Summary

Well, you've seen me make a good forecast, and you've seen me make a bad forecast. Along the way, you've learned a systematic procedure for making forecasts. First, get a sense of the overall weather pattern, and how it will evolve before and during the forecast period. Then, check the local weather at the forecast site and understand it if necessary.

Then, it's on to the forecasts, first clouds and precipitation, then temperatures. Your overviews of the situation should tell you what you need to worry about to come up with the precip and temperature forecasts. Finally, check with someone else, such as the National Weather Service, to see if you've neglected to consider something or to see if your estimates are completely out to lunch.

In general, you should compromise between your idea and that of the local forecasters. But don't just put down the local forecaster's numbers: you won't learn about weather and forecasting, and you'll never do any better than the local forecaster.

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