This 2022 Chinese language report, Short- and Long-Term Outlook for Virtual Digital Humans: IP and Empowerment (虚拟数字人的长短期展望：IP 与赋能), argues that “virtual digital humans” are moving from a metaverse-driven hype cycle toward two durable value tracks: scalable service enablement in the near term and IP incubation/commercialization in the long term; it frames upstream production around three modeling routes—pure manual modeling (highest cost, slowest throughput), device-assisted scanning/capture workflows (mid-cost, widely used for “game-grade” production), and AI-driven modeling (lowest marginal cost but still constrained by realism, interaction naturalness, and supporting speech/NLP/animation tech)—and it links those technical choices to commercialization patterns where overseas markets prioritize identity-type virtual humans as fan-economy IP and consumer avatars, while China currently emphasizes service-type virtual humans (customer service, guided sales, explainers) aimed at operational efficiency and faster monetization such as livestream commerce; the report further claims that in a mature metaverse context, digital humans could reshape interaction modes and business models and function as “digital employees” handling scale that humans cannot, while the practical near-term expectation is earlier mass adoption in specific service scenarios (notably livestream selling and virtual customer service), leading to an investment framing that buckets opportunities into technology providers, IP-oriented content operators, and “enablement” operators with strong marketing/e-commerce capabilities, alongside risks including tighter regulation, intensified competition, slower-than-expected tech iteration, and slower industry development.
Executive Summary / Core Claims
Virtual digital humans are presented as moving from metaverse-driven hype toward practical commercialization.
The report frames two primary value tracks: identity/IP-oriented virtual figures and service-oriented “digital employees.”
Near-term adoption and revenue are argued to be more achievable in service scenarios, while longer-term value is linked to IP formation, content ecosystems, and new interaction models.
Concept And Scope
Working definition of “virtual digital humans” and how they differ from related concepts (avatars, virtual idols, digital employees).
Positioning of digital humans as a foundational interface layer for metaverse-style platforms and digital services.
Industry Development Logic
Drivers of demand: brand marketing needs, content production, e-commerce/live commerce scalability, customer-service automation, and platform competition for attention.
Constraints: production cost, realism/quality limits, interaction naturalness, and uneven technology maturity across the pipeline.
Production Pipeline Overview
End-to-end workflow described as modeling, driving/animation, and rendering/compositing.
Emphasis on how upstream asset creation and downstream real-time performance determine scalability and commercial viability.
Modeling Routes And Trade-Offs
Manual modeling
Highest cost and longest cycle; suited to premium photorealistic or film-grade outcomes and bespoke, high-value characters.
Dependence on specialized teams and lengthy production schedules.
Device-assisted modeling (capture/scanning)
Mid-cost approach intended to improve efficiency while maintaining “game-grade” or high-quality results.
Uses capture hardware and structured workflows; still requires substantial cleanup and refinement.
AI-based modeling
Lowest marginal cost and fastest potential generation.
Bottlenecks noted around realism, controllability, consistency, and the broader maturity of enabling components (speech, language understanding, voice, facial animation).
Driving / Performance And Interaction Stack
Motion/facial driving methods and the importance of believable expression and lip-sync.
Speech recognition, language understanding, and speech synthesis as prerequisites for service-type digital humans.
Real-time constraints and integration into livestreaming, customer-service, or interactive settings.
Rendering, Deployment, And Platform Integration
Differences between offline/high-fidelity rendering and real-time rendering for live deployment.
Integration patterns with livestream platforms, enterprise software stacks, and interactive applications.
Commercialization Models
Identity/IP-oriented virtual humans
Monetization through IP-style pathways such as content releases, endorsements, appearances, merchandise/licensing, and fan economy mechanisms.
Strategic focus on character building, narrative continuity, and brand-safe controllability.
Service-oriented virtual humans (“digital employees”)
Monetization framed around cost reduction, efficiency gains, and scalable operation in repetitive or high-volume roles.
Key scenarios: customer service, guided selling, explainers, and standardized information delivery.
Regional Differentiation
Overseas emphasis on identity-type virtual humans and consumer-avatar demand within social/metaverse contexts.
China emphasis on service-type deployments and commerce-linked scenarios, especially where measurable ROI is clearer.
Application Case Survey
Virtual idols and influencer-style virtual humans as identity-type examples.
Livestream commerce: distinction between high-end “virtual hosts” tied to top creators and scalable AI-driven hosts designed for longer operating hours and lower staffing needs.
Institutional and enterprise use: anchors, explainers, finance/enterprise roles, and standardized service roles.
Consumer avatars and VR/social platforms: demand for large-scale creation of personalized avatars and NPC-like characters, limited by current cost and production friction.
Competitive Landscape And Industry Chain Positioning
Technology enablers: tools and platforms across modeling, animation/driving, rendering, and AI interaction.
IP operators: firms focused on character creation, content operations, and sustained audience growth.
Enablement/service operators: solution providers packaging virtual-human capabilities for advertising, e-commerce, and enterprise scenarios.
Outlook And Investment Framing
Near-term expectation: faster scaling in a small number of service scenarios with clear operational benefits (notably livestream and customer service).
Long-term expectation: digital humans become a persistent interface for digital worlds and services, reshaping interaction patterns and IP economics.
Risks And Uncertainties
Regulatory tightening affecting content and commercialization.
Intensifying competition and commoditization pressures.
Slower-than-expected technical progress in realism and interaction.
Slower-than-expected adoption by platforms and enterprises.