Misinformation

COMMENTARY: Russia, War, and the Threat of Misinformation.

By: Brendan Rice | 2/17/22

Recently, the news has been obsessed with Ukraine and Russia and the tense military standoff along the border. You've heard people say, “It’ll be World War 3” or something similar. But upon further investigation, does it really hold up? Will there be war? To put it simply, it's not likely; but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be worried. Not just of Russia, or war, but of the real danger: misinformation.

Some of you may recall a few years ago when the news seemed to be filled with concerns over a draft or a new war in the middle east. This climaxed in January of 2020, when tensions between Iran and the US peaked over the assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. The atmosphere at the time made it feel like war was inevitable, until it was simply buried. By the end of the month, the news was more focused on a certain virus spreading across the globe, and within just a few weeks the whole war situation was forgotten.

Sensationalism in news is nothing new, and it's an effective tool for getting attention and stirring emotions. It's the reason why the tale of The Boy who Cried Wolf has remained relevant over the centuries. The threat of danger is enticing. It’s been said before that today we live in a new culture where news can spread & change fast, adapting with each reshare or post. In many ways, the way information spreads is very similar to a virus, evolving, changing, and spreading faster with each new mutation. The stories can become twisted and sensationalized through online media, until they become the dominant story, overtaking the news by storm.

But the brightest flames tend to burn the fastest, and within a week or so the story can practically disappear from the public eye. This fast paced culture of misinformation can pose a serious threat to our safety at home and abroad. When a culture is so filled with misinformation, the media can become useless as an actual check on power. News that focuses on sensationalism rather than truth may get more views, but at the cost of degrading their image and the value of news in general.

So now you may be wondering, what does this have to do with Russia? Well this isn’t exactly the first time Russia has flexed its muscles. Russia has done the same build up and withdrawal multiple times over the past few years, ever since 2014 when Ukraine's Russia-backed dictator was overthrown in a bloody revolution. Taking advantage of the instability, Russia invaded Ukraine in Crimea with a bloodless annexation and supported pro-Russian separatists in the Donbass region. The reason Russia is so invested in threatening a full scale invasion is because they want the threat of war to keep Ukraine, a former soviet state, out of NATO, an alliance of western nations first made to counter russian influence in europe.

The greatest perk of NATO is that an attack on one member would be perceived as an attack on all; so if Ukraine were to join NATO and Russia were to invade, then they would be risking a total war with the west, something neither side actually wants.

Now is a war possible? Technically yes, but it would not be from a direct order - it would be from a misunderstanding. A similar idea is presented in Dr. Seuss’ “The Butter Battle” which shows how an element of distrust led to an arms race that escalated out of misunderstandings. This is why misinformation can be so concerning. If one side feels they are being threatened, they will act aggressively, believing they are acting defensively. In response, the opposing side does the same until eventually something falls through the cracks and a fuse is lit.

War is certainly a possibility, even if rare. We just don’t know for sure if Russia is willing to risk a catastrophic war, one that could destabilize the entire world. Gideon Jones, a writer for Strife, argued that war is a low probability, high impact event and he continued to use this to compare it to COVID-19. He said that a global pandemic was also a low probability, high impact event and yet here we are nearly two years into what is likely to be the most influential event for the next decade.

Still, war is a distant prospect and as of now, neither side seems willing to be seen as an aggressor. Diplomacy between all sides is still open and most Russians aren't supportive of another war. Misinformation and sensationalism in news can be dangerous, and the threat of war is a serious one that requires careful consideration when it is covered. As this situation develops we will continue to cover it with just the facts.