. Back to the "over and over" question. Could this question be answered by this conclusion: "A person's mental models, and therefore decision-making rules are so unchangeable that they override information feedback that would influence the decision?" I'll go with that explanation. In the third figure you'll see that people engaging in double-loop learning allow the feedback to change both their mental models about the context *and* the decision. Can you see how double-loop learning can be much more valuable to would-be entrepreneurs than single-loop learning?
What can I do?
The double-loop learning model shows the value of reflection, advocacy, and inquiry (discussed in the ladders of influence below) in breaking out of traps and dead ends to your thinking. You can become a reflective practitioner by journaling your experiences, finding a seasoned systems thinker practitioner as a mentor with whom you can discuss the loops in your own life or profession and consider alternative explanations, key questions, data you’d want to collect, and possible interventions (Sweeney, 1999), or create a book club, meetup.com, or other social group for talking through mental models.
Source: Wikipedia, 2020
The Ladder of Inference
The "ladder of influence" shows how rapidly we can leap to knee-jerk conclusions with no intermediate thought process, as if rapidly climbing a ladder in our minds.
We live in a world of self-generating beliefs which remain largely untested. We adopt those beliefs because they are based on conclusions, which are inferred from what we observe, plus our past experiences. Our ability to achieve the results we really want is eroded by our feelings that:
- our beliefs are the truth
- the truth is obvious
- our beliefs are based on real data
- the data we select are the real data
(Senge, Kleiner, Roberts, Ross, & Smith, 1994: 242.)
"The parallels between mental models and ladders of influence with opportunity recognition should not go unnoticed." - Craig Armstrong
Using the ladder of inference
You can't live your life without adding meaning or drawing conclusions. It would be inefficient and tedious. But you can also avoid traps and dead ends by using the ladder of inference more productively by:
- becoming more aware of your own thinking and reasoning (reflection)
- making your thinking and reasoning more visible to others (advocacy)
- inquiring into others' thinking and reasoning (inquiry)
"Invert, always invert"
From Carl Jacobi to Charlie Munger
and Richard Hamming: "After quite a few weeks of wondering what to do I finally said to myself, “Hamming, you believe machines can do symbol manipulation. Why not get them to do the details of the programming?” Thus I was led directly to a frontier of computer science by simply inverting the problem. What had seemed to be a defect now became an asset and pushed me in the right direction!
Grace Hopper had a number of similar stories from computer science, and there are many other stories with the same moral: When stuck, often inverting the problem and realizing the new formulation is better represents a significant step forward. I am not asserting all blockages can be so rearranged, but I am asserting that many more than you might at first suspect can be so changed from a more or less routine response to a great one.
You and Your Research—A talk by Richard W. Hamming—Bellcore, 7 March 1986
In-Class, August 25-27, 2020
What Is the Inverted-U Theory?
The Inverted-U Theory was created by psychologists Robert Yerkes and John Dodson in 1908. Despite its age, it's a model that has stood the test of time.
The theory describes a clear relationship between pressure and performance. In the original research, pressure was exerted by electric shocks – to motivate rats to escape from a maze! (Now we just try to avoid COVID-19)
The Inverted-U Theory gets its name from the curve created when the correlation between pressure (or "arousal") and performance is shown on a graph. See figure 1, below left.
Full article at MindTools.com
Practice
Assessment - Graded Activity
References
Goodman, M. 2018. Systems thinking: What, why, when, where, and how? https://thesystemsthinker.com/systems-thinking-what-why-when-where-and-how/, accessed August 14, 2020.
Kim, D. 2018. Introduction to Systems Thinking. https://thesystemsthinker.com/introduction-to-systems-thinking/, (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Kim, D. 2018. Pocket guide: Systems archetypes at a glance. https://thesystemsthinker.com/pocket-guide-systems-archetypes-at-a-glance/, (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Levenson, T. 2020. Investors Have Been Making the Same Mistake for 300 Years: If Isaac Newton could lose all reason in the pursuit of riches, so can anyone else. The Atlantic, 8/23/202, acessed August 24, 2020
Mildeova, S., Vojtko V. 2003. Systémová dynamika (in Czech). Prague: Oeconomica. pp. 19–24. ISBN 978-80-245-0626-5.
Nersessian, Nancy J. 1992. "In the Theoretician's Laboratory: Thought Experimenting as Mental Modeling" (PDF). PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association. 1992 (2): 291–301. doi:10.1086/psaprocbienmeetp.1992.2.192843. Retrieved 17 July 2014. The contemporary notion that mental modelling plays a significant role in human reasoning was initially formulated by Kenneth Craik in 1943.
Senge, P.M. 1990. The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization. New York: Currency Doubleday.
Senge, P.M., Kleiner, A., Roberts, C., Ross, R.B., & Smith, B.J. 1994. The fifth discipline fieldbook: Strategies and tools for building a learning organization. New York: Currency Doubleday.
Staggers, Nancy, & Norcio, A.F. 1993. "Mental models: concepts for human-computer interaction research" (PDF). International Journal of Man-Machine Studies. 38 (4): 587–605. doi:10.1006/imms.1993.1028. Retrieved 17 July 2014. Although Johnson-Laird (1989) is generally credited with coining the term mental model, the history of the concept may be traced to Craik's (1943) work entitled The Nature of Explanation.
Sweeney, L.B. 1999. Guidelines for Daily Systems Thinking Practice. (PDF on google drive), accessed August 14, 2020.
Wikipedia, 2020. Mental model. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mental_model, accessed 18 July 2020.
Mark as Complete
After you have completed the Videos, readings, practice quiz, and assessment, please return to your course homepage for the next module
- New Venture Finance, MGT 481, Fall 2020
- New Venture Development, MGT X82, Fall 2020
Bonus Material: The Milgram Experiment
Milgram's research showed us to what extent people would be willing to punish / hurt others if they believe an authority will take all the blame and responsibility.