東京新聞に掲載のMangano JJの論文をいくつか、貼り付けておく。彼らの研究では原発の危険性が一貫して出ている。一方、Natureを見ると、議論中という論説があるし、GhirgamG.によると、ドイツでは発がん率の上昇を確認したが、イギリス、フランス、スペイン、フィンランドでは確認に失敗している。
Int J Health Serv. 2011;41(1):137-58.
Radiation and Public Health Project, New York, USA. odiejoe@aol.com
Risks to health from large-scale atmospheric nuclear weapons testing are still relatively unknown. A sample of 85,000 deciduous teeth collected from Americans born during the bomb-testing years assessed risk by in vivo measurement of residual strontium-90 (Sr-90) concentrations, using liquid scintillation spectrometry. The authors' analysis included 97 deciduous teeth from persons born between 1959 and 1961 who were diagrosed with cancer, and 194 teeth of matched controls. Average Sr-90 in teeth of persons who died of cancer was significantly greater than for controls (OR = 2.22; p < 0.04). This discovery suggests that many thousands have died or will die of cancer due to exposure to fallout, far more than previously believed.
85000名から抜け落ちた歯を収集し、ストロンチュウム９０の濃度を調べた。1959から1961年生まれた癌患者97名と194名の統制軍の比較。癌患者はオッズ比で2.22とストロンチュウム90の濃度が高かった。
Arch Environ Health. 2002 Jan-Feb;57(1):23-31.
Mangano JJ, Gould JM, Sternglass EJ, Sherman JD, Brown J, McDonnell W.
Radiation and Public Health Project, Brooklyn, New York 11215, USA.
Subsequent to 1987, 8 U.S. nuclear plants located at least 113 km from other reactors ceased operations. Strontium-90 levels in local milk declined sharply after closings, as did deaths among infants who had lived downwind and within 64 km of each plant. These reductions occurred during the first 2 yr that followed closing of the plants, were sustained for at least 6 yr, and were especially pronounced for birth defects. Trends in infant deaths in proximate areas not downwind, and more than 64 km from the closed plants, were not different from the national patterns. In proximate areas for which data were available, cancer incidence in children younger than 5 yr of age fell significantly after the shutdowns. Changes in health following nuclear reactor closings may help elucidate the relationship between low-dose radiation exposure and disease.
東京新聞はこれかな。1987、1988年から原発を停止した所ではストロンチュウム90の濃度が下がり、原発から64キロ以内の風下に住んでいた児童の死亡が減った。それ以外の地域は米国全体のパタンと異ならなかった。原発を停止すると5歳以下の癌が減少した。
Int J Health Serv. 2008;38(2):277-91.
Radiation and Public Health Project, Ocean City, NJ 08226, USA. odiejoe@aol.com
In the United States, utility companies have recently begun ordering new nuclear power reactors, the first such orders in the country since 1978. One potential site would be the Grand Gulf plant near Port Gibson, Mississippi. In 1983-1984, the first two years in which the existing Grand Gulf reactor operated, significant increases were observed in local rates of infant deaths (+35.3%) and fetal deaths (+57.8%). Local infant mortality remained elevated for the next two decades. These changes match those experienced in the same five local counties during atomic bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s. This report examines potential reasons why an indigent, largely African American community may be at higher risk than other populations from exposure to an environmental toxin such as radiation. It also considers potential health risks posed by new reactors at Grand Gulf.
ミシシッピで1983-1984年に原発が運転されてから幼児の死亡が35.5％、胎児の死亡が57.8％上昇した。
Arch Environ Health. 2003 Feb;58(2):74-82.
Mangano JJ, Sherman J, Chang C, Dave A, Feinberg E, Frimer M.
Radiation and Public Health Project, New York, New York, USA.
Numerous reports document elevated cancer rates among children living near nuclear facilities in various nations. Little research has examined U.S. rates near the nation's 103 operating reactors. This study determined that cancer incidence for children < 10 yr of age who live within 30 mi (48 km) of each of 14 nuclear plants in the eastern United States (49 counties with a population > 16.8 million) exceeds the national average. The excess 12.4% risk suggests that 1 in 9 cancers among children who reside near nuclear reactors is linked to radioactive emissions. If cancer incidence in 5 western states is used as a baseline, the ratio is closer to 1 in 5. Incidence is particularly elevated for leukemia. Childhood cancer mortality exceeds the national average in 7 of the 14 study areas.
14の原発から48Km以内に住んでいる10歳以下の子供の癌の率は全国平均より12.4％上回っている。
Nature. 2011 Apr 7;472(7341):15.
Natureでは議論になっているようだ。一部を引用。
But Edward Maher, president of the US-based Health Physics Society, says that even if the study takes all of those factors into account, its statistical power will be too low.
"We feel that those studies don't have a lot of value," says Maher. "They may make the public feel better, but they're not going to see very low-dose effects." The money would be better spent on more laboratory research, he adds, where confounding factors such as the presence of other carcinogens can be effectively controlled.
“They may make the public feel better, but they're not going to see very low-dose effects.”
統計の検定力が弱く、価値がない研究が多い。人々を良い気持ちにするだろうが、非常に低い放射能の影響は分からない。もっと実験的研究にお金を使うべきだ。
Other experts say that the NAS should build on and improve a 2008 German study (C. Spix et al. Eur. J. Cancer 44, 275–284; 2008), which found a roughly 1.5-fold increase in cancers in children younger than 5 living within 5 kilometres of nuclear power plants. The authors concluded that plant emissions were too low to explain the effect, and similar studies done later in France and Britain failed to show any cancer increase, but some researchers have challenged their interpretation of the data.
ドイツの研究では5キロ以内に住んでいる子供の癌の罹患率が1.5倍あるという研究があるが、原発から放出されている放射能があまりに低く、説明できない。類似の研究はフランスやイギリスにあるが、癌の罹患率が上昇するという証拠は挙げられなかった。
Ital J Pediatr. 2010 Sep 10;36:60.
International Society of Doctors for Environment Alto Lazio, Italy. gi8589pa@virgilio.it
Global warming and the established responsibility of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases represent a strong push towards the construction of new nuclear power plants (NPPs) to cope with the growing energy needs. The toxicity of nuclear waste associated with the extreme difficulty of their disposal and increase in cancer mortality and incidence following occupational radiation exposure are considered the only health problems.
A search of scientific articles and government documents published since January 1, 1980 to July 1, 2010 was performed to evaluate cancer rate and mortality in residents, particularly children, in the vicinity of NPPs.
A recent well conducted state-of-the-art case-control study of childhood cancers in the areas around German NPPs (KiKK study) showed a statistically significant cancers (2.2-fold increase in leukemia and a 1.6-fold increase in solid tumor) among children under five years of age living in the inner 5 km circle around NPPs when compared to residence outside this area. These findings have been confirmed by two meta-analyses. Nevertheless, other UK, France, Spain and Finland studies did not find cancer incidence and/or death increase near NPPs.
Increased cancer risk near NPPs remains in fact an open question. The stronger evidence from the KiKK study suggests there may well be such increases at least in children regardless of the country in which nuclear reactors are located. In fact, few months ago the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission has asked the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) to perform a state-of-the-art study on cancer risk for populations surrounding NPPs.
ドイツの研究では原発の5キロ圏内に住んでいる5歳以下の子供では、白血病が2.2倍、腫瘍が1.6倍で、メタ分析でも確かめられた。しかし、イギリス、フランス、スペイン、フィンランドの研究では、癌の罹患率や死亡率の上昇は確認されていない。原発周辺での発がん率は、依然として議論中である。
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