Over the last few weeks, the news has been dominated by the spread of the new Coronavirus. In China, over 50 million people have been quarantined and at the time of writing, tens of thousands have been infected and over 1000 have died. Some experts are saying this disease could grow into a pandemic: a disease that is raging on several continents at the same time. In history, there have been several serious diseases. How does the new coronavirus compare?
When we think of serious and widespread diseases, we often think of the plague. In the 14th century, the bubonic plague (caused by a bacterium called Yersinia Pestis) killed around half of Europe’s population. More recently, the Spanish flu of 1918 spread all over the world and infected around one third of all people on earth. It even affected some very wealthy and important people: the king of Spain died of the virus. One percent of all people in the world died in the outbreak of that disease.
Diseases spread most easily when they start in populated areas that many people travel through and from. How quickly the disease will spread depends on a lot of things. It depends on how it is passed from person to person, but also on the customs, habits and infrastructure of the people there.
We know that the new Coronavirus started in very busy place - Wuhan, China, which is larger than New York City. However, we don’t know much about how it is transmitted and spread yet, or even how serious it is. Right now, people think that it might spread through the air in little droplets that are released when you cough or sneeze. It is also not clear yet how dangerous the disease is. Not everyone who is infected becomes seriously ill.
Yet it is worth remembering that many people who caught the Spanish flu were not very ill either. It is just that so many people were infected that the eventual number of people dying was enormous. This could be a risk with coronavirus as well. Luckily, the most likely ways to prevent infection are pretty simple. People who are sick should avoid public places (stay home!) and everyone should try to avoid touching their face and wash their hands often and well. That is a good tip to avoid the flu, as well as anything else nasty!