Hypothesis Three: Temperature Change = Solar Radiation - Constant Energy Loss

The temperature change is proportional to the solar radiation minus some constant energy loss.

Although it's not stated, let's assume that the constant energy loss for one day is equal to the typical incoming solar radiation for one day, so that there's no net gain or loss of temperature.

What predictions can be drawn from this hypothesis? Check all that apply:

We can test this hypothesis by comparing the graph of solar radiation to the graph of temperature.

Image shows a time series of observations from HOOK

The first prediction seems to be sort of true. The temperature falls fairly steadily, aside from some small bumps, after 04Z, but the sun went down around 01Z and the temperature drop was much more rapid then. The temperature reaches a minimum around dawn, rather than sometime after dawn. The temperature rises most of the day and reaches a peak around 21Z, but it rises most rapidly in the early morning rather than midday.

This hypothesis does okay on some stuff, but not on others. Go back to the list of hypotheses and see if you can come up with a better one.

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