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Next issue: what will the temperature be at the end of the period, when the minimum will probably occur? The thicknesses don't drop too much during the period. At 36 and 48 hours, western South Dakota is in the light blue. At 12 hours the light blue is in central Montana. That means that near the end of tomorrow, the air mass in Rapid City will be similar to the air mass in central Montana today.
According to the 12Z surface map (above) the morning temperatures were in the 30s. I'll pick an estimated 12Z minimum temperature at 48 hours of 36 F. But the forecast period only lasts to 42 hours. With the expected daytime highs in the 40s, the temperature ought to drop below 40 F at 06Z on its way to 36. I'll predict a 06Z min of 39. So my tentative forecast is H: 58 L: 39 Precip: Category 4.
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